Mathematical NFL Power Rankings – Week 11

It’s time for another installment of my mathematical power rankings. With the short week last week for the Seahawks, I didn’t have a chance to get them posted a week ago, but they are back this week.

Since we have so many new readers, here’s the basics of what this is. About a year ago, I started a massive project looking at tons of different stats and looked for correlation to winning. The result, after months of work, was a mathematical model of how each thing a team does that effects winning. I’ve parlayed that knowledge into a formula for that determines a “power” level for each team based on their stats.

Chicago holds on to the top spot in spite of the ugly game with their backup QB getting a plenty of playing time. They have a bit of a cushion over #2, so as long as Jay Cutler isn’t out for an extended period of time, they should be able to hold on to that spot.

I’m a bit surprised that the Texans are down at #4. They look like a very good and complete team on Sundays. What’s holding them back is their special teams play. The same goes for Tampa at #6. Is either of them had competent special teams units, they could be #1 right now.

The Seahawks remain at #12 in spite of a completely dominant performance over the Jets. They ended up getting jumped over by the Steelers, to keep them there, but they also closed the gap between themselves and the group above them. Another game like that, and we’ll see them jump higher in the rankings

Rank

Last

Team

O

D

ST

Power

1

1

Chicago

13.5

12.4

6.56

90.1

2

3

San Francisco

16.4

11.65

2.76

87.4

3

2

New England

13.85

13.8

6.96

87.2

4

4

Houston

13.15

12.15

-8.64

87.1

5

8

Denver

13.9

11.9

12.9

77.4

6

6

Tampa Bay

15.2

13.35

-10.64

76.7

7

11

Baltimore

13.95

13.15

7.68

76.5

8

5

Atlanta

13.6

15.05

-0.42

75.3

9

9

Green Bay

13

12.8

12.86

73.9

10

7

NY Giant

13.8

14.7

-9.32

70.6

11

14

Pittsburgh

12.8

11.9

4.32

69.3

12

12

Seattle

13.85

12.55

0.9

67.3

14

10

San Diego

13.15

12.5

-2.04

63.4

15

15

Minnesota

14.2

12.65

2.52

62.1

16

16

Washington

15.65

14.2

-1.46

61.5

17

17

Miami

12.8

12.7

12.12

56.2

18

23

Detroit

13.35

13.3

-11.66

55.7

19

19

Cincinnati

13.15

14

6.74

53.8

20

25

Dallas

13

13.65

15.14

53.7

21

13

New Orleans

13.75

16.25

-4.4

53.6

13

22

Cleveland

12.05

13.35

7.88

51.3

22

21

Arizona

11.4

13.2

-10.16

50.8

23

18

Carolina

14.3

13.35

-0.64

50.0

24

26

Indianapolis

13.15

14.45

-6.72

49.2

25

24

St. Louis

13.6

13.55

-11.6

48.9

26

27

NY Jets

12

13.5

7.24

46.9

27

30

Tennessee

13.7

14.3

7.6

45.4

28

20

Philadelphia

13.5

13.2

-23.36

41.3

29

29

Buffalo

14.75

15.85

14.1

40.5

30

28

Oakland

12.45

14.1

-14.48

36.7

31

32

Jacksonville

11.45

13.5

-6.08

32.0

32

31

Kansas City

13.2

15

-3.96

26.8

D - Index of many defensive stats, including yards rushing attempts and yards per passing attempt. Lower numbers are better, since that means the D gave up fewer yards.

O – Index of many offensive stats, including yards per rushing attempts and yards per passing attempt

ST – index of many special teams stats, including yard per return, both offensively and defensely, for both punts and kick returns.

The power ranking is also constructed with 3rd down efficiency  turnovers, points, pass rush efficiency  and a host of other stats that aren’t included in the table above.

Topics: NFL Power Rankings, Seattle Seahawks

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  • ricefield

    Hawks should go at least 4-2 and with both Cutler and Smith with concussions it could be 6-0. Let’s hope they don’t play down to the opposition like they did to the Rams and Cards when they play the Dolphins and Bills on the road. GO HAWKS.

  • Erik

    Tampa Bay at 6?

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