Dec 23, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks tight end Anthony McCoy (85) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers during the 2nd quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Mathematical NFL Power Rankings


Time once again for my mathematical power rankings. If you’re new here, or haven’t been paying attention, these are based entirely on stats.  About 30 season stats, are combined into 1 meta-stat (power) and the teams are ranked accordingly. There’s no popularity contest going on here.

As expected, Seattle jumped up over the 49ers into the #2 spot. The did so by improving in almost every statistical category, which is an amazing feat by itself, especially against a team as good as San Francisco.

I didn’t expect Seattle to be able to make up the entire 8 point deficit and catch the Patriots, who have had a strangle hold on the #1 spot for a month now. They did make it close, and are now just 2 points back. Pretty impressive considering how poorly the Seahawks offense played the first month of the season, and considering that the Seahawks have played a much tougher schedule than the 49ers have.

I want to highlight one statistical category that tells an interesting story for this season. There are 3 teams who average scoring more than 10 points per game more than their opponents. Seattle is one, and the others are New England and Denver. It’s an interesting indicator of dominance, but it doesn’t the tell the entire story here. Both of the AFC teams play in completely awful divisions. If you look at the strength of schedule, the Seahawks have had the substantial more difficult road of those 3 teams.

Rank

Last

Team

PF

PA

PTDif

ST

3rd%

Power

1

1

New England

35.3

22.1

13.2

13.82

8.5

89.6

2

3

Seattle

26.1

15.5

10.6

3.56

0.5

87.6

3

2

San Francisco

24.7

17.3

7.4

4.3

2.1

86.9

4

4

Denver

29.5

19.1

10.4

9.24

13.6

83.7

5

6

Chicago

23.3

16.9

6.4

9.4

2.8

78.4

6

5

Houston

26.7

20.2

6.5

-1.96

6.1

77.7

7

10

Green Bay

26.6

19.9

6.7

10.58

4.6

76.7

8

7

Washington

27.2

24.7

2.5

5.98

-8.4

76.2

9

8

Atlanta

26.8

18.5

8.3

-1.52

6.6

74.6

10

11

Baltimore

25.4

21.4

4

8.1

1.2

73.4

11

9

Cincinnati

24.5

20.2

4.3

4.18

-2

71.7

12

13

Minnesota

22.8

20.9

1.9

4.24

-4.6

69.5

13

12

NY Giant

25.8

22.5

3.3

-3.1

-3.8

67.5

14

15

Carolina

20.9

21.7

-0.8

1.82

5.2

66.4

15

16

Pittsburgh

20.8

20.3

0.5

-5.2

6.5

63.8

16

14

Tampa Bay

24.5

25.1

-0.6

-10.76

-6.3

63.8

17

19

San Diego

21.7

21.9

-0.2

0.18

-2.4

62.2

18

20

Miami

19.2

19.3

-0.1

2.2

2

61.4

19

17

New Orleans

28.2

27.3

0.9

-6.26

8.1

61.0

20

18

Cleveland

19.5

22.9

-3.4

16.58

-7.3

59.0

21

22

St. Louis

19.1

21.9

-2.8

-10.28

-4.5

57.9

22

21

Dallas

23.9

24.8

-0.9

1.5

3.4

56.6

23

23

Detroit

23.2

27.4

-4.2

-8.06

4.8

53.2

24

24

NY Jets

18.1

23.1

-5

1.74

0

51.1

25

28

Indianapolis

21.9

24.7

-2.8

-5.2

4

49.7

26

26

Buffalo

21.1

28.4

-7.3

9.06

-6

49.4

27

27

Arizona

15.8

22

-6.2

-3.28

-8

46.7

28

25

Tennessee

19.5

30.1

-10.6

-2.62

-1.5

46.4

29

29

Philadelphia

18.2

26.8

-8.6

-9.84

-2

44.8

30

30

Oakland

17.9

27.9

-10

-15.62

-6.6

42.1

31

31

Jacksonville

15.7

27.1

-11.4

-9.44

-12.8

40.8

32

32

Kansas City

13.9

25.8

-11.9

-16.2

-4.6

36.1

Concentrating on points in the table this week.

PF – Points for per game

PA – Points against per game

PTDEF – point differential per game.

ST – Special team’s index. Combination os all parts of special teams play.

3rd% – The difference between 3rd down efficiency and defensive 3rd down efficiency.

There are also about 30 other things involved in determining the power level for each team. Those 5 are just the ones I wanted to include in the table this week.

Tags: NFL Power Rankings Seattle Seahawks