None of these players are Benson Mayowa but there is shockingly little in the way of Idaho Vandals Football pictures on the internet.

The sixth installment of “Obscure Seahawks Bi-Weekly” looks at LEO prospect Benson Mayowa out of Idaho. Mayowa has only been a Seahawk since Monday but might just have a chance to stay awhile.

The Basics

Age: 21

Height: 6’ 3”

Weight: 236

Position: LEO

College: Idaho

Number: #47

Method of Acquisition: Signed as an undrafted free agent 5/13/13

Years Pro: R

40 yard dash time: 4.73 seconds

Vertical: 37 ½

NCAA career stats:  45 GP, 67 Tackles, 19 TFL, 11 Sacks, 11 FF, 7 PD

Fun Fact: Mayowa’s 20 yard shuffle time of 4.26 would have been tied for first at the Combine among defensive ends with Ziggy Ansah.

Scouting Report

The term that keeps coming up in scouting reports of Mayowa is ‘short-area quickness’. Whenever I investigate these fringe roster players I look for the unique talent that made them appeal to the Seahawks and for Mayowa it has to be his quickness. As shown above he had an elite 20 yard shuffle time and the buzz from his tryout was that he was very quick off the ball. That first step is essential for pass rushers and it’s a good thing that Mayowa has it because there isn’t a ton else exciting about him. His NCAA career was fine, but far from distinguished, his long speed is pedestrian and he’s on the small side, even for a LEO. Mayowa may be a one-trick pony but LEO is a one-trick position and if he can use his quickness to be disruptive in the passing game then no one will complain.

Chances of Making the Team

Not bad, at least for now. With Bruce Irvin’s suspension and the injury to Chris Clemons, Clint Avril is the last pure LEO left on the roster. Michael Bennett can play the role but he is more of a hybrid player. On 3^rd downs Bennett will probably see time at DT so the Seahawks will need someone to rush across from Avril. Even if they have Bennett line up on the other end there will need to be at least one LEO backup. Although someone else could be brought in, the only three real candidates for the role are Mayowa, fellow undrafted free agent Kenneth Boatright and 2013 draft pick Ty Powell. Boatright is the least athletic of the trio and looks unlikely to figure in Seattle’s plans. Powell has better long speed and a little more size than Mayowa but as a 7^th round pick it’s not as if he will be guaranteed a spot on the roster. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Seahawks bring in John Abraham to help them get through this pass rushing crisis, but he may not be inclined to sign what would amount to a 4 game contract.  The door seems to be wide open for Mayowa while Irvin is out but I think there will probably be another move because I doubt a serious contender like the Seahawks would leave such an important role to such unproven players. Arbitrary Estimates: 25% chance of making the team, 35% of making the practice squad.

Aug 17, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Derrick Coleman (49) against the Buffalo Bills at the Metrodome. The Vikings defeated the Bills 36-14. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

The fifth installment of ‘Obscure Seahawks Weekly” looks at athletic fullback/special teams ace Derrick Coleman. Coleman is an interesting guy (http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/columns/ncf/story/_/id/7273486/derrick-coleman-ucla-bruins-story-worth-hearing) who might just have the versatility and athleticism to stick around.

The Basics

Age: 22

Height: 5′ 11″

Weight: 233

Position: Fullback

College:UCLA

Number: #40

Method of Acquisition: Signed to futures contract 01/16/13

Years Pro: 2

40 yard dash time: 4.50

Vertical: 36 1/2

NCAA career stats: 49 GP, 341 carries, 1780 yards, 5.2 YPC, 19 TD

Fun Fact: Derrick Coleman is hard of hearing and reads lips in order to get audibles from his quarterback.

Scouting Report

Coleman has great speed for his size and has shown the ability to carry the ball effectively. He has the potential to be an excellent short-yardage back, not that Seattle has a particular need in that area. He has been an excellent special teams player at the college level and has the experience and physical ability to excel in a similar role in the NFL. Coleman wasn’t asked to catch many balls at UCLA so there is some uncertainty regarding that aspect of his game. Has to improve his blocking to be a successful fullback but has youth and physical tools on his side. Could find a niche as a Leonard Weaver-esque hybrid FB/RB.

Chances of Making the Team

Not impossible. Coleman’s chances are very dependent on how many fullbacks the Seahawks want to keep. If Seattle only keeps one fullback then Coleman has no opportunity to make this squad unless Michael Robinson becomes a salary cap casualty. If Pete Carroll feels like he can afford to keep two fullbacks Coleman will be in a duel with Spencer Ware for the backup fullback job. Although Ware was drafted by this regime, Coleman is a more accomplished special teamer and is significantly faster at the same size. Seattle hasn’t committed very much to Ware considering he was a sixth round pick, so Ware and Coleman would be in for a really interesting roster battle if the Seahawks are willing to carry two fullbacks on the roster. Coleman could also make this team if Carroll figured he was indispensable as a pure special teams player like Alex Bannister was a while back. However, that’s a fairly unlikely scenario. Coleman has quite a bit to offer but he needs a few things to break his way to make the 2013 Seahawks. Arbitrary Estimates: 16% chance of making the team, 34% chance of making the practice squad.

October 27, 2012; Eugene, OR, USA; Colorado Buffaloes defensive back Ray Polk (7) in the first quarter against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

The fourth installment of “Obscure Seahawks Bi-Weekly” looks at undrafted free agent Ray Polk. Polk is a hard hitting safety with the kind of eye-popping athleticism that is likely to make Pete Carroll take notice.

The Basics

Age: 23

Height: 6’ 1”

Weight: 219

College: Colorado

Number: #7

Method of Acquisition: Signed as an undrafted free agent 4/27/13

Years Pro:R

40 yard dash: 4.40 seconds

Vertical: 39 inches

NCAA career stats:  41GP, 33GS, 237 tackles, 1 INT, 4 PD

Fun Fact: Polk was a very high rated running back recruit coming out of high school with Rivals.com ranking him as the No. 3 prospect out of Arizona and the No. 11 running back in the nation.

Scouting Report

Polk has great speed and range but uses that to make big hits as opposed to plays in coverage. He played as a free safety throughout his college career but his game seems better suited to the strong safety position where the Seahawks have him listed. Polk’s great speed and vertical leap should lend itself to making plays on the ball but he has only one interception in his entire college career which leads to some concerns about his instincts. Apparently Colorado deployed him very deep due to their questionable corners so this may have depressed his pass coverage statistics slightly. He also has some durability concerns and only played in seven games in his senior season last year.

Chances of Making the Team

Not awful. Polk has quite a bit of potential and Pete Carroll has a way with defensive backs so Polk may have landed on the right team. He has the speed and range to play free safety where the Seahawks badly need a reliable backup for Earl Thomas. However, Polk’s game is more Chancellor-esque and the Seahawks are more likely to see him as a strong safety long term. Seattle needs to keep Chris Maragos (or someone else off waivers) to back up Thomas and Jeron Johnson has shown himself to be useful in sub packages, and remains very cheap, so there is no real reason to jettison him as the primary backup at strong safety. Last year the Seahawks kept five safeties though. The fifth safety was Winston Guy who showed little on the field and was suspended for using performance enhancing substances. Should Seattle choose to keep five safeties again I think Polk has a really good chance of making this squad. As the fifth safety very little would be asked of him so he could develop his coverage skills in practice and put his elite athleticism to work as a special teams star. That seems like the perfect role for Polk, long term project and short term special teams contributor. There is no guarantee the Seahawks keep more than four safeties, and if they don’t I would be surprised if Polk didn’t find himself on the practice squad. For the highest arbitrary estimates yet I will say Polk has a 23% chance of making the team and a 60% chance of making the practice squad.

Aug 30, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jarrett Boykin (11) catches a touchdown pass against Kansas City Chiefs defensive back Chandler Fenner (48) at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The third installment of Obscure Seahawks Bi-Weekly takes a look at cornerback Chandler Fenner. Fenner fits the Seahawks mold of cornerbacks with more length but possibly suspect quickness. Let’s take a look at this second year man out of Holy Cross.

