Week Two: Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under

Aug 29, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks tight end Zach Miller (86) and quarterback Russell Wilson (3) walk off the field after the game against the Oakland Raiders at CenturyLink Field. Seattle defeated Oakland 22-6. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

In the second edition of “Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under” I plan to look at how the Seahawks can be expected to do against a tough 49ers defense. This week I’ll be adding a player to the list of those analyzed here, Doug Baldwin, on the strength of his Week One performance. At the end we’ll take a look at how I strong my predictions went last week (Spoiler Alert: They were mediocre). Sounds good? Away we go, starting, as ever, at quarterback:

Russell Wilson

Passing Yards

Passing Touchdowns

Interceptions

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

253

1

0

71

0

21.22

Yahoo

222

1.5

0.6

33.9

0.1

18.08

Average

237.5

1.25

0.3

52.45

0.5

19.65

Prediction: Under. The passing projects here look downright reasonable, a bit low on touchdowns (I think he gets two in this game) but also low on interceptions. What I can’t buy is the rushing yardage. Yahoo’s projection looks feasible but steep and NFL.com’s projection is insanity. I think Wilson can move the ball through the air in this game, but I doubt he does much with his legs making the 19.65 number a bit high for me.

Next up is the beast himself, a man who has been very successful against the 49ers of late:

Marshawn Lynch

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

58

1

35

0

15.30

Yahoo

76.1

0.5

11.8

0.1

12.07

Average

67.05

0.75

23.4

0.05

13.69

Prediction: Over. Lynch and the running game did not very strong against Carolina, but that is a tougher front seven than people realize and Lynch has had three straight 100 yard games against this 49ers defense. I’m not sure he’ll hit 100 yards on Sunday but I think he’s a good bet for a touchdown and 80+ yards. I don’t like all the receiving yards being projected here but I think the rushing projection is pessimistic so it evens out to a pretty good projection. This was the toughest choice of the week.

Now we move on to the receivers, where Doug Baldwin makes his inaugural appearance in this series:

Sidney Rice

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

62 (+ 9 rushing yards)

1

13.10

Yahoo

47.1

0.4

6.87

Average

54.44

0.7

9.99

Prediction: Under. NFL.com is out to lunch on this one. 13.10 is virtually a best case scenario, not a reasonable expectation. I don’t think the 49ers secondary is special but Rice doesn’t seem 100% yet and wasn’t a favorite of Wilson’s last week.

Golden Tate

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

27

0

2.70

Yahoo

52.4

0.3

7.70

Average

39.5

0.15

5.2

Prediction: Over. If the projection for Tate is low enough that a touchdown puts him over the top I’ll take the over every time. Tate had 7 TD’s last year and he’s always a threat to score one despite uninspiring yardage totals. Even without a TD 52 yards receiving are not remotely out of reach for the 4^th year receiver.

Doug Baldwin

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

72

0

7.20

Yahoo

31.8

0.2

4.44

Average

51.9

0.1

5.82

Prediction: Under. This one is tough because of how great Baldwin looked last week. However, he’s not much of a red zone guy (7 career touchdowns in 31 games) and he only cracked 52 yards twice last year. He’s in for better things this year, but I’m not going to completely buy in after one game.

Now we move to Zach Miller, who’s spot on this list is tenuous as his fantasy value hovers on the brink of nothingness.

Zach Miller

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

23

0

2.30

Yahoo

38.8

0.3

5.48

Average

30.9

0.15

3.89

Prediction: Under. Although 40+ yards or a touchdown is not that ludicrous an expectation for Miller, I suspect he will be needed to block more often than not and will be unable to reach even this modest total. In Miller’s Seahawks career he has played four games against the 49ers in those four games he’s totaled 5 catches for 43 yards and no scores. That would barely clear the bar for this projection, so it’s an under even though it makes me sad given the very low bar to clear.

Now for the embarrassing part where we look at last week’s results to dispel any notion that I know what I’m talking about:

Last Week’s Results

17.08

Over

15.50

Wrong

Marshawn Lynch

17.33

Under

5.20

Right

Sidney Rice

7.24

Over

3.50

Wrong

Golden Tate

8.85

Under

5.10

Right

Zach Miller

4.11

Over

4.20

Right (barely)

Not great, not unbelievably awful, that’s about what I’m shooting for. Success.