Week 14: Fantasy Over/Under

Dec 2, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin (89) catches a pass for a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints during the second quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Today the Seahawks take on the 49ers looking to clinch the NFC West title. The 49ers are a tough team with a defense that could really stifle Seattle’s playmakers and make it a hard day for fantasy owners. Let’s take a look at what we are dealing with, beginning at quarterback:

Russell Wilson

Projection Source

Passing Yards

Passing Touchdowns

Interceptions

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

206

1

1

33

0

13.54

Yahoo

202

1.5

0.6

37.6

0.1

17.17

Average

204

1.25

0.8

35.3

0.05

15.36

 

Prediction: Over

Russell Wilson didn’t have much of a game last time the Seahawks played the 49ers but this projection feels conservative. Wilson has been rolling lately and the strength of the 49ers defense is the front seven not the secondary. Wilson is unlikely to put up monster numbers but 15+ points shouldn’t be too difficult.

Next up is Marshawn Lynch:

Marshawn Lynch

Projection Source

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

101

2

8

0

22.90

Yahoo

83.5

0.7

18.6

0.1

14.23

Average

92.1

1.35

12.3

0.05

18.57

 

Prediction: Under

Lynch has owned the 49ers of late including a 31.5 point performance against them in Week 2. Unfortunately, it’s unfair to expect him to repeat that kind of dominance. Lynch hasn’t cracked 55 yards in two straight games and the 49ers have a stout defense. The NFL,com projection is also way too optimistic. Not that I wouldn’t like to see Lynch put up a couple of touchdowns…

Now we move on to the receivers, where Percy Harvin’s brief tenure on the list is over for now:

Golden Tate

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

41

0

4.10

Yahoo

49.5

0.3

7.14

Average

45.25

0.15

5.63

 

Prediction: Over

Golden Tate has been very inconsistent in terms of fantasy production but I will stubbornly continue to bet on him if the projection is this low. Tate is still a really dangerous player and he’s due for a big game. The 49ers will make it hard for him to accumulate YAC yards but 57 yards wouldn’t be that hard to come by and any touchdown would seal the deal.

 

Doug Baldwin

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

55

1

11.50

Yahoo

47

0.3

6.58

Average

51

0.65

8.54

 

Prediction: Under

Doug Baldwin is on a tear lately, making this is a really tough call. However, 8.54 is a pretty meaty projection for a guy who is a WR3 in the fantasy world. With the impact he’s made in recent weeks you have to think the 49ers will be keying on Baldwin to some degree and I don’t see him scoring a touchdown in this game even though he has 3 in his last 4.

Zach Miller

Projection Source

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

30

0

3.00

Yahoo

35.2

0.3

5.53

Average

32.6

0.15

4.27

 

Prediction: Over

Zach Miller is incredibly boom or bust but he has 21.5 fantasy points in his last two games. Perhaps things are looking up for his role in the offense. I’m not sure I buy that but I’m willing to try to believe.

Week 11 Results

Player Aggregated Projection Nick’s prediction Actual Week 9 Fantasy Points Nick was….

Russell Wilson

17.27

Over

29.10

Right

Marshawn Lynch

13.66

Over

5.70

Wrong

Doug Baldwin

4.70

Over

13.70

Right

Golden Tate

5.20

Over

4.50

Wrong

Percy Harvin

9.93

Under

0.00

Right (by default)

Zach Miller

6.60

Under

14.60

Wrong

 

3-3 and I needed Harvin’s injury to even get that. Very disappointing stuff. Tune in next week to see if these estimations get more credible. Spoiler Alert: They won’t.

 

 

Want more from 12th Man Rising?  
Subscribe to FanSided Daily for your morning fix. Enter your email and stay in the know.

5 hours ago

Looking ahead to the Seahawks 2014 preseason schedule

1 day ago

2014 NFL Draft: Adding Sidney Rice means Seahawks can shift focus in draft

2 days ago

Report: Sidney Rice, Seahawks agree to one-year deal