The Basics

Age: 22 (turning 23 in July)

Height: 6’1’’

Weight: 189 lbs

College: Holy Cross

Number: #30

Method of Acquisition: Signed to practice squad 12/06/12, then signed to a futures contract 1/16/13.

Years Pro: 2

40 yard dash time: 4.53 seconds

Vertical: 33 inches

NCAA career stats: 44 GP, 158 tackles, 2 INT, 18 PD, 2 FF

Fun Fact: Chandler Fenner was also a track star in college and ran the 60 meter dash in 7 seconds.

Scouting Report

Fenner is a big physical corner who some had pegged as a free safety coming into the 2012 draft. He lacks elite speed, quickness or athletic explosiveness but is strong and an excellent run defender at the corner position. Fenner shows some ability to blitz as well, indicating that he might have a future as a slot corner. Most reports say that Fenner’s weakness in flipping his hips and changing directions indicate that he is best suited to a zone heavy scheme.

Chances of Making the Team

Virtually non-existent. Browner, Sherman and Winfield are absolute locks to make this team. Given his play last year, I think Jeremy Lane is also unlikely to be shown the door. That’s four out of a maximum of six.  Adding in newly drafted Tharold Simon makes five and one would have to think that one of Walter Thurmond or Byron Maxwell could also make this roster. I’m not sure Fenner has the ability to beat out any of those guys. Pete Carroll likes guys with unique skillsets and there isn’t really anything about Fenner that totally jumps off the page at you. His measurables are respectable without being amazing so he’ll have to show great technique if he wants to stand out. It’s possible the Seahawks could keep him around on the practice squad if they felt that he has a chance to compete for the job as Winfield’s successor at slot corner. Arbitrary Estimates: 0.7% chance of making the team, 13% chance of making the practice squad.

This is a picture of Portland State playing football. Myles Wade played for Portland State, that’s about the best I can do.

For the second edition of the controversially named “Obscure Seahawks Bi-Weekly” series (I understand the complaints but I’m sticking with it because the dictionary is on my side and it sounds like the name of an excellent bird watching periodical to me) the player featured is DT Myles Wade. Wade is an intriguing player who is something of a physical specimen with a bit of an odd path to the NFL (JUCO transfer followed by two years at Texas Tech and one at Portland State where he went into graduate studies to maintain his eligibility). Sounds like a Seahawk to me, here’s a closer look.

The Basics

Age 23 (24 in August)

Height: 6’1”

Weight: 310

Number: #95

Method of Acquisition: Free Agent 1/16/13, Wade had made his way to the Seahawks practice squad from the Buccaneers by the end of the 2012 season.

Years Pro: 2

40 yard dash time: 5.10 seconds

Vertical: 35 ½ inches

Benchpress: 42 reps

NCAA career stats: 27GP 15 GS 38 Tackles, 3 Sacks, 4 TFL

Fun Fact: Wade blocked two kicks in his 2011 year at Portland State, one of them to win the game against Northern Arizona.

Scouting Report

Myles Wade has very impressive physical tools but his fairly unproductive NCAA career demonstrates that those skills don’t always manifest themselves on the field. He is stout and strong and as such could have a future as a rotational run stopper, but reports indicate that Wade is stiff and does not move especially well, suggesting a virtually non-existent pass rushing ceiling. His strength does lend itself to the bull rush which explains the blocked kicks and the sacks he recorded. Wade was thought to be a sleeper approaching the 2012 draft and it was something of surprise he went undrafted. When it comes to “unique characteristics” Pete Carroll is likely enamored with Wade’s measurables in general, and his raw strength in particular.

Chances of Making the Team

Slim to none. Although defensive tackle was a well-documented need for the Seahawks this off-season they have so many bodies at the position now that it’s hard to imagine Wade having a chance. Mebane is a lock to make the roster, and the two new draftees Jordan Hill and Jesse Williams looks like pretty safe bets as well. The Seahawks will keep four or five defensive tackles so that leaves 2012 4^th round pick Jaye Howard, free agent signing Tony McDaniel, and 5^th year pro Clinton McDonald fighting for one, or at most two, spots on the roster. I don’t see Wade beating out all three of those guys or even two of them. That being said, it is always good to have depth on the defensive line and they’ve had Wade on the practice squad before so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him there again. Arbitrary Estimates: 1% chance of making the team, 22% chance of making the practice squad.

Warning: For the duration of this series I may be unable to find pictures of these players. I’m sure Matt Austin was somewhere in the area when this picture of the Utah State Stadium was taken, that will have to do for now.

Today begins a potentially lengthy series in which I plan to introduce you, the Seahawks fan, to the players that you know the least about. Join me on this fun and educational journey over the next few weeks. If looking into fringe roster players in depth just isn’t your thing, I understand, but you are missing out. I can almost guarantee one of the guys I highlight in this series will make the team and you will feel foolish for not being ahead of the curve. Today the spotlight shines on wide receiver Matt Austin.

The Basics

Age: 24 (25 in July)

Height: 6’2”

Weight: 202 lbs.

Number: #2

Method of Acquisition: Undrafted Free Agent 2013

Years Pro: R

40 yard dash time: 4.50 seconds

Vertical: 33 ½ inches

NCAA career stats: 26 games played, 83 receptions, 1253 yards, 15.1 yds/rec, 11 touchdowns

Fun Fact: Not only was Austin teammates with Robert Turbin and Bobby Wagner at Utah State, he was also teammates with Bruce Irvin in junior college.

Scouting Report

Austin is a big, strong receiver with respectable athleticism. His 40 time was a surprise to many and helped assuage fears that he doesn’t have the speed to be a receiver in the NFL. His vertical leap is rather unimpressive and his extensive injury history (he was granted a 6^th year of eligibility by the NCAA due to two season ending injuries) is concerning. That said, Austin supposedly has great hands and can be a reliable target.

Chances of Making the Team

Very slim, but not impossible. The Seahawks are likely to carry five or six wide receivers this year and you can bank on Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin making the squad so that leaves one or two spots to be won. However, 4^th round draft pick Chris Harper is a near lock for one of those spots. If the Seahawks keep only five receivers then Austin is toast. If the team keeps six, though, he will have a chance to battle for the last spot with Charly Martin, Phil Bates, Jermaine Kearse and whoever else the Seahawks might pick up on waivers. Also, Austin figures to be a candidate for the practice squad if he impresses. Arbitrarily, I’ll give Austin a 4% chance of making the team and 29% chance to make the practice squad.

NOTE: When I say Bi-weekly I mean the second definition here, as in twice a week (maybe more if you’re lucky). I know everyone was panicking at the prospect of not being able to read up on an obscure Seahawk for another two weeks.

Nov.11, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (8) warms up before a game against the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The 2013 edition of the Seattle Seahawks, barring horrific injury or unexpected regression, has a chance to be the best team Seattle has ever fielded. That’s no guarantee of a Super Bowl. That’s no guarantee of a division title. It’s no guarantee that they don’t go 0-16. However, if someone offers you an over/under of 0.5 wins for the season bet your life savings on the over. Times are good and Seahawks fans should, and I think largely do, appreciate what they have at this moment.

For this reason it is odd that I have been overcome with nostalgia for some vastly inferior Seahawks teams from the not too distant past. Specifically, I’ve caught a bad case of Matt Hasselbeck-related melancholy  Given the dearth of quarterback depth right now, Hasselbeck would have been a great addition this off-season, from a football standpoint. The kind of nostalgia I’m talking about though, is too strong to be based on the desire for a second string quarterback upgrade.

Before we go deeper down the rabbit hole, this is the video that got me thinking about Mr. Hasselbeck in the first place.

The thing that stood out to me that in this video is that Hasselbeck just seems to be a really fun enjoyable person to be around. I realized that I don’t miss Matt Hasselbeck as our quarterback. Russell Wilson is more exciting and arguably had a better rookie year than any season Hasselbeck had. I miss Hasselbeck as a guy.

