September 30, 2012; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola (16) avoids Seattle Seahawks free safety Chris Maragos (42) on a punt return during the first half at the Edward Jones Dome. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

Predicting The First 15 Cuts For The Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks will be cutting down their roster from 90 to 75 tomorrow afternoon. I figured that was as good of an excuse as I’ll probably find to make a fool of my self by trying to predict the 15 players that will be cut by Saturday’s deadline.

Before I started looking for players who could be let go, I wanted to go over some of the criteria that leads to players getting cut in the drop to 75. It’s not always just the bottom 15 players on the roster.

Veterans: This is something we saw a year ago with Terrell Owen and Duece Lutui. Veteran players who aren’t going to make the team tend to get cut in this first round of cuts. This is presumably to give them extra time to catch on with another team. Consider it a professional courtesy.

Camp Bodies: These are players who never had any real chance to make the roster, but were here entirely to help use up some of the reps in practice. This is especially true for those here to cover for injured players who are now returning to practice.

Cap and trade effects: There are players who fit the above requirements but wont be on the chopping block yet because the team will look to trade them before cutting them. There are also players whom you wouldn’t count in the “veterans” category, but are there because of their cap number.

Other Considerations: Keep in mind that there will still be another preseason game after this round of cuts, and that the starters generally don’t play very much, if they play at all. Team will keep players beyond this round of cuts that have zero shot at the roster just to make sure that certain roster players aren’t stuck playing too many plays in that game. This is why Brady Quinn wont be cut now, he’s going to be needed to play a half next week.

One that thing I should point out before I get into the names: I am generally terrible of predicting the cut down to 75. If you disagree with my assessment here, that’s probably a good thing. Last year, I think I got only 8 of 15 right, though I believe that the other 7 were cut in the drop to 53, so at least I didn’t miss that badly.

Here are the players I expect to not make the drop to 75:

TE Andrei Lintz

TE/LB Jameson Konz

WR Donavan Kemp

WR Brett Swaine

WR Perez Ashford

WR Arceto Clark

OG Jared Smith

DT Michael Brooks

DT Parker Martin

LB Heath Farwell

LB Craig Wilkins

LB Ty Powell

CB Ron Parker

FS Chris Maragos

LS Kyle Nelson

Maragos and Farwell are the names on the list, but both are overpaid and have been outplayed in camp by young/cheaper players. Other than them, I’m not sure any of the other players will be missed all that much.

Because of the injuries Clemons, Avril, Hill, McDaniels, and Williams, I stayed away from cutting too many defensive linemen. This actually made it fairly tough to find 15 players. The defensive backfield was also tough to pull players from, because the CBs who aren’t going to make the roster have trade value, so I don’t think they’ll drop any besides Parker now.

The battles on the O-line and the fact that I think that all the RB will make the roster, along with what I mentioned in the last paragraph, left the LB and WR positions both being hit hard with cuts. Ultimately this is likely why my predictions are probably wrong. I couldn’t pull the trigger on guys like Seymore or Person, but John Schneider doesn’t seem to have that problem.

I’m sure this is way off. Feel free to tell me where you think I went wrong.

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  • Eddie Clark

    I would have cut Brady Quinn in this round, T-Jack is the clear winner for the back up QB and this give Brady time to find a new team.

    • 12thMan_Rising

      I thought about that, but Wilson likely wont play much at all in the 4th PS game. Without a project 3rd stringer on the roster to eat some snaps, that means the Jackson would have had to play the entire game. That puts him at risk of injury, and leaving the team w/o a backup for week 1.

      It’s certainly possible, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger on doing that one this early. It’s probably that kind of 2nd guessing that leads to me being wrong so much on predicting this first round of cuts. We’ll see.

  • Ug

    Based on what little I know, your list very closely echos my feelings for the team. Maragos & Farwell will both make some other team better should it come to them getting cut in Seattle. My personal preference would be to cut ties with TE Luke Wilson and his aversion to running under the ball, then promote McGrath & Helfet. I suppose it’s too much to ask that they consider cutting James Carpenter, who isn’t healthy often enough to actually be counted on if Paul McQuistan should go down or if Paul should be forced to play a different position. Eight of fifteen though is pretty good.

