Seahawks: Does Jeff Fisher own Pete Carroll?

The narrative currently being pushed is that Pete Carroll cannot beat Jeff Fisher. After looking at the history of the Seahawks, it turns out that the narrative is incorrect.

The Seahawks are a Super Bowl contender. The Rams are mediocre. Why is it that so many fans are going into Sunday’s game with the assumption that the Seahawks will probably lose?

The answer to that question appears to be “History; Jeff Fisher owns Pete Carroll.” There is this belief that the Rams always seem to beat the Seahawks, no matter how good the teams are.

As easy as it is to accept that, it turns out that it might not be as true as many people thinks it is.  In this case, it seems that recency bias has gotten the better of us.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Rams have beaten Seattle in three of their last four games. That is true, but it isn’t the entire story. It turns out that the old morning-game issue is mostly at play here.

Since Jeff Fisher took over the Rams in 2012, Seahawks are 8-8 in morning games. They are 0-3 against the Rams in that period. In afternoon and night games the Seahawks are 39-10, including 4-1 against the Rams.

In games that aren’t morning games, Seattle’s winning percentage against the Rams is slightly better than against the rest of the league. That includes a win on the road in a game played in prime time.

Over those four seasons, the Seahawks are barely a .500 team in morning games. That’s just in the regular season, and doesn’t include two embarrassing first-halves in the playoffs in 2012 and last year. That they struggle again the Rams in those game shouldn’t be a surprise, since they struggle against everyone in that time slot.

Next: Seattle's path to another title, as predicted by DVOA

With the Rams now in LA, the Seahawks will never again have to play them in that morning time slot. Their problem with beating Jeff Fisher should take care of itself.