I can’t say I’m surprised, but Vegas doesn’t think the Seahawks are going to win this week. The early line for the game has them as 3.5 underdogs to the New England Patriots. In fact, the only thing I’m really surprised about here is that it isn’t more.
Remember that Vegas isn’t actually trying to predict the games. They are trying to manipulate how many people will bet on each team. Since most people know that the Patriots are good, and few people outside of Seattle actually know that the Seahawks even exist, you’d think that most people would be betting on the Patriots this week, and thus the line would move more in their favor.
I also read something a while back that said home field was worth 3 points. I think that in this case it would mean that the Seahawks would be 6.5 point underdogs if the game was in Foxboro. That still seems like less than I’d expect, so perhaps Vegas likes the Seahawks more than we realize this week.
Notice I haven’t said anything about my predictions. I save those for Fridays.
Below are all of the lines as of 8:00 pm last night. Teams marked with a * are home underdogs.
|Tampa Bay||-3.5||Kansas City||40|
|San Francisco||-5||NY Giants||44.5|