Week 11 Fantasy Over/Under

Nov 10, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) stiff arms Atlanta Falcons safety Thomas DeCoud (28) on a run in the first half at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11’s “Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under” looks at the Seahawks matchup with the Minnesota Vikings within the friendly confines of the Clink. Last week the Seahawks finally put together a complete and impressive win that allowed their fans to exhale for the first time since their win against Arizona. The Vikings are a team that Seattle is expected to beat and if the game is particularly compelling then the Seahawks have done something wrong. This edition of “Fantasy Over/Under” will include the debut of Percy Harvin which I, for one, am excited about. I thought about including Jermaine Kearse but I don’t think this team can support four receivers who are relevant in fantasy.  We begin at quarterback:

Russell Wilson

Passing Yards

Passing Touchdowns

Interceptions

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

291

2

1

44

1

28.04

Yahoo

224

2.1

0.4

39.8

0.2

20.86

Average

257.5

4.1

0.7

41.9

0.6

24.45

Prediction: Under. Russell Wilson has the potential to put up a huge game here, but not this huge. I think the Seahawks get ahead in this one for long enough that the running game is the focus. It’s unfair to project a rushing touchdown for a guy who gets them so rarely.

Next a man who was on a mission last week, Marshawn Lynch:

Marshawn Lynch

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

75

1

9

0

14.40

Yahoo

78.5

0.8

20.3

0.1

14.73

Average

76.8

0.9

14.7

0.05

14.57

Prediction: Over. It’s interesting how close the two predictions are. Now that the “Williams Wall” is long gone there is no reason to be scared of running the ball at the Vikings. The Seahawks are at home and should be ahead and Marshawn Lynch has looked great the last couple of weeks behind an improving offensive line. Huge day for Lynch.

Now we move on to the pass catchers, where Percy Harvin makes an appearance for the first time:

Golden Tate

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

102

1

16.20

Yahoo

54.7

0.5

8.63

Average

78.4

0.75

12.42

Prediction: Under. I got burned last week by taking the Under for Golden Tate, but this week I will stay the course again. 12.42 points is a lot of points. He has a decent chance to make that total while Harvin is still limited and there is no one in the Vikings secondary, but still.

Percy Harvin (!)

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

54

1

12.30

Yahoo

40.3

0.4

7.13

Average

47.2

0.7

9.72

Prediction: Under. I think that Percy Harvin can reach double digit fantasy points in this offense consistently but that would be tough to do with limited snaps. I can see Pete Carroll scheming in something for him in the red zone to get him going, but that’s a hunch I wouldn’t bet much of anything on.

Doug Baldwin

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

95

1

15.90

Yahoo

49.9

0.4

6.41

Average

72.5

0.7

11.16

Prediction: Under.

NFL.com suddenly has realized that Baldwin exists but the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Baldwin isn’t a huge red zone guy so he remains a better receiver in real life than fantasy.

Zach Miller

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

36

0

3.60

Yahoo

27.7

0.4

4.88

Average

31.9

0.2

4.24

Prediction: Under.

Not falling for Zach Miller’s bit again. I refuse. Having said that he will definitely score a touchdown now. I hope he does, I do quite like the fellow.

Last Week’s Results

23.95

Under

21.48

Right

Marshawn Lynch

16.99

Over

22.10

Right

Doug Baldwin

4.31

Over

7.60

Right

Golden Tate

13.40

Under

16.60

Wrong

Zach Miller

7.76

Over

0.00

Wrong (WOW)

3-2 isn’t pretty but it will work. That Miller pick was gruesome. His production is so touchdown based that it’s almost impossible to guess. But that’s no excuse. Tune in next week to see what kind of excuses I’ll be making up for these picks.