Oct 7, 2012; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall (right) is congratalted by running back Matt Forte (22) after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

NFL Power Rankings


It’s time for another installment of my mathematical power rankings. Since we have so many new readers, here’s the basics of what this is. About a year ago, I started a massive project looking at tons of different stats and looked for correlation to winning. The result, after months of work, was a mathematical model of how each thing a team does that effects winning. I’ve parlayed that knowledge into a formula for that determines a “power” level for each team based on their stats.

The 49ers take over the top spot this week, just one week after I said I thought the Texans would likely hold it for most of the season like they did a year ago. So clearly I’m good at predicting what my mathematical model is going to spit out each week. The Bears moving up to #2 is also a bit of a surprise. They played so poorly a couple weeks ago that I figured they would never overcome that game enough to get up amongst the elite teams. Turns out it is possible when you play a couple of very bad teams right after that.

The Seahawks stayed at 9, despite their win. I can’t say I’m surprised at this. While they improved slightly overall in their stats, there wasn’t a big change, and what change there was happened to be counteracted by a negative turnover ratio.

Overall, the ranking were pretty stable this week. That is to be expected, now that  we have enough games in the book so that one game’s stats only change them slightly. We’re starting to get a good feeling for which teams are genuinely good, and which teams had a good week or 2, but can’t possibly sustain it.

Rank

Last

Team

Yds

PTDif

TO

ST

Power

1

4

San Francisco

6

16.2

5

-31.4

94.9

2

5

Chicago

2.25

15.6

9

3.06

92.8

3

1

Houston

1.1

15.2

8

-14.4

86.7

4

2

New England

1.35

10.4

10

5.5

85.0

5

6

Baltimore

2.5

8.2

6

0.34

80.5

6

3

Atlanta

-1.7

11

10

4.5

78.7

7

8

Minnesota

2.35

8.2

1

8.16

78.0

8

11

NY Giant

-0.35

8.2

4

8.82

74.1

9

9

Seattle

1.85

3.2

-1

10.36

69.0

10

10

San Diego

1.15

4.4

2

-9.82

68.8

11

12

Washington

2.05

-1.4

7

0.44

66.7

12

7

Denver

0.7

4.2

-6

6.66

64.8

13

14

Miami

2.45

0

-4

8.02

64.3

14

16

Pittsburgh

-0.85

1

2

4.42

62.3

15

18

St. Louis

-0.55

0.4

2

-4.06

59.9

16

13

Arizona

-1.95

3.2

4

-5.28

61.3

17

15

Green Bay

0

0.2

-1

9.16

60.9

18

17

Cincinnati

-0.35

-0.8

-4

13.64

56.4

19

21

Tampa Bay

-1.8

-2.3

3

-11.58

52.4

20

20

Philadelphia

1.7

-3.8

-7

-21.92

51.4

21

22

Carolina

1.05

-6.6

-5

4.96

50.7

22

24

New Orleans

-2.95

-2.6

1

-7.18

49.9

23

23

Dallas

-0.1

-5.7

-7

5.2

48.3

24

26

NY Jets

-2.85

-6.8

-3

23.16

45.3

25

29

Indianapolis

-2.45

-4.7

-4

-5.72

44.8

26

27

Detroit

-0.85

-3.5

-3

-48.08

44.8

27

25

Cleveland

-1.6

-7.8

-2

-1.6

43.6

28

19

Buffalo

-2.3

-11.6

-4

31.16

40.9

29

30

Oakland

-2.1

-14.5

0

5.1

35.8

30

31

Kansas City

-0.4

-10.2

-15

-17.62

33.7

31

28

Jacksonville

-2.5

-14.6

-2

-10.78

31.5

32

32

Tennessee

-2.35

-18.6

-6

14.68

27.5

PtDif = point differential

YDS = yards – this is a collection of offensive and defensive yards per play stats. Due to massive small sample size problems, I had to use a similar form of my algorithm this week for this rating.

TO = turn over differential

ST = special teams rating, calculated from kicking, punting and returning stats

The model also uses 3rd down efficiency, time of possession and a host of other stats that aren’t included in the chart above.

Tags: Featured NFL Popular Power Rankings