This is an unusual thought for me to have. Firstly, I’m largely drawn to football based on my own experiences playing and a very strong interest in the strategy of the game. I’m much more interested in statistics than narratives; personalities have never been a big part of my fan experience. Of course, I have my favorites like anyone else. My current favorite player is Kam Chancellor but I couldn’t tell you anything about the man except that I love his unorthodox size for a safety and the way he hits.

Matt Hasselbeck is a big exception to the way I think about football players. Most players seem to be either in the camp of cliché artist or smack talker. I often find myself bored with the predictable nature of their interviews. Hasselbeck is different. He strikes me as a guy with a sense of humor who is very genuine and transparent. I find both traits refreshing and entertaining. My usual assumption with players is that I don’t know much about them as people because I am exposed to such a small sample of their personalities. For some reason I always felt like Matt Hasselbeck was someone I sort of knew.  For example, this video from a couple of years ago depicts a guy who is a multi-millionaire star athlete who acts like he’s just a guy. That is a pretty rare find.

Here’s another brief example.

I promise this post won’t devolve into me just sharing examples of Matt Hasselbeck being cool because I think you get it at this point. Or not. Either way I’m not really in the business of just posting a bunch of links.

Ultimately, I miss having Matt Hasselbeck on the Seahawks because of the person he is, and that’s probably a first for me. I’m not trying to deify the man, he just seemed like a really decent human being to me and I always liked having him on the team. I also don’t mean to criticize Russell Wilson. Wilson seems like an intelligent, hardworking and well-spoken man and I have nothing against him. I just don’t yet feel like I know much about him as a person, and, based on the way he carries himself, I’m not sure I ever will. It is Wilson’s prerogative to present himself any way he likes and I don’t begrudge him that. Maybe I’m just not a great interpreter of him and other fans feel like they know him inside and out. It’s hard for me to say.

The point is, even though I would take Russell Wilson over Matt Hasselbeck as starting quarterback every time, it doesn’t mean I don’t miss Matt. There is a lot more to sports fandom than X’s and O’s, wins and losses, or numbers on a page. I suppose it took a video of a third string quarterback I’ve never heard of hitting a half court shot to remind me of that today.

December 30, 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brady Quinn (9) leaves the field after the game against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos won 38-3. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

This season, and in reality over the last few years, the Seattle front office has been making so many prudent transactions that it’s beginning to approach infallibility in the eyes of many fans. With the recent signing of Antoine Winfield, on a very reasonable contract, the legend of John Schneider grows further. It is not my goal to discredit the Seahawks GM because I agree with most of the praise he has been getting wholeheartedly. Perhaps for that very reason my standards for this front office have reached unreasonable levels, but alternatively I think that each transaction can be evaluated for its merits in isolation.

With this in mind I find the Seahawks signing of Brady Quinn both puzzling and problematic. In a perfect world Brady Quinn will never take a snap for the Seattle because Russell Wilson will be durable or, preferably, invincible. However, football is a violent game where injuries are common and as a result it is important to have quality depth, especially at the game’s most important position. Brady Quinn is not quality depth. I’d go so far as to say that Brady Quinn isn’t an NFL caliber quarterback. I don’t know if the Seahawks believe that they can unlock some hidden potential in Quinn but he turns 29 this year so you can color me skeptical.

Here is a look at Brady Quinn’s careers stats:

I know that the win-loss record is a bit of an unfair way to evaluate quarterbacks but it helps paint a picture of Quinn’s relatively legendary ineptitude. Things do not look rosier when we delve into some of the more advanced statistics. Keep in mind that for every statistic in the table below, 100 is the league average.

Quinn approaches adequacy when it comes to avoiding sacks and interceptions but proves woeful in all other facets of quarterbacking. Quinn is mildly athletic, having rushed for 4.2 yards per carry and 7.7 yards per game in his career but he can’t run the read-option. It’s not as if he’s a grizzled veteran that has some kind of unique perspective to offer in the locker room (if you are the type who thinks that sort of thing matters).  Quinn also did not make great strides last year which might have suggested he would improve on his career numbers in the future. His QBR in 2012 was 27.4 (average is 50), a career low and good for 35^th in the NFL. (Only 39 quarterbacks threw enough passes to qualify.)

I wish I had some profound insight to add here. All I have to say is that Brady Quinn is an abysmal NFL quarterback and I can only hope that John Schneider finds someone better in the draft or that Josh Portis can step into the backup role. Usually, whether I agree or not, I can find the logic in the transactions made by the Seahawks’ front office, but this time I’m dumbfounded.

Oct 21, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings defensive back Antoine Winfield (26) against the Arizona Cardinals at the Metrodome. The Vikings defeated the Cardinals 21-14. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Rarely when your team schedules a visit with a soon to be 36 year old cornerback should you be excited, but today might be the exception to that rule. Antoine Winfield is scheduled to visit Seattle this week as the Seahawks try to address something of a question mark at the nickel corner position. Although Walter Thurmond and Jeremy Lane are candidates for this spot Winfield is a definite upgrade.

The first concern with Winfield is his age given that he is 35, turning 36 in June. To be wary of an old player at such a physically demanding position is natural but Winfield does not seem to be slowing down. The 5-9 190 lb corner started 15 games last year and played in all 16, and while he has missed 17 games in the last four years, he comes in without any current injury concerns. After injury the second most important concern about aging players is declining performance. Winfield puts this concern to rest given that his 2012 season was one of the best in his 14 year career. He had three interceptions, tied for his 3^rd best career total, and 12 passes defended which was tied for 2^nd best in his career. These numbers suggest that Winfield hasn’t lost enough to be a liability in coverage, even if the reality is that pure coverage has never been his specialty.

The real reason why this potential signing is so brilliant is because Antoine Winfield fits perfectly with what Pete Carroll likes to do on defense. Arguably his greatest talent is in run support, which is a point of emphasis for this defense since Carroll has been in Seattle. Defending the run was also a greater weakness than many realized in 2012 as the Seahawks conceded a problematic 4.5 yards per carry. Additionally, Winfield has shown the ability to get to the quarterback on the cornerback blitz, something that Pete Carroll is very fond of, especially out of the slot.  In the last five seasons Antoine Winfield has produced 6.5 sacks, which is not a staggering number but not an irrelevant one either for a cornerback. When one considers that games missed over that span it is even more impressive. Winfield can clearly be an interesting occasional weapon rushing the passer out of the slot, something that makes him even more appealing to the Seahawks.

A visit is no guarantee of a signing but this one caught my eye because Antoine Winfield appears to be a really good fit for this Seattle team. As a Super Bowl contender the Seahawks should be looking to sign older players at a discounted price to help them win over the short term the way the Patriots have been doing for years. I don’t know exactly what Antoine Winfield’s price is but I can’t imagine he would be particularly cost prohibitive and it seems like he would be an excellent addition due to his ability to stop the run, rush the passer, and hold up in in coverage, even during his twilight years.

January 24, 2013; Honolulu, HI, USA; NFC quarterback Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks (3) claps during practice for the 2013 Pro Bowl at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Given that outside of the Matt Flynn trade it’s pretty quiet around here, I thought I would embark on something of a thought experiment to help pass the time. It’s often said that, “every man has his price” and that saying got me thinking, what is Russell Wilson’s price? More specifically, what price would the Seahawks accept to part with Russell Wilson? Not that I would want him to leave, I’m just curious if it would be even remotely possible to trade for him. Wilson is immensely valuable because he is 24, he costs nothing, and he is already a top 10 quarterback in the NFL. I can’t recall when an asset of that caliber has ever been made available which is what makes it such an interesting thought experiment (at least as far as I’m concerned).

The first place to start would be what the Redskins paid for the 2^nd overall pick in the 2012 draft that they knew was going to be Robert Griffin III. In order to obtain that pick, the Redskins traded the Rams the 6^th overall pick and 38^th overall pick in 2012 as well as first round picks in 2013 and 2014. That’s quite the bounty and an interesting starting point but there is absolutely no way Schneider would trade Wilson for a similar package.