    • 12thMan_Rising

      Willson wont be going anywhere. He’ll figure out the long passing thing at some point. I think it has more to do with the fact that he hasn’t played in over a year because he was injured last season. Besides, Helfelt and McGrath aren’t special, and Willson can be with time and development.

      I also don’t think they cut Carpenter. The guy is simply too good (at OG, not OT) when healthy. He has a chance to be special, and the team will be extremely patient with that type of potential.

      • Ug

        Thanks for the interesting conversation, but here are my other concerns:

        First the 53/45 man roster rules doesn’t allow for a team to keep too many ‘developmental players’ while remaining competitive during the season, and that’s why I’d prefer shelving Luke Wilson on the practice squad, besides if you want a receiver then get a receiver, and the team has a plethora of those already. Speed is always a good thing but McGrath & Helfet can block too, and I do put more importance on blocking at the tight end position.

        My second major concern is that expecting our team’s offensive line to play two years in a row without any major injury is perhaps a little to optimistic. Both Okung & Carpenter missed so much time during their first two years, and Unger wasn’t immune either. Sweezy is still a bit of an unknown, but we do know that McQuistan is one healthy SOB who can fill in at four of the five offensive line spots, and he might have to do so at some point. Should that happen, do you really want to risk a ‘revolving door’ on the entire left side of the offensive line yet again? Carpenter might step in for two games, half a game, or maybe only one play. Alvin Bailey has shown that he can play OT & OG already, so I see more upside potential in him than I do Carpenter.

        Just some items to think about. I expect that you are probably right though.

      • JJ Allen Keller

        I really like McGrath, but it is probably not for any good reason. I think he is a fine 3rd guy though. Scrappy.

  • DRRL

    Brooks played well enough last game to last until the final cut, especially with so many DL either out or iffy: Williams, Hill, Avril, Irvin, Clemons. I think you’re right about Quinn though. We’ll see him in the final preseason, but for the last time.

    • 12thMan_Rising

      Brooks was my 15th cut. I was stuck on 14 for a couple hours and just couldn’t figure out a 15th. I finally added him since he’s not making the 53, and the team has 2 new guys at the position that they need to look at. Honestly though, I doubt he gets cut at this point. I just couldn’t figure out someone else.

  • JJ Allen Keller

    I think Maragos makes it. Good on ST, and without Farwell that will be nice to have. Powell may get another look as well just because he was a pick.

  • Hawkman54

    They should keep Harwell- Maybe they should cut Sweezy or trade him, HE Was TERRIBLE last night . Four penalties , four blown assignments and just played horribly! The team played better last year every time Moffitt came in and out went Swezzy , maybe they should have traded Sweezy instead of Moffitt!

    • Ug

      I was hoping Moffitt would be groomed as the backup center instead of Jeanpierre (who also had multiple nonsense penalties). Not sure who “Harwell” is, possible typo? I’m thinking that Sweezy isn’t quite refined yet, but also betting that he can throw some pancake blocks once he…sort of gets it.

      • 12thMan_Rising

        I’m hoping someone else end up as the backup center just because I’m tired of misspelling Jeanpierre’s name. Seriously, why can’t this team have more people named Smith, Jackson, or Green? Help a writer out here!

  • Ug

    Eight cuts made this morning & seven of them were on Keith’s list above. The only one that wasn’t…Kyle Knox. Seahawks(dot)com had Knox listed on the depth chart page but not on the actual roster page (makes me wonder what Paul Allen does for a living). Since they can’t get their own team roster correct, I’m giving you an eight for eight score so far.

    I’m sure you they have your number & you’re likely on the phone with the team already, but if not, let me know. I’ll have my ‘people’ handle the rest for you. Dang we’re good!

    • 12thMan_Rising

      I also didn’t expect Jesse Williams to get sent to IR yet. thought that would happen at the cut down to 53. He and Knox have me at 6 of 8, which is just 75%. I guess that’s a C grade so far, which is much better than I did a year ago.

      • Ug

        Give yourself a break man! Jessie Williams didn’t cut from the roster, he just will not play this year. Any chance they could cut Cliff Avril in your opinion? Looks like he is a $3,750,000 cap hit this year, with $6,000,000 in dead money. I never really understood how that worked.

        • 12thMan_Rising

          That means he counts way more against the cap if cut then if they cut him. He’ll stay.

        • 12thMan_Rising

          also, I prefer the self depreciating jokes to being a “I called it” guy every time. Never want to be that guy.