There's just no way that Lynch pulls a Shaun Alexander. Credit: Kirby Lee-US PRESSWIRE

Thoughts On A Seahawk Prediction


I have a tremendous amount of respect for Mike Sando. Sure, he wears the ESPN logo these days, and that company tends to be rather clueless on Seattle sports, but Sando is different. He covered the Seahawks for the TNT for years. He gets Seattle, gets the Seahawks, and is one of the few national guys who actually give the Seahawks a fair shake. So when he put together predictions for the NFC West, I was sure to take a look.

I’d love to just post then entire thing, paragraph by paragraph, and comment as I went, but I think that would violate plenty of plagiarism laws. Instead, here’s the link to his article, and keep the quoting to a minimum. I highly recmomend clicking that link and giving his article a read.

Dream scenario (12-4): Matt Flynn’s fourth-quarter comeback victory over Green Bay in Week 3 serves notice in prime time that Seattle made the right move in signing the Packers’ former backup. Sure, Russell Wilson lit up opponents during the preseason, but everyone figured coach Pete Carroll would go with Flynn heading into the season.

He also goes on to talk about Marshawn Lynch and the defense both dominating team’s physically, and how Bruce Irvin becomes a major force rushing the passer. The topper is the prediction for a trip to Green Bay for the NFC Championship.

I had a difficult time disagreeing with anything Sando said in this part. 12-4 seems about right, even if everything breaks Seattle’s way. This team is going to be much better than it was last season, but this isn’t a team with a large margin for error that could win more than that. It’s getting there, but the offense isn’t there yet.

Nightmare scenario (6-10): Flynn isn’t the answer, Wilson isn’t ready and Carroll pays a high price for failing to seriously address the quarterback position until his third season with the team. It’s hard for some to believe the Seahawks would miss Tarvaris Jackson, but that is the case as Flynn predictably struggles in his first full season as an NFL starter.

He also throws in Lynch pulling a Shaun Alexander and tanking it after getting paid, and suggests that Pete Carroll’s job might be at stake if this happens.

This is where I disagree greatly with Sando. If Flynn isn’t the answer, then Jackson will still be one the team. The only way Jackson gets cut is if Flynn and Wilson both show they are better right now, otherwise Jackson sticks around as a safety net.

Even in a nightmare scenario, Lynch’s drop in production should be outweighed by improvements to the O-line, receivers and TEs. Its hard to imagine the Seahawks offense being worse than last season. I think the worst-case scenario is that it is about the same, and doesn’t improve the way it should.

Plus, this defense is scary. Even if Irvin doesn’t make a seamless transition and requires more time to adjust to the NFL, the Seahawks will still be better on defense since they have better linebackers, more experience in the secondary, and an interior pass rush.

You also have to factor in that the Seahawks, especially on offense, were among the most-injured teams in 2011. There’s simply no way that injuries can play a factor in making the Seahawks worse than they were last year.

This is also where it begins to show that Sando is no longer in the Pacific Northwest. Even if the Seahawks go 6-10 in 2012, there’s no way Pete Carroll’s job is in jeopardy. Carroll has the complete backing of Paul Allen to overhaul the roster according to the original plan that was laid out when he was hired, and that includes 2 more seasons before the roster re-shaping should be complete. Until that time, there’s just no use even considering Carroll’s job status.

Tags: Marshawn Lynch Matt Flynn Seahawks Seattle Seahawks Tarvaris Jackson

  • Sammy

    People need to quit worrying about ESPN and “respect”. Does Cleveland get “respect”? How about the Jags? Or Chiefs or Cardinals? If Seattle starts a tradition of winning and going deep into the playoffs, the respect will come. And then, I predict the same people will complain that it’s not *enough* respect.

  • Hawkman

    Sando’s article was good- But I think the down side at worst would be 8-8 if we don’t get hit with the injuries AGAIN. On the upside the 12-4 sounds OK, but I could see where if everything broke our way 13-3 is a possibility. After the draft and FA’s & before Winslow I put down 11-5 or 10-6 ( one game leeway) as my prediction. I’ll stick to that.

  • Hawk_Eye

    I’ve been saying 10-6 since the draft and sticking to it!

  • HughWaltermann

    Keep drinking that proverbial kool-aid.

  • Hawkman

    Win and you will get the respect( or you would think so right?) What pisses me off is that almost every time you turn on the NFL network or ESPN all they ever talk about is the Jets and all the teams to the East of the Mississippi- ( excluding Dallas)  How about we just hear something about all the other teams in the NFL to The West Of the Mississippi !!!

  • Sammy

     @Hawkman Last year’s SB was between two NE teams. The previous was between NFL “royalty”, one east of the Mississippi. Since 2003 there have been 20 teams in the Super Bowl. Only the Seahawks, Raiders and Arizona make the list of teams that play west of Kansas, the country’s geographical center. Of the rest, 13 teams are East Coast teams and the others are Indy and Green Bay. The Jets are big news because of Tebow. Right or wrong, he sells advertising. The 49ers should get press, but they are a boring good team. Seattle, AZ and the Rams were bad to mediocre. The Raiders have been terrible. The Broncos got press because of Tebow and now Manning. And the Chargers got press for once again failing to meet expectations. When New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay or the Giants quit representing the conferences in the Super Bowl, other teams might start getting nods from ESPN and the NFL Network.

  • Hawkman

     @Sammy
     Doesn’t matter who is in or wins the SB. What a lame excuse! There are 32 teams in the NFL and always focusing on the same one’s MOST of the time is ridiculous BS! Just like NY getting an outside SB and now maybe Chicago. What about GB , Seattle etc. etc.   Just another lame excuse by the NFL and those that cover it !!!

  • Hawkman

     @Sammy
     Plus we are talking OTA’s right now and they are still hovering over the same teams. It’s BS!

  • Sammy

     @Hawkman 

  • Sammy

     @Hawkman Don’t get me wrong. I find it annoying, but I understand it. The NFL Network had record ratings last year and Sunday Night Football was the number one rated program of the year, beating out American Idol. Do you think they’re going to start giving extra coverage to Cleveland and Carolina and mess with that formula? Plus, with the internet and blogs like this and Field Gulls, we have plenty of options to get much better coverage. 
     
    As for the 2014 Super Bowl, we all know why it’s going to be at MetLife. Seattle hasn’t even made an official bid yet. Just preliminary meetings. They HAD to wait for the New York precedent. If the NFL is going to experiment with cold weather outdoor Super Bowls, they are not going to start in Seattle.

  • Hawkman

     @Sammy
     I do get the ratings issue  , and I’m not trying to be lame about it, But the could spend a half hour on all the rest and a half hour on the same so-called interesting teams every day. Can’ tell me there isn’t a whole lot of people thinking just like me ? I sure hear it from all my friends.