Although RGIII was clearly something special, at the time of that trade he had never taken a snap in the NFL let alone performed at an elite level. Russell Wilson has performed at an elite level in the NFL and even won a playoff game in his rookie season. How much more value does Wilson have now than Griffin ? I’d say to start you could add two second round picks to the mix to make it an even three 1^st  rounders and 2^nd rounders. John Schneider is now listening but he’s not really paying attention. So a quarterback desperate team decides they’ll do one more year of forking over their high draft picks, now is trading Wilson worth thinking about? Now we’re talking about four 1st rounders and four 2^nd rounders.  Is that enough?

Given that an unprecedented draft bounty is being discussed, the Seahawks would have to seriously consider it. Russell Wilson is a franchise player but with that many picks Seattle could create a dynasty. The problem is that they are going for it this year and as a result need some kind of quarterback in return. Pete Carroll believes in the point-guard role player quarterback so conceivably that he wouldn’t think this fictional quarterback needs to be particularly good for his team to succeed, merely good enough.  If we look at teams drafting near the top of the draft we can put together these ridiculous hypothetical packages including quarterbacks that might be able to manage games for the 2013 Seahawks, in Pete Carrolls view.

#1: Jaguars offer 2^nd overall and 33^rd overall picks in 2013 and 1^st and 2^nd round picks in 2014,2015 and 2016 as well as QB Chad Henne or Blaine Gabbert.

This is an interesting thought because the picks this year are so high but neither quarterbacks are good enough that the Seahawks could be confident in winning in 2013, unless Carroll somehow unleashed Gabbert’s latent potential. However, if Schneider didn’t think Henne or Gabbert was the answer he could draft Geno Smith 2^nd overall. If you really liked Geno Smith then this deal would be worth considering, but it is such a monumental risk for both sides that of course it would never happen.

#2: Bills offer 8^th overall and 41^st overall picks in 2013 and 1^st and 2^nd round picks in 2014, 2015 and 2016 as well as QB Tarvaris Jackson.

The picks aren’t nearly as good but there is familiarity with Jackson who could likely win with this Seahawks team behind them. The likely inability to get Geno Smith as well as Buffalo’s potential to make a quick turnaround with a quality quarterback and make the future picks less desirable makes this a no-go for John Schneider. If you squinted hard enough (like dangerously hard) you could see the Bills making this offer given their desperation to bring Ralph Wilson a Super Bowl.

#3 Jets offer 9^th and 39^th overall picks in 2013 and 1^st and 2^nd round picks in 2014, 2015, and 2016 as well as QB Mark Sanchez

Very similar to the Bills deal, and including another QB that Pete Carroll is familiar with in Mark Sanchez. Sanchez is likely worse than Jackson, and while you could argue he has more upside, I wouldn’t. Schneider says no and I don’t think the Jets could get away with attempting something this bold in that market.

No other teams in the top 10 fit the criteria for creating such a package: Browns (no 2^nd round pick in 2013), Eagles (have both Michael Vick and Nick Foles), Lions (Matt Stafford), Chiefs (traded for Alex Smith), Raiders (traded for Matt Flynn), Cardinals (traded for Carson Palmer), and Titans (giving Jake Locker a chance).

All in all what we’ve learned here is probably nothing. It’s pretty clear that Russell Wilson is not on the trading block, nor should he be. What I find interesting is that even the starting place for this hypothetical is fairly ridiculous. Trading for Wilson would require the kind of bounty no team would be willing to give because it would be betting it all on one player who could get injured or regress. With that in mind, it seems clear that Wilson is an illiquid asset. It’s kind of cool to think that the Seahawks’ franchise player is so talented and such a good contract value that you actually could not trade him. A counter intuitive thought that is also comforting somehow. Not that it takes a 1,000 words for Seahawks fans to know that the team is in good hands at quarterback. To conclude I will do what Russell Wilson would do and simply say “Go Hawks.”

August 18 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Flynn (15) in the second quarter of a preseason game against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

When it became clear that Matt Flynn was on the trading block I must confess I had mixed feelings. I like Flynn and I feel for him because things probably didn’t work out exactly as he planned last year through no fault of his own. The ascendance of Russell Wilson was something that very few predicted and Flynn had done nothing to lose his perch atop the Seahawks depth chart except be in competition with a truly special player. I hope he gets an opportunity to start because I think he’s among the 32 best QB’s in the league and deserves a shot. Additionally the return the Seahawks stand to gain in terms of draft picks and salary cap relief is going to be very useful, both for resigning a guy like Kam Chancellor and restocking the roster with quality depth. I understand and agree with the rationale behind dealing Flynn but the eternal pessimist in me really would like an elite Russell Wilson insurance policy in a year where the Seahawks are really going for it. That said, although it looks like the Raiders, Jaguars, and Bills are the front runners for Flynn, rumors of his departure got me thinking of just how many teams Matt Flynn could start for at this moment in time. I’m a guy who likes to base his theories on statistics and to be honest there aren’t a ton of statistics on Flynn so this is more subjective than I’d like, but it’s just a fun thought experiment.  Quarterback depth charts aren’t finished yet but there isn’t a star QB in the draft that I’m convinced would be better than Flynn anyway.  So let’s take a look at just how many teams Mr. Flynn could start for in today’s NFL:

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills

#1 QB: Tavaris Jackson

Is Flynn an upgrade? Yes. The Seahawks brought in Flynn as an upgrade over Jackson just a year ago and Buffalo seems to be gunning for Flynn so this one is pretty easy.

New York Jets

#1 QB: Mark Sanchez

Is Flynn an upgrade? Yes. Mark Sanchez is awful. Sanchez has completed 55.1% of his passes in his career with more interceptions than touchdowns. Flynn may be something of an unknown quantity but I know he’s better than Sanchez.

Miami Dolphins

#1 QB: Ryan Tannehill

Is Flynn an upgrade? Maybe, but I’ll go with no. Tannehill showed a great deal of potential as a rookie last year and could be poised for a breakout. With the kind of seasons RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson had last year people seem to forget that quarterbacks often take a while to develop.

New England Patriots

#1 QB: Tom Brady

Is Flynn an upgrade? No. Just no.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers

#1 QB: Ben Roethlisberger

Is Flynn an upgrade? Definitely not. Two rings and underrated statistics place Roethlisberger among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens

#1 QB: Joe Flacco

Is Flynn an upgrade? No. You’d hope not for Baltimore’s sake given what they are paying Flacco.

Cincinnati Bengals

#1 QB: Andy Dalton

Is Flynn an upgrade? No. Dalton is no superstar but he’s a good quarterback, not one you would be looking to replace.

Cleveland Browns

Top QB on the Depth Chart: Brandon Weeden

Is Flynn an upgrade? I’d say yes. Weeden may only be a sophomore but he’s two years older than Flynn so it’s not as if there is a ton to dream on in terms of his development. I doubt the Cleveland front office would agree, but I just can’t see Weeden as a franchise player.

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans

#1 QB: Matt Schaub

Is Flynn an upgrade? No. Schaub is getting a great deal of flak with Houston’s failure to go deep in the playoffs the last two years but he remains a solid starting quarterback.

Indianapolis Colts

#1 QB: Andrew Luck

Is Flynn an upgrade? No. I would like to say here that Andrew Luck’s rookie year has been heavily overrated. He put up enormous yards because the Colts threw so much and he had difficulty with accuracy and avoiding turnovers. Not to say he doesn’t have an incredibly bright future ahead of him because he does, I guess that’s just a little bit of Russell Wilson fan rant that needed to come out. No one would rather have Matt Flynn than Andrew Luck though.

Jacksonville Jaguars

#1 QB: Chad Henne/Blaine Gabbert (?)

