Oct 17, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch (24) dives into the end zone for a touchdown in the third quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Week 8: Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under

In the third edition of “Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under” (In Week 8, but I was away for quite some time. I have an excuse, I swear) I look at how the Seahawks can be expected to do against the Rams on Monday night. This week I considered adding Percy Harvin to the list of players analyzed here, but it is looking less and less likely that he plays. I’m thinking about taking Zach Miller off this list but he had a touchdown catch last week so he gets to stick around (But seriously, if Zach Miller is your fantasy TE he better be your cousin or something). I would evaluate my most recent choices but they are from so long ago that they cease to be relevant in the slightest. Anyhow… away we go, beginning at quarterback:

Russell Wilson

Projection Source

Passing Yards

Passing Touchdowns

Interceptions

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

222

3

0

22

0

23.68

Yahoo

186

1.6

0.5

44.9

0.2

18.15

Average

204

2.3

0.25

33.5

0.1

20.92

 

Prediction: Under. I think the Seahawks will be up in this game and leaning on the run so it will be hard for Wilson to make this kind of fantasy impact. The Rams pass defense is fairly inept (8.5 yards/attempt allowed) but considering they are at home and they can bring a fairly potent pass rush against the Seahawks struggling offensive line they won’t be complete pushovers. Wilson should still have a fine day, but not 20+ points fine.

Next up is the Skittle-fueled machine:

Marshawn Lynch

Projection Source

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

107

1

19

0

18.60

Yahoo

105

0.8

17.1

0.1

17.04

Average

106

0.9

18.05

0.05

17.82

 

Prediction: Over. This is a juicy prediction but I’m still going to take the over here. The Seahawks will be looking to keep the heat off Russell Wilson and it’s fairly likely the team will be leading for a large percentage of this game so it should be a good environment for running the ball. The Rams allow a fairly average 4.2 yards a carry, but if Lynch can get 20+ carries and at least one touchdown he could be in for a monster day.

Now we move on to the receivers (for the fantasy optimists out there):

Sidney Rice

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

67

1

12.67

Yahoo

34.3

0.4

5.84

Average

50.7

0.7

9.26

 

Prediction: Under. NFL.com is a bit optimistic here making this an easy call. Of course, Rice could always get a touchdown and top this mark, but he’s no lock to do so and 93 yards is a big ask for a guy with just over 200 yards in his first 7 games of the season. Rice doesn’t look right just yet, but maybe last week was the start of something big. I’d be happy to be proven wrong here.

Golden Tate

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

59

1

11.90

Yahoo

47.2

0.4

8.10

Average

53.1

0.7

10.00

 

Prediction: Over. This is another case where I acknowledge that the projection is high, so I’m taking a risk here. Russell Wilson is a lock to throw at least a touchdown or two in this game and someone has to catch one. Tate got open last week against Patrick Peterson which is a tall task. I suspect he keeps a good thing going.

Doug Baldwin

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

30

0

3.00

Yahoo

34.3

0.3

4.95

Average

32.2

0.15

3.98

 

Prediction: Over. It’s not that Doug Baldwin is an elite fantasy play, but he can reach 3.98 fantasy points fairly easily. He has averaged 51.4 yards per game this year so he only has to reach his average to exceed this projection. Additionally that completely ignores the possibility of a touchdown and he isn’t facing a great pass defense either. I hesitate to call it a slam dunk but I feel pretty good about this pick.

.

Zach Miller

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

22

1

8.20

Yahoo

25.2

0.3

4.55

Average

23.6

0.65

6.38

 

Prediction: Under. Zach Miller is always a possibility for a red zone touchdown, but that isn’t a gimme and I can’t see him hitting this projection on yardage alone. Also he figures to spend most of the day blocking with the dangerous Robert Quinn lining up on the Ram’s defensive line.

Next week we’ll check in on these predictions. I went out on a limb a couple of times here on gut feeling, which generally isn’t my style, so how wise my gut is remains to be seen. Happy fantasy football, folks.

 

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