November 18, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Kevin Walter (83) makes a reception during the fourth quarter as Jacksonville Jaguars outside linebacker Russell Allen (50) attempts to make a tackle at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

Mathematical Power Rankings – Week 12


It’s time for another installment of my mathematical power rankings. With the short week last week for the Seahawks, I didn’t have a chance to get them posted a week ago, but they are back this week.

Since we have so many new readers, here’s the basics of what this is. About a year ago, I started a massive project looking at tons of different stats and looked for correlation to winning. The result, after months of work, was a mathematical model of how each thing a team does that effects winning. I’ve parlayed that knowledge into a formula for that determines a “power” level for each team based on their stats.

Last week, the Bears were a full 3 points clear of field, and I said that they probably would be able to keep the top spot even if they lost to the 49ers. Clearly I didn’t expect them to get completely undressed in that game. The Bears were so bad that they dropped by 20 points. That much movement in 1 game, this late in the season is really hard to do. It shows you just how poorly they played.

The Seahawks moved up 2 places by not playing. Or, more accurately, the Steelers and the Giants both played poor enough to drop down beneath them. This Sunday’s road game against the Dolphins should give Seattle a chance to vault back up amongst the league’s elite teams.

Rank

Last

Team

Yds

PTDif

ST

Power

1

2

San Francisco

4.9

11.1

3.84

89.3

2

3

New England

0.3

13.3

18.6

88.6

3

4

Houston

1.2

11.3

-0.42

83.6

4

5

Denver

2.1

8.9

12.12

79.1

5

1

Chicago

0.4

8.4

5.44

77.8

6

7

Baltimore

0.45

6.1

14.28

74.0

7

9

Green Bay

0.15

5.6

13.34

73.2

8

6

Tampa Bay

1.65

5.7

-9.94

71.8

9

8

Atlanta

-1.55

7.7

0.9

70.4

10

12

Seattle

1.3

3.7

0.9

67.0

11

10

NY Giant

-0.9

5.1

-9.32

66.9

12

11

Pittsburgh

1.15

2.7

-4.3

66.9

13

16

Washington

2.15

0.3

-0.3

66.2

14

15

Minnesota

1.55

1.7

2.52

63.4

15

14

San Diego

0.2

1.1

-2.24

60.9

16

19

Cincinnati

-0.45

1.1

4.28

59.1

17

21

New Orleans

-2

1.4

-1

59.0

18

20

Dallas

-0.6

-1.3

12.84

56.8

19

18

Detroit

0.1

-1

-12.54

55.5

20

17

Miami

-0.4

-1.8

7.92

55.3

21

26

NY Jets

-1.05

-3.9

6.02

52.6

22

23

Carolina

0.7

-5.9

1.12

52.5

23

22

Arizona

-1.5

-3.3

-8.28

52.0

24

13

Cleveland

-1.05

-4.5

6.48

51.9

25

29

Buffalo

-0.7

-6.9

18.1

47.9

26

25

St. Louis

0.15

-6.3

-11.6

47.6

27

27

Tennessee

-0.6

-9.2

7.6

46.4

28

24

Indianapolis

-1.45

-5

-19.06

44.0

29

28

Philadelphia

-0.45

-9

-21.5

39.9

30

30

Oakland

-1.65

-11.4

-18.12

34.9

31

31

Jacksonville

-1.95

-12.5

-11.54

34.2

32

32

Kansas City

-1.85

-13.2

-1.98

31.6

Yds – created by subtracting the Defense index from the offense index. Positive numbers means the offense get more yards per play than the defense gives up. Weighted by type of play.

PtDef – Point Differential per game.

ST – Index created by combining many special teams stats

Formula contains many, many more stats than are included in this table. I just included the ones I wanted to.

Tags: Featured NFL Popular Power Rankings Seattle Seahawks