Is Flynn an upgrade? Yes. Very much so. This is where I suspect he winds up for a reunion with Gus Bradley. It’s funny how that is a storyline people have mentioned when Flynn was the backup QB and Bradley was the defensive coordinator, I wonder to what extend they know each other…

Tennessee Titans

#1 QB: Jake Locker

Is Flynn an upgrade? This is a tough one. I think in all likelihood Flynn is an upgrade on Locker who is probably a bust. However, Locker is only 25 and has only started 11 games in his career and you have to think Locker deserves a little more time to show he belongs. Verdict: Reluctant no.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos

#1 QB: Peyton Manning

Is Flynn an upgrade? No.

San Diego Chargers

#1 QB: Phillip Rivers

Is Flynn an upgrade? Two years ago this question would have been a joke. Now I have to pause for a second but Rivers still deserves a chance to regain his elite form and hasn’t been as bad over the last two years as people think. (Passer Ratings of 88.7 and 88.6 just to give you an idea)

Kansas City Chiefs

#1 QB: Alex Smith

Is Flynn an upgrade? The Chiefs must not think so because they paid far more for Smith than Flynn is going to cost. Smith is better but Flynn will most likely be a better value.

Oakland Raiders

#1 QB: Carson Palmer (for now)

Is Flynn an upgrade? Sadly yes. I remember when Palmer was an elite quarterback but those days are deep in the past. Palmer has been a huge disappointment in Oakland, especially given the price they paid for him. Oakland is in the running for Flynn and I’d assume Palmer would get cut if the Raiders grab Flynn. It would be funny if we then signed Palmer as a backup but I’m getting ahead of myself.

NFC EAST

New York Giants

#1 QB: Eli Manning

Is Flynn an upgrade? No, personally I despise Manning but there is no way for me to realistically claim Flynn is the better player

Washington Redskins

#1 QB: RGIII

Is Flynn an upgrade? Easy no.

Dallas Cowboys

#1 QB: Tony Romo

Is Flynn an upgrade? No. Romo is a really good quarterback who seems one of the best in the sport at attracting undeserved criticism. Thanks for that playoff win though, Tony.

Philadelphia Eagles

#1 QB: Mike Vick

Is Flynn an upgrade? I’m going to say yes here. Vick is getting old and breaking down. He was an absolute mess last year and only demonstrated the ability to be an above average passer once, in 2010.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers

#1 QB: Aaron Rodgers

Is Flynn an upgrade? Another quick no.

Detroit Lions

#1 QB: Matt Stafford

Is Flynn an upgrade? Stafford and the Lions had a nasty year in 2012 but this is a very easy no.

Chicago Bears

#1 QB: Jay Cutler

Is Flynn an upgrade? No. There are many dislikable things about Jay Cutler but he is a good player with a terrible supporting cast and has been for years. For some reason the Bears just can’t provide him with any pass protection (hands up if you think Jermaine Bushrod is the answer).

Minnesota Vikings

#1 QB: Christian Ponder

Is Flynn an upgrade? Maybe. This is another tough one. Despite Percy Harvin’s opinion of him Ponder is young and improving and so I don’t think I could describe Flynn as a definite upgrade.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints

#1 QB: Drew Brees

Is Flynn an upgrade? No. no. no.

Carolina Panthers

#1 QB: Cam Newton

Is Flynn an upgrade? Newton has some serious detractors but one would have to say no here.

Atlanta Falcons

#1 QB: Matt Ryan

Is Flynn an upgrade? Nope.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

#1 QB: Josh Freeman

Is Flynn an upgrade? It’s possible but Freeman still has upside remaining at 25 and if the accuracy that abandoned him last year returns he will go back to being a solid starter. Tentative no.

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers

#1 QB: Colin Kaepernick

Is Flynn an upgrade? Not likely

St. Louis Rams

#1 QB: Sam Bradford

Is Flynn an upgrade? First truly bold call… Yes. Bradford turns 26 this year and has only shown marginal growth as a quarterback in his three years in the league.

Arizona Cardinals

#1 QB Drew Stanton

Is Flynn an upgrade? Yes. Stanton hasn’t played a great deal more than Flynn and when he has he’s been much worse. Stanton is also a year older.

People often say things like, “Player X  could start for X number of teams” (they usually use real players and numbers to be fair) but they rarely back it up. This used to come up quite a bit with Maurice Morris when he was backing up Shaun Alexander. I figured I would actually take a look exactly how many teams I figure Flynn could start for, and based on this highly subjective analysis I’d say that he would be an upgrade at quarterback for eight teams. That’s a quarter of the NFL. Flynn is a real asset, and as much as it would be nice to keep him around he’s a luxury considering he could really be a starter elsewhere. I look forward to seeing what kind of return the Seahawks could get for someone who is quite clearly among the top 32 quarterbacks in the league. 

Jan 6, 2013; Landover, MD, USA; Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Alan Branch (99) celebrates pressuring Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III (10) during the second half of the NFC Wild Card playoff game at FedEx Field. The Seahawks won 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

With free agency winding down, especially for the Seahawks I would imagine, it seems about time to take stock of where Seattle sits heading into the draft. It’s no secret the Seahawks are a good team, no amount of east-coast bias could blind the football world to that fact. The Seahawks may well be a great team, in fact I have them in the top five as we stand at this moment. As a result, this article is going to be much shorter than it might have been in previous years. Today what I’m going to examine is remaining areas of concern for the 2013 Seahawks. We are a couple of draft picks and perhaps a few bargain bin free agents from a final roster at the moment and with any luck these shockingly few holes will be filled come the regular season. The following is an account of what’s missing/a shopping list for this front office:

#1: A starting quality DT to pair with Brandon Mebane

This need might be satisfied in a fairly anti-climactic manner with the return of Alan Branch but that is no guarantee. Branch is only 28, he’s available, and he’s probably relatively cheap. None of that is anything to sneeze at. Additionally he has started 31 of 32 games for the Seahawks and provided four sacks and solid run stuffing during that time. This is also noteworthy. Contrarily Branch only had one sack and one tackle for loss last season compared to three and five in 2011. Branch is a known quantity but he’s far from exciting and most definitely upgrade-able  I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle brought back Branch but I also think there’s a good chance they draft a DT with one of their first two picks in the draft. These scenarios are far from mutually exclusive as you can never have too many quality defensive linemen. It’s important not to forget about Jaye Howard who failed to make an impact last year but was a fairly well regarded prospect coming into the draft and could always surprise.

#2: A starting quality OLB to go with Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright

This is the second biggest hole I see on the Seahawks right now and I’m not entirely sure there isn’t a viable candidate on the roster at this moment. That says a great deal about this team. Malcom Smith appears to have some talent and impressed me in his brief 3 game stint as a starter last year. Am I comfortable going in to the season with him as the starter though? Not without a serious back up plan. If the Seahawks insist on being boring I’m sure they could bring back Leroy Hill although he is far from the explosive talent he once was. My best guess is Seattle drafts an OLB in either the 2^nd or 3^rd round has him battle Smith for the job, with Smith likely returning to his role as a backup.

#3: A slot cornerback

Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner’s success as a corner tandem is well documented but in the today’s pass happy NFL you need three quality corners on defense. Trufant was fairly underwhelming last year and seems unlikely to be brought back in 2013. Walter Thurmond III is probably capable of playing this role but he simply cannot be counted on to stay healthy. Jeremy Lane is also a player who conceivably could be the guy for this spot but I see him as more of a backup on the outside with his size and lack of elite quickness.  There are question marks surrounding both internal options and a couple interesting guys floating around in free agency (ie. Charles Woodson, Adam Jones, Tracy Porter) but they are probably cost prohibitive for a team that has been spending a surprising amount of money lately. The most likely scenario is Seattle tries to see if one of their two guys can stick as the third corner and takes a chance on someone later in the draft as well, as they are wont to do.

