NFL Power Rankings: Week 3
By Keith Myers
Here’s this week’s Power Rankings based on my mathematical model for what makes teams win in the NFL.
At the top you have the Atlanta Houston and Baltimore* trio that shouldn’t surprise anyone. All three of those teams have managed to win convincingly with some regularity in the early goings this season, and it shows in rankings.
The Seahawks are a huge surprise (at least to me) checking in at #5. Sure they are 2-1, but they haven’t played well enough on offense for me to expect them to be this high. Where the Seahawks do really shine is on defense, where they have the best overall ranking in the league (lower numbers are better in this category, in case you were wondering.)
One of the biggest mover this week, at least in the positive direction, is Arizona. Something had to give with them, they had managed to get to 2-0 despite being fairly poor statistically. Eventually, they were either going to lose, or win in a way in which their overall stats more closely matched their record. The latter happened, and they jumped from #22 to #10.
The Giants were true “winners” this week, managing to jump from #21 all the way up to #5. These rankings are based on composite stats, so that should tell you just how well they played. One week’s worth of stats completely overshadowed the previous two weeks combined. Which,when you think about from a sample size perspectives, that’s pretty amazing.
On the other end of the spectrum is Carolina, who dropped 13 places.
Rank |
Last
Team
Off
Def
PTDif
ST
Power
1
7
Atlanta
12.65
13.7
15.3
20.54
94.9
2
2
Houston
13.65
11.4
15.3
-18.44
91.4
3
3
Baltimore
15.95
13.35
10.4
12.38
90.3
4
5
Seattle
11.95
10.65
6
17.54
81.8
5
21
NY Giants
14.65
15.45
9.6
10.86
81.4
6
13
Chicago
12.15
12
8
15.74
80.8
7
4
New England
12.6
12.25
6
7.54
78.9
8
14
Buffalo
15.2
13.35
2.7
15.24
77.7
9
6
San Francisco
15.1
11.7
1.6
-16.4
74.9
10
22
Arizona
10.8
11.9
9
-14.44
75.1
11
12
Minnesota
13.1
11.7
3.6
-2.8
74.8
12
9
Washington
16.05
15.4
-0.7
-6.74
70.2
13
1
San Diego
12.55
11.8
4
-12.84
70.6
14
17
NY Jets
12.15
13.6
2
13.8
70.2
15
8
Miami
13.5
11.2
-0.3
14.08
71.0
16
10
Denver
12.6
12.05
0
5.94
67.5
17
16
Green Bay
12.25
13.5
1
12.58
66.7
18
15
Pittsburgh
11.4
13.35
0.7
2.76
64.4
19
24
Dallas
13.05
11.9
-2.3
5.12
64.8
20
20
Tampa Bay
11.2
12.35
-2.3
-18.9
61.1
21
18
St. Louis
13.05
13.65
-6
-1.5
57.4
22
23
Detroit
13.4
14.05
-2.3
-22.78
58.4
23
19
Philadelphia
13.8
11.7
-6.3
-20.48
56.7
24
11
Carolina
15.65
13.65
-9
3.28
57.3
25
29
Jacksonville
12.85
13.8
-6
-14.34
56.1
26
28
Cincinnati
15.35
17.2
-5.7
14.06
55.9
27
25
Cleveland
12.65
13.05
-6
-24.26
55.8
28
30
Oakland
12
13.6
-9
1.42
52.9
29
27
New Orleans
14.1
16.6
-6.3
-1.56
52.7
30
26
Indianapolis
12.45
14.55
-7.4
-6.34
50.3
31
31
Kansas City
15.2
15.35
-10.3
-29.02
45.8
32
32
Tennessee
11.1
14.35
-15.4
25.14
42.7
Per request, this week, I’ve decided to show you overall offense and defense rankings, rather than the usual “Yards” composite of those. This is a bit tough to look at, since a better defense will give you a lower number on defense, but people asked to see it this week so there it is.
I’ve also included point differential and each team’s special teams ratings.
*I likely wont get this posted until Friday morning, but Baltimore’s game vs the Browns on Thursday night will not be included.