Aug 29, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) runs with the ball while being chased by Oakland Raiders free safety Usama Young (26) during the 1st half at CenturyLink Field. Seattle defeated Oakland 22-6. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Week One: Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under


In the first ever edition of what I’m hoping to be a regular series (you may or may not have noticed that I like to do things by the series) today I am proud to unveil “Week One: Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under”. The purpose of this series is to examine the fantasy projections for major Seahawks players and give a prediction as to whether they will perform better or worse than expectations. For each player I will look at their fantasy projections from NFL.com Fantasy and Yahoo Fantasy Football, average the two, and make a quasi informed prediction as to whether they will perform above expectations or fall tragically short. Appropriately we begin at quarterback.

Russell Wilson

Projection Source

Passing Yards

Passing Touchdowns

Interceptions

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

143

2

0

15

0

15.22

Yahoo

218

1.7

0.7

35.5

0.2

18.94

Average

180.5

1.85

0.35

25.25

0.1

17.08

Prediction: Over. Russell Wilson threw for 221 yards the last time these two teams met so I think the projections on passing yardage are very conservative. The Carolina Panthers were in the top half of both rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns allowed which means I think that Wilson will have to throw the ball a little bit for this offense to really move the chains.

The next player to examine is the fantasy stud on this roster, creator of earthquakes and destroyer of Skittles:

Marshawn Lynch

Projection Source

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

151

1

0

0

21.10

Yahoo

87.3

0.6

11.6

0.1

13.56

Average

119.15

0.8

5.8

0.05

17.33

Prediction: Under. I hate to question Lynch but I think that NFL.com was overzealous in their projection by a wide margin. The Carolina defense only gave up 11 rushing TD’s last year and barely over 100 yards a game on the ground. 17.33 fantasy points is not outside the realm of possibility, but it’s a little rich for my tastes.

Now we move on to the receivers, or more specifically the receivers worth owning in fantasy terms, which at the moment is only Sidney Rice and Golden Tate, starting with the former Viking:

Sidney Rice

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

14

1

7.40

Yahoo

46.3

0.4

7.07

Average

30.15

0.7

7.24

 

Prediction: Over. Although the projection systems seem to be more sure that Rice will get a touchdown than I am, I’m not sure 72 yards isn’t out of reach even if he doesn’t hit pay dirt. I don’t think there is a corner on the Panthers who can shut down Rice and, as I mentioned before, I think the Seahawks take to the air in this game.

Golden Tate

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

38

1

9.8

Yahoo

51.5

0.4

7.9

Average

44.75

0.7

8.85

Prediction: Under. In fantasy circles it seems like people have arbitrarily decided that Golden Tate is Seattle’s go-to receiver. I’m not so sure that’s the case. I think that Rice is still top dog until Harvin returns so this projection seems inflated to me. Tate will almost definitely have to score a touchdown to make this projection (He has only topped 88 yards receiving twice in his career) and that’s no sure bet in my book. I like Golden Tate a great deal as a player but this seems a bit much.

The next player to be examined is the Seahawks tight end who sits on the fringe of ownability, Zach Miller.

Zach Miller

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

26

0

2.60

Yahoo

38.1

0.3

5.61

Average

32.05

0.15

4.11

Prediction: Over. 32.05 yards seems like a fairly estimate for Zach Miller but this projection definitely understates the likelihood of him scoring a touchdown. Miller has a TD in 3 of his last 6 games (including playoffs) and his performance in the 2012 playoffs (12 catches 190 yards and 1 TD in two games) might just be the harbinger of things to come in 2013. Even if it’s not, Miller is too talented to be pegged with a borderline insulting 4.11 fantasy point projection.

Unfortunately, NFL.com and Yahoo use different scoring systems for defense so it is impossible to average the two. That means we are sticking to skill players for now. I suppose I might make a comment about the kicker but nobody likes to talk about kickers, whether in fantasy or real life.

This week I’ve predicted that three Seahawks will produce above their projections and two will fall below them. That feels about right, although most predictions do at the moment we make them. Whether said predictions are remotely accurate remains to be seen. The answers will reveal themselves on Sunday.

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  • G

    Very useful. Would you start Greg Jennings or Rice for WR3? And Brandon Myers or Miller at TE?

    • Nick Ashbourne

      I would take Rice over Jennings. I have no faith in Jennings after a rough year last year and there is pretty much no reason for Minnesota to pass the ball, ever. I like Myers Week One as I could see Cowboys-Giants being a shootout, also even though I like Miller to have a better year catching the ball in 2013 it’s hard to ignore that Myers had over twice as many yards as Miller in 2012. Myers is also going to a better offense. I think he’s a nice guy to have overall.

  • Ug

    I have teased, chastised, suggested, begged, & pleaded my case for some real Seahawk analysis on this website. You answer back with ‘fantasy’ football instead! Are all of you deaf, hard of reading, or do you just not get it?

    • Ug

      I’m deleting the this site from favorites/memory right now, and ‘G’ is a dumb ass.

    • G

      Sorry, I didn’t want to bother you

    • Nick Ashbourne

      Unfortunately we cater to more than one person on this website. Sorry we weren’t up to your exacting standards

  • JiveTurkey

    I’ve been stumped as to if I should start Wilson over Aaron Rodgers. I mean San Fran’s defense has some new depth/nursing some injuries, and the Packers will be looking for vengeance from last year, but Carolina’s D is nowhere near the level of the 49ers. Every pundit has Rodgers picked WAY over Wilson, but I’m really on the fence. Any thoughts?

    • 12thMan_Rising

      This article is making me think I should consider a fantasy open thread over here. I would give the boring answer and say you’ve got to go with Rodgers. Part of what makes Russell Wilson so great is his efficiency and how he does with relatively few passing attempts. However, fantasy rewards volume not efficiently. Guys like Rodgers who throw a ton will but up more yards and touchdowns and as a result more points. Tony Romo is a much better fantasy quarterback than a real life quarterback for this reason. The 49ers are tough but Rodgers will still put up his points I suspect.