#4: A starting right tackle

This is where the shopping list enters pipe dream territory. Breno Giacomini is almost certainly the starting RT for the Seahawks in 2013. The problem is he’s not very good. He’s probably not the worst starting RT in the league but his inconsistency and stupid penalties are cringe inducing at times. There are some quality OT’s available in free agency at the moment who would represent a significant upgrade (Sebastian Vollmer and Andre Smith jump to mind) but they remain firmly outside Seattle’s price range barring any major cap casualties. Quality offensive tackles don’t last long in the draft so I doubt an immediate starter can be found late in the second round, but you never know. Unfortunately I think Giacomini is the Seahawks’ only realistic option at the moment.

Lists of five are much more aesthetically pleasing than lists of four but I really can’t think of anything else the Seahawks truly need. Quarterback? Check. Runningback? Check. Wide Receiver? Pretty impressive with the addition of Harvin. Tight End? Fine presuming Miller is sticking around, which he seems to be. Even the offensive line is has two Pro Bowlers and quite a few options at guard with upside. The Seahawks have also loaded up on pass rushers and they already had a stacked secondary so I really don’t know what else they would desperately desire. Quality depth is a must and that’s largely what this draft class is expected to provide, but by and large the Seahawks are set. Being a Seattle Seahawks fan at the moment feels like being a spoiled child who can’t even think of what he wants for Christmas because he has everything. Everything can always go wrong at the drop of a hat (and in my experience as a sports fan it does 85-90% of the time) but we are looking at a pretty strong squad heading into the 2013 draft. It’s a good thing I wrote this article now because knowing how well this front office drafts there might be nothing to say on this topic come April 28^th.

Oct 25, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin (12) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Metrodome. The Buccaneers defeated the Vikings 36-17. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

In the wake of the fairly surprising Cliff Avril signing the Percy Harvin addition may seem like old news but I thought I’d revisit the distant past if you’ll indulge me. First off I’d like to say that I am a big fan of the move because I think Percy Harvin is a unique talent who makes this offence 12.8%* more dangerous. His YAC ability, blazing speed and versatility make him enormously valuable and at 24 he is at a juncture of his career where his production is likely to ascend over the next couple of years. Pre- prime players who are already stars don’t often make their way to the trade market and when they do the cost is bound to be high. That’s what I plan to discuss today, the cost of Percy Harvin. No NFL transaction exists in a vacuum, if I were to ask any Seahawks fan a week ago, “Hey would you like to have to have Percy Harvin on the Seahawks?” the overwhelming majority of them would have said, “Yes please.” However, a small minority of alert fans/cynics would ask, “What is it going to cost me?” Harvin is a great player but regardless of his greatness there is a price that would be too high for his services. Minnesota couldn’t have simply asked for three 1^st round picks and Russell Wilson. When we analyze the price of Mr. Harvin there are two components, the first one being the draft picks the Seahawks sent to Minnesota and the second one being Harvin’s lucrative contract extension. We’ll start by looking at the draft pick cost.

The Cost of Percy Harvin Part One: Draft Picks

When the trade was all said and done the Seahawks had given Minnesota the 25^th overall pick in the 2013 draft, a 2013 7^th rounder and a 2014 3^rd rounder. The real question to the value of these picks is what kind of players you can expect to acquire with these type of picks. The centerpiece of the deal is the 25^th overall pick this year so forgive me if I spend approximately 647† times more effort determining its value. In ascending order of value:

2013 7^th round pick: The Seahawks have the 8^th, 14^th and 25^th picks in the 7^th round and I was unable to determine which one went to Minnesota but ultimately it doesn’t make a ton of difference. A 7^th round pick is an absolute lottery ticket in terms of acquiring an NFL caliber special teamer let alone a starter or difference maker of any kid. Do not let the loss of this pick trouble you.

2014 3^rd round pick: This pick is actually significant. 3^rd round picks tend to play some kind of role in the NFL and finding a starter here is far from unheard of. Stars like NaVarro Bowman, Eric Decker and of course Russell Wilson were all 3^rd round picks as well as the newest Seahawk, Cliff Avril. A 3^rd round pick is far from a sure thing but if you choose wisely you can find a very cost effective starter. If I knew exactly which pick this would be I’d give some examples of previous examples of players chosen at that spot but alas I don’t feel comfortable slotting Seattle in for the 32^nd pick just yet. It should be considered that Seattle is fairly certain to be picking in the bottom section of the round making this worse than most 3^rd round picks but far from an insignificant asset.

2013 1^st round pick (25^th overall): This is the biggest piece that the Seahawks will be relinquishing and by a fairly heavy margin. To give you a sense of the kind of players available at the 25^th spot below is a list of all the 25^th overall picks from the 2000’s with a brief career summary.

2000- Chris Hovan DT- Vikings

Hovan was an undersized penetrating DT who had a 10 year career concluding in 2009. He was very durable playing in 156 (149 starts) of a possible 160 games with the peak of his career coming in 2001-2002 where he had 11.5 sacks and a 2^nd team All-Pro berth in 2002. Good pick, good player who was great at times.

2001- Freddie Mitchell WR- Eagles

Although Freddie Mitchell was an interesting character who had some memorable moments in his career, he will likely be remembered as a disappointment and a bust. Mitchell lasted 4 years in the NFL where he was only able to total 1263 yards and 5 touchdowns despite catching balls from a then-elite Donavan McNabb. Hardly a Ryan Leaf caliber bust, but not a good player and not even really a starter (started 17 games over 4 years despite dressing for 63).

2002- Charles Grant DE- Saints

Grant was a stout DE at 6-3 282 who was known for a well-rounded game. His best years were in 2003 and 2004 when he put up 10 and 10.5 sacks respectively. In his later years Grant was less of a pure pass rusher but remained a valuable starter. Grant would end his career at age 31 with 47 career sacks. He spent all 8 years of his career with the Saints, starting 106 games for them during that span. Another good pick to grab a good starter over a long period of time.

2003- William Joseph DT- Giants

Joseph had a quiet 6 year career (4 with the Giants) in which he totaled 17 starts and 7 sacks. He started 10 games in 2005 but was never able to crack the starting lineup with any regularity otherwise. Joseph had the kind of career that thousands of NFL hopefuls would die for but not what one would expect from a 1^st round pick.

2004- Ahmad Carroll CB- Packers

Carroll is a player that I recall being fairly poorly thought of by Packers fans when he started for them in 2004 and 2005 and that seems to make sense because he was a special teams player for the rest of his career until 2009. Much like William Joseph the 5 year career that Carroll had which included 28 starts would be the envy of many players but it isn’t exactly what a team would want from its first round pick. On the plus side, Carroll had some success in the CFL where he won the Grey Cup last year with the Toronto Argonauts and promptly retired. So in a way he sailed off into the sunset, sort of.

2005- Jason Campbell QB- Redskins

Campbell was a QB that I always kind of liked but he wasn’t a franchise quarterback in the end and when your 1^st round quarterback isn’t a franchise quarterback he will be considered a disappointment. The conservative Campbell has only thrown for 20 TD’s once and has a disappointing 6.7 career yards per attempt. Campbell is the kind of guy who is probably in the top 32 best quarterbacks around at any given time but you know that if he’s starting for your team you are in need of a different solution. Hard to evaluate a player like this who is good and has been a starter but isn’t good enough and probably shouldn’t have been a starter. To be fair to Campbell he never had a ton to work with in either Washington or Oakland.

2006- Santonio Holmes WR- Steelers

Probably the first player we’ve dealt with so far who many would consider to be an elite talent. The 2008 Super Bowl MVP has had an excellent career with 5507 yards and 35 TD’s so far to go along with 59.9 yards receiving per game. His numbers have declined since going to the Jets, probably in large part due to poor QB play. Seems to be spending his prime languishing on an awful team with an awful passing offense but he’s making enough money that it’s hard to feel sorry for him. Excellent player and an excellent pick.

2007- Jon Beason MLB- Panthers

Beason is an absolute stud. Or perhaps he was. It’s hard to say exactly. In Beason’s first four years in the league he was a Pro Bowler thrice and a first team All-Pro once. He was a tackling machine who was a major asset to a relatively inept Carolina defense in both the rushing and passing games. Unfortunately, Beason has only played 5 games in the last two years due to injury and it’s pretty difficult to project what his career might look like from here. Even so, most teams would take 64 excellent starts and 3 Pro Bowl appearances from their 1^st round picks.

