Redskins Mortgage Future For Robert Griffin III

Seahawk fans can drop the pipe dream of the Seahawks trading up for a top QB in this year’s draft. The Colts have already cut Peyton Manning as part of a plan that includes drafting Andrew Luck. And now the Redskins have given up a king’s ransom to move up to #2 to pick Robert Griffin III. Both of this year’s QBs are now spoken for.

In my opinion, this move will be disastrous for the Redskins. I’ve never been sold on RG3 as a top NFL QB. I think his ceiling is much lower than people think. He’ll be good, but I doubt he’ll ever be great. Now, I’ll give you that he’s likely to be better than the QB’s currently starting for around 20 NFL teams, so don’t think that I’m expecting him to be a complete bust.

The problem I have is what they gave up for the rights to get him. The Redskins traded 3 first round picks and a 2nd round pick to the Rams. No trade in NFL history has ever involved 3 first round picks. Let that sink in a little. Never. Not for Elway. Not for Marino. Not for Farve.

If you’re a good team, first round picks need to be above average starters to pro-bowlers, and 2nd round picks better also be starters. It’s pretty simple. If you miss in the draft on the first 2 rounds you’re really missing out. The Redskins just traded 4 potential starters, of which 3 you expect to be very good players, for the right to draft a QB who far from a sure thing.

It’s not like the Redskins are just a QB away from greatness either. We’re talking about a team with no weapons on the outside, and sketchy offensive line, and a very average defense. While Griffin will make them better and provide stability in the game’s most important position, he doesn’t make them even close to being a Super Bowl contender. Instead griffin will find himself on a team that will be unable to substantially improve itself for the next 2 seasons because of the trade that brought him there. Luckily they are in the extremely mediocre NFC East, so they might just be able to contend for a playoff birth anyways.

On the other hand, the Rams will undoubtedly become a force in the NFC West because of this trade. They already have their QB in Sam Bradford, so they aren’t missing out on anything by trading down from #2 to #6. Now they’ll have 3 picks in the first 39 this year, and 2 first round picks in both the 2013 draft and the 2014 draft.

Another way to think of it is that in the first 40 picks in this year’s draft, and in first round of 2013 and 2014, the Rams now have 7 picks while the Redskins have just the one pick that they’ll use for Griffin. Clearly one team will get better because of this trade, and the other team will draft a QB.