Week 10 Fantasy Over/Under

Nov 3, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin (89) celebrates his touchdown reception against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Week 10’s “Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under” deals with Seattle’s matchup with the lowly Atlanta Falcons on the road. After the heart stopper against Tampa Bay a comfortable win would be appreciated here. It would also be nice to get revenge against the Falcons for last year’s playoff loss. This Atlanta team is probably better than their record suggests, but that’s not saying much. The Seahawks are clearly the better squad and just need to avoid beating themselves in this one. Let’s get right to business, starting with our fearless leader:

Russell Wilson

Projection Source

Passing Yards

Passing Touchdowns

Interceptions

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

244

3

0

59

0

27.66

Yahoo

190

2.1

0.6

43.6

0.2

20.23

Average

217

2.55

0.3

51.3

0.1

23.95

 

Prediction: Under. NFL.com is out to lunch. The line they project could happen given the sorry state of the Falcons secondary but it’s absurd to project it. Wilson should be in for a big game, but he’s not the top quarterback in fantasy this week. I don’t think 20+ fantasy points is impossible though given that the Falcons don’t really have the pieces on defense to put up much resistance.

Next up is the beast,  Marshawn Lynch:

Marshawn Lynch

Projection Source

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

126

1

6

0

19.20

Yahoo

90.1

0.6

18.6

0.1

14.78

Average

108.1

0.8

12.3

0.05

16.99

 

Prediction: Over. Lynch looked great last week and the offensive line was opening big holes against a defense with a good track record for stopping the run. Atlanta’s defense allows 4.5 yards per carry to opposing runners. I don’t think 100+ yards and a touchdown is too much to ask.

Now we move on to the pass catchers, where Percy Harvin has yet to make an appearance unfortunately:

Golden Tate

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

109

1

16.90

Yahoo

55.6

0.6

9.89

Average

82.3

0.8

13.40

 

Prediction: Under. This is a great matchup for Tate and his value is at an all-time high without Harvin or Rice around, but 13.40 points is just too many. I wouldn’t be surprised if he reached that total but the odds have to be against it.

Doug Baldwin

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

15

0

1.50

Yahoo

44.8

0.4

7.11

Average

29.9

0.2

4.31

 

Prediction: Over.

NFL.com lowballs Baldwin again. I think even Yahoo’s projection looks conservative given the quality of Atlanta’s defense and what he did last week. I’m a really big fan of those sideline grabs that Baldwin is showing off lately.

Zach Miller

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

31

1

9.10

Yahoo

33.6

0.5

6.42

Average

32.3

0.75

7.76

 

Prediction: Over.

Miller is my kryptonite. I keep expecting more than he can deliver. I’m going with the over here because of how thoroughly Miller crushed the Falcons last time these teams met. I was also encouraged by his 49 yards receiving last week. In reality this is probably a foolish pick.

Last Week’s Results

Player Aggregated Projection Nick’s prediction Actual Week 9 Fantasy Points Nick was….

Russell Wilson

16.64

Over

24.28

Right

Marshawn Lynch

15.60

Under

14.10

Barely Right

Doug Baldwin

3.25

Over

13.50

Right

Golden Tate

7.18

Over

2.90

Wrong

Zach Miller

4.32

Over

4.90

Barely Right

 

4-1 is not bad. Barely got by on a couple picks there but in fantasy you need luck to be on your side anyway.

 

 

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