2008- Mike Jenkins CB- Cowboys

Jenkins is currently a free agent and I haven’t heard of any team expressing interest yet. Not to say that his NFL career is done but that should give some indication of where Mike Jenkins is at. Jenkins made the Pro Bowl in 2009 after hauling in 5 interceptions and deflecting 19 passes but never had another season even remotely as impressive. In his five years in the league he has amassed only 8 interceptions and he lost his starting gig with Dallas last year. Jenkins was a starter for 3 years, one of them good and that in itself has some value but the perception of him suffers because he never lived up to the promise he showed in his second season.

2009- Vontae Davis CB- Dolphins

The fact the Vontae Davis is already on his second team is somewhat alarming but the Colts corner has been a solid starter over the last four years who may not have reached his potential yet. At 24 it seems a bit early to render judgment on the athletic Davis other than to say that the fact he is already an established starter in the NFL bodes well and he is probably a better player than at least half of the players listed above him.

2010- Tim Tebow QB- Broncos

There are a million things that could be said about Tim Tebow. This article is about Percy Harvin so I will refrain from a tempting tangent. I will say that in my humble opinion Tim Tebow is not a good quarterback and he may well be an adequate football player in a different capacity but even if this is the case he should be thought of as a disappointment in the context of being a 1^st round pick.

2011- James Carpenter OT- Seahawks

There are reasons to be disappointed with this pick, like injury concerns and the fact Carpenter lacks the feet to play RT, a positon of need on the Seahawks, but the fact is Carpenter looks capable of becoming a quality starter at guard. If you can get a quality starter it’s hard to complain especially when you are picking late enough in the first round that the truly elite talents are unlikely to be available. This looks like a fine pick if Carpenter can stay healthy.

2012- Don’t’a Hightower- ILB Patriots

Hightower started 13 games as a rookie and was productive with 4 sacks, 2 FR and a touchdown. He looks like a keeper but it’s really far too early to say if this was a wise pick for the patriots.

There’s the list. There are some good players here but there are very few elite players. Beason is undoubtedly one, providing 3 of the 4 collective Pro Bowl appearances among these 13 players. You could probably argue that Santonio Holmes was an elite player with Pittsburgh and he is a Superbowl MVP so that’s 2/13 (15%) elite players. Elite is fairly subjective so let’s talk about starters. If we call we generously call James Carpenter and Don’t’a Hightower starters we have 10 starters (although Carroll and Campbell could be viewed as disappointments in the role). I suspect that’s an unusually high number for this area of the draft and given the small sample I imagine it’s not very predictive. I would guess that if you included picks 23 through 27 you would find a higher bust rate. This study of 25^th picks is more descriptive of the type of player you are likely to find in that spot than predictive of the future in any way. This history suggests that at the 25^th pick you are likely to find a solid starter for your team who is not a Pro Bowler (Hovan, Grant, Jenkins and Davis fall into this category with Carpenter and Hightower pretty good bets to fit into this category). On the surface it seems very unlikely that you will find a Harvin-quality player. However, the Vikings don’t necessarily need to find a Harvin quality player to come away from this trade ok. The beauty of a late first round pick  is that not only are you likely to get a starter, you are likely to get one at an incredibly low price. Last year Don’t’a’ Hightower got a 4 year contract worth 7.7 million from the Patriots out of the draft, which is absolute peanuts when you consider what a 22 year old starting caliber linebacker could fetch on a hypothetical open market. The 25^th pick is immensely valuable because the Vikings are not only likely to restock their talent but at an incredibly discount. When you add that to the 7^th round lottery ticket and the substantial but somewhat mysterious 2014 3^rd round pick you are looking at quite the haul for Minnesota and a heavy price paid for Seattle. Now let’s look more briefly (I promise) at the contract.

The Cost of Percy Harvin Part Two: Harvin’s Extension

I realize the journey to determine what the Seahawks gave up in draft picks was a long one so I’ll try and be a bit shorter here. The reality is that if brevity is truly the soul of wit than I am a truly witless man. Sometimes numbers speak louder than words so I’m going to throw up a career stats and contract comparison of Percy Harvin to Mike Wallace and Dwayne Bowe, the big WR’s who signed as free agents this year.

If you look at this chart Harvin is the youngest, cheapest (on a yearly basis), and most productive, on a per game basis. The Seahawks are paying the market price for a receiver of Harvin’s skill level. That means that Harvin’s surplus value comes from extraordinary production not a team friendly contract but that’s ok. Harvin is capable of providing extraordinary production and has done so in the past with regularity. His youth also makes the contract more sensible as the Chiefs will be paying a premium for some of Dwayne Bowe’s decline years, and while the Dolphins get years 26-31 with Wallace, which should be productive, I’m more confident in Harvin’s 24-30 years as they make up the heart of his prime. There is no doubt that this is an expensive contract but it is a fair contract and the Seahawks are paying a premium price for a premium player.

Overall I hope this gives you a sense of what it costs to get a 24 year old star like Percy Harvin. The Seahawks relinquished a draft pick that is likely to provide value both in terms of talent and a cap friendly salary and two others as well as giving Harvin a contract that he must continue to produce in order to justify. The cost is high. We cannot pretend the Seahawks did not pay dearly for Percy Harvin. People are often naturally risk-averse and this is a risk. I think that this is a risk Seattle won’t regret because Harvin is the rare player who can produce enough to be valuable even at a very high salary. It is my belief this move makes this team better in the short and long term but Minnesota got theirs too (especially when you consider the cap room they save by not extending Harvin) and it was far from the steal. This deal is high risk, high reward and high stakes. Sounds like an awful lot of fun to me. Also sounds an awful lot like Pete Carroll.

*If you remember this asterisk from the beginning of the article congratulations. I just wanted you to note that I made that number up based on absolutely nothing (but it sounds vaguely plausible right?). It’s important to be transparent.

† Apparently I was in the making up number mood today…

Dec 30, 2012, Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman (25) warms up before a game against the St. Louis Rams at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

I would like to preface this article by saying that I absolutely understand why some people don’t like Richard Sherman. Sherman is undeniably cocky (some people would say ‘confident’ but I think it’s pretty clear he’s both), he is opinionated and he can be abrasive. That combination isn’t going to work for everyone and I think Mr. Sherman knows that, though I doubt that he cares. Sherman’s appearance on ‘First Take’ is stirring up a great deal of controversy and many are being critical of him, and to an extent it’s fair. He didn’t have to claim to be better at life than Skip Bayless and by making comments of a more personal and unprofessional nature the intelligence of his point was lost on many. I don’t blame people who are tuning Sherman out because of the way he conducts himself, but they are missing out on a sharp guy who has some insightful things to say if you are willing to sift through some of the noise.

What Richard Sherman really did today was something that people don’t do nearly enough, he tried to get a sportscaster to provide some kind of objective basis for his statement. The world of sports is so full of clichés and contrived narratives that people start believing things very strongly without even really knowing why or having a coherent explanation for their opinion. Although the whole unedited clip is worth watching (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nun5scYroxA) what truly interests me starts around the 6:30 mark. Sherman astutely points out is that people can state whatever opinion they want but those opinions can easily be discredited because there are no facts behind them, whereas his case as the best corner in the NFL is based on statistics that cannot be disputed. Ultimately he challenges Bayless by saying, “What are your facts?” Below is the main body of Bayless’s response:

“You get to play across from another corner who is really good and in your league, and it helps you, and your front seven is really good, so it really helps you. It’s made you- you’re in a perfect spot on one of the best defenses in football and you’ve gone along for that ride.”

