Week 13: Fantasy Over/Under

Nov 17, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Percy Harvin (11) catches a pass during pre game warm ups prior to the game against the Minnesota Vikings at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

On Monday the Seahawks will play what is undoubtedly the most important game of their season. However, just because the number one seed in the NFC is on the line in this game, it doesn’t mean that there aren’t some fantasy matchups of grave importance going on out there as well. For that reason I bring you Week 13’s edition of the definitely not critically acclaimed series “Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under.” In a game that has a chance to be fairly high scoring by Seahawks standards there could be quite a few standout fantasy performances from the good guys. As ever we begin at quarterback:

Russell Wilson

Projection Source

Passing Yards

Passing Touchdowns

Interceptions

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

215

2

0

16

0

18.20

Yahoo

184

1.4

0.3

37.4

0.1

16.33

Average

199.5

1.7

0.15

26.7

0.05

17.27

 

Prediction: Over

I know the Saints have a vastly improved defense but this looks very conservative. Wilson had exceeded 17 fantasy points in his last three games and has always performed better at home. Although Marshawn Lynch figures to be the engine that drives the Seahawks offense on Monday, Wilson should still be able to exceed this projection, especially if he can do anything with his legs.

Speaking of Marshawn Lynch:

Marshawn Lynch

Projection Source

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

135

0

0

0

13.50

Yahoo

78.2

0.7

16.8

0.1

13.82

Average

106.6

0.35

8.4

0.05

13.66

 

Prediction: Over

106.6 yards looks like a reasonable projection for Lynch’s rushing yards, but everything else here looks low. The Saints really struggle defending the run and the Seahawks offensive line is getting healthier by the day. Lynch is almost a mortal lock for a touchdown here which should help him cruise about this projection.

Now we move on to the receivers, where Percy Harvin tries to make a big impact coming off the bye:

Golden Tate

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

45

0

4.50

Yahoo

38.9

0.3

5.89

Average

42

0.15

5.20

 

Prediction: Over

I actually don’t think Golden Tate is in for a huge game on Sunday. I’m curious to see how many of his targets Harvin can steal and the Saints defend the pass well. However, when the projection is this low, you have to take the over. Tate is always a threat for a touchdown and one here would guarantee he beats projection.

Percy Harvin

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

60

1

12.00

Yahoo

50.1

0.4

7.85

Average

55

0.7

9.93

 

Prediction: Under.

Harvin had Week 11 to get in the swing of things and then the bye week to deal with any soreness. He looked explosive on his big kick return against the Vikings. Things are looking up. I just can’t bring myself to endorse such a robust prediction until he goes out and has a huge game to prove he’s back.

 

Doug Baldwin

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

57

0

5.70

Yahoo

25.9

0.2

3.69

Average

36.2

0.1

4.70

 

Prediction: Over

Yahoo seems to see Baldwin falling off the side of the earth with the return of Percy Harvin. That could happen to an extent, but I think you have to give Baldwin the benefit of the doubt here given how good he’s been this season. He’s still not much of a fantasy option and that projection isn’t way off the mark.

Zach Miller

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

35

1

9.50

Yahoo

23.3

0.2

3.69

Average

31.9

0.2

6.60

 

Prediction: Under

Miller could always score a touchdown, but the Saints bring a lot of pressure I think he’ll have a lot on his plate in terms of blocking in this game.

Week 11 Results

Player Aggregated Projection Nick’s prediction Actual Week 9 Fantasy Points Nick was….

Russell Wilson

24.45

Under

18.60

Right

Marshawn Lynch

14.57

Over

24.30

Right

Doug Baldwin

11.16

Under

12.30

Wrong

Golden Tate

12.42

Under

2.60

Right

Percy Harvin

9.72

Under

1.70

Right

Zach Miller

4.24

Under

6.90

Wrong

 

I’ll take 4-2 anytime but it infuriates me that I can never get Zach Miller right. Oh well, such is life. Tune in next week for more quasi-educated guessing!

 

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