Doug Baldwin’s value is difficult to determine

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin is due for a contract extension in the coming weeks, but it remains difficult to assess his overall value.

The second half of the 2016 season for Doug Baldwin was incredible, but should the Seattle Seahawks pay him as if they expect him to replicate that stretch? That is one of the many questions that the team is grappling with now that the draft is complete.

Statistically, Baldwin’s value to the Seahawks is enormous. While he doesn’t have some of the gaudy yardage totals of other players, most of that is because be plays in a low-volume offense. Look beyond that, and you’ll see that Baldwin’s stats are crazy-good.

Baldwin led the entire NFL in touchdowns and touchdown percentage. He set the franchise record for touchdowns, and was the first Seahawk to eclipse 1000 yard receiving since Bobby Engram.

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Over the final eight games of the season, Baldwin was 6th in in the NFL in receiving yards, 2nd in yards per target, and 4th in catch rate. Over that span he had 3 more TDs than anyone else in the league. Those are elite numbers, and put him in the same company as guys like Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.

Looking at the game tape, two conflicting things pop out. First, there are time when Baldwin is practically uncoverable. He sets up his routes so well; cornerbacks just don’t have any hope of staying with him.

Oddly though, despite the success that is obvious to see both on the film and in the boxscores, defenses aren’t game-planning to stop Baldwin. In fact, quite the opposite has been true.

Early in the season, Jimmy Graham was obviously the focus of opposing defenses. The safeties were focussed on the big TE, and it wasn’t uncommon for him to occupy three defenders.

After Graham went onto IR with his knee injury, Tyler Lockett became the focus. Defenses regularly shift their zones in Lockett’s direction, or rolled their free safety over the top of Lockett’s route. Baldwin almost never was given such attention.

Not that I (or the Seahawks) am complaining. By not focussing on Baldwin, defenses left him open to dominate games. It is just odd that, even in the middle of his great run, teams were more afraid of Lockett than they were Baldwin.

It also creates a difficult context for Baldwin’s numbers. While his stats were every bit as good as Julio’s and Antonio Brown’s, they weren’t as difficult to compile. Julio and Brown are absolutely the focus of opposing defenses. Baldwin was never given that same level of attention.

This isn’t meant to take anything away form Baldwin. He’s a damn good player and has been a huge part of the Seahawks’ success the last few seasons. But with a contract extension looming, it is important to note that stats don’t always tell the entire story.

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Doug Baldwin deserves to get paid. I sincerely hope that the Seahawks are the ones that give him the big payday. I just question if he is truly worth paying what the league’s elite receivers are making right now.