After which, Sherman responded, “Once again I haven’t heard a fact yet. I’ve heard a lot of opinions, so I’ll tell you a couple facts…”

In this case Sherman is 100% right. If we break it down a little further we realize there is nothing valid about Bayless’s rationale. Bayless claims that Brandon Browner makes things easier for Sherman but I’m not sure how that makes sense. Browner and Sherman are all the way across the field from each other and have no ability to influence each other’s performance on any given play. I suppose an argument could be made that because Browner is a quality player Sherman doesn’t have to follow the opposing #1 receiver on 100% of the snaps but he did that often anyway and did not show a dip in his play when Browner was absent due to suspension. Browner helps the Seahawks defense be effective but I don’t exactly see how Browner improves Sherman’s play. It would have made more sense for Bayless to claim that Earl Thomas’s excellence allows Sherman to be more aggressive which, while true, is far too little to account for Sherman’s All-Pro season.

The second claim that Bayless makes is that Sherman is helped by an excellent front seven that the Seahawks have assembled. While the Seahawks’ #1 ranked scoring defense does indeed have a talented front seven it is unreasonable to credit it for Sherman’s success. The way that front sevens assist cornerbacks like Sherman is with a great pass rush that doesn’t give receivers time to get open or quarterbacks time to throw the ball. The thing is the Seahawks have had a mediocre pass rush as long as Sherman has been in the league. Although sacks aren’t the be all and end all of pass rushing evaluation the Seahawks were 18^th in the league in sacks last year and 19^th in 2011, suggesting this is not an elite pass rush propping up Sherman’s production. Pass-rush has been a major concern over that time period and continues to be, especially with Chris Clemons’s injury.  If anything, the Seahawks’ elite secondary may be helping the front seven get coverage sacks.

The thing is that the things that Bayless says aren’t entirely wrong, they just aren’t right. Brandon Browner is a really good corner, but it’s not clear how that makes Richard Sherman better. Yes, Seattle has a good front seven, but not in a way that demonstrably inflates Sherman’s production. When Bayless is explicitly asked for facts, he provides opinions and ones that don’t really hold up upon further review. This happens all the time and yet Richard Sherman is one of the few to call someone out on it. He tries to hold Bayless to a fairly modest standard. He wants a man whose career involves providing information to provide an objective basis for his claims and Bayless fails in this task. In my opinion that’s what makes this video clip and Richard Sherman awesome. The world deserves a better class of sportscaster than one that spews assertions that he not only has no means for supporting but no intention of supporting. Otherwise what’s the point in watching these shows? Go to any bar and you can find a drunk guy with an unfounded but strong opinion on something in the world of sports. Without providing some kind of objective information I really don’t see how a Bayless is any better than that guy, in fact he may well be less entertaining. I don’t mean to target Bayless in particular; today he merely serves as an example of what’s wrong with some, not all, sportscasters and sportswriters.

Ultimately I’m not saying that Sherman is necessarily better than Revis. Bayless may well be right. Sherman may well be wrong. I’m not sure there is a definitive answer, but maybe there is. That is a debate for another day. It really doesn’t matter. Sherman had a case to make and he went about trying to make his case the right way. Bayless had a case to make and he went about it the wrong way. Mr. Sherman pointed that out, he might have considered doing so in a less confrontational way, but in my opinion, telling the truth, even if bluntly, doesn’t make you a jerk. Some people’s opinion of Richard Sherman has gone down over the last couple days, mine has gone up. Both options are perfectly understandable.  I expect there is a massive spectrum of opinions of Richard Sherman’s character, but hopefully we can all agree the guy knows how to make a point.

January 24, 2013; Honolulu, HI, USA; NFC free safety Earl Thomas of the Seattle Seahawks (29) runs with the ball during practice for the 2013 Pro Bowl at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

With the upcoming draft dominating the NFL news landscape in recent weeks I started thinking over the last few Seahawks draft classes. On Monday I looked at John Schneider’s and Pete Carroll’s preferences and today I will examine the impact their draft picks have had over the last three years. Generally, I consider it too early to judge the quality of these drafts in their entirety. I do think it is fair to look at the production accumulated by unit for the classes under this regime and demonstrate the early impact they have had for the Seahawks. My initial assumption was that the draft classes of 2010-2012 have been very productive for Seattle and that proved to be entirely correct.

Let’s start with the very successful 2012 class:

Offense

In a defense-heavy draft these numbers were accumulated by, with the exception of J.R Sweezy’s playing time, Russell Wilson and Robert Turbin, both of whom were major contributors this year. Given the general success of Wilson’s rookie year, the number that really stands out here is the 843 rushing yards provided by these rookies. Those yards served as quite the compliment to Marshawn Lynch’s 1,590 yards as the feature back. The raw production is very good and probably trending upward for both players in the future.

Defense

Despite the fact the Seahawks drafted seven defensive players in 2012 almost all of the defensive production comes from Bobby Wagner. That being said, the Seahawks’ defensive rookies proved valuable in situational roles. Most notably Bruce Irvin and Greg Scruggs rushing the passer and getting 10 combined sacks. Also of note were performances by rookies asked to move up the depth chart (e.g. Jeremy Lane starting during Brandon Browner’s four game suspension). These numbers are already respectable and figure to improve, especially if Bruce Irvin continues to grow as a player.

In the 2011 draft class, we see a group of players that have contributed a great deal, especially on defense.

Offense

These measures of production don’t really include offensive line play and as a result this draft class looks a great deal worse than it is. Even so, the Seahawks’ top two picks in this draft have only combined for 31 of a possible 64 starts on the offensive line, which is far from ideal. James Carpenter has a chance to have a future as a starter in Seattle for years to come if he can stay healthy. John Moffit seems more likely to only provide depth on the line. The only other offensive player from this class, Kris Durham, has already moved on.

Defense

The 2011 draft class was a gold mine in terms of defensive talent. Headlined by CB Richard Sherman and OLB K.J Wright the 2011 draftees have more than held their own in the NFL thus far. Wright and Sherman are both quality starters and Byron Maxwell and Malcolm Smith are excellent depth players who have made plays when called upon. Nothing to complain about here.

Lastly, let’s examine the production the Seahawks have gotten from Schneider’s and Carroll’s 2010 inaugural draft class.

Offense

Russell Okung and Golden Tate are both excellent picks and they make up most of the numbers seen here. Anthony McCoy has done more than most 6^th round picks and Jameson Konz unfortunately never really delivered on his promise. It says something about the drafting acumen of Seattle’s front office when we actively contemplate 7^th round draft picks that never amount to anything.

Defense

These totals are compiled primarily by the safety duo of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor with contributions from Walter Thurmond III and Dexter Davis.

In the overall analysis there are a lot of numbers to chew on. Before I go further I’d like to point out the obvious flaws in them.

Firstly, the contributions of offensive lineman are downplayed because their on-field production is not quantified by the statistics I have used. This is especially unfortunate given the Seahawks have spent two of their last four first round picks on offensive linemen. Although their inclusion in terms of games and games started is significant, looking at these production charts does underplay the importance of players like Russell Okung or James Carpenter.

Secondly, although one could argue that in a way the number of games started by each draft class is the best way to measure their contribution to the franchise, it can be problematic because it prizes quantity over quality. Just because a player started or played in a game doesn’t mean they played well. On the other hand, if the player is terrible he is unlikely to play or start so there is some implication of effectiveness just by appearing in games consistently.

Lastly, by looking at draft picks only the contributions of undrafted free agent gems like Doug Baldwin and Brandon Browner are excluded.

Ultimately, I think the main idea to take from this is that Seattle’s front office has done a good job in selecting players that have provided significant, tangible, and quantifiable production for this franchise. The Seahawks roster has been turned over and completely remade during the Pete Carroll era and the primary vehicle for this overhaul has been the draft. In 2010, 7.7% of the starts made by Seahawks players were from draft picks of the current front office. In 2011 that number climbed to 28.4%, and last year is was 42.6%. More than player statistics, those numbers capture the impact of the last three draft classes. If John Schneider and Pete Carroll continue to have excellent drafts that number will continue growing. Give this duo another three years and we will be looking at a truly homegrown squad, and by and large those are the type of teams that win championships.