Nov 18, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans free safety Danieal Manning (38) forces Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert (11) to fumble in the first quarter at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

You’ll have to excuse me as I venture away from writing about just the Seahawks this morning. When stories about NFL teams using analytics appear on my radar, I take notice. I’ve also also taken an interest in the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason.

This is partly because I have tremendous respect for former Seahawks defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, who is now their head coach. It is also because Bradley is using Seattle as a mold in terms of on-field scheme and Pete Carroll’s philosophy of competition. I find it very fascinating.

One of the stories from the past week that won’t go away is that that the Jaguars are using statistical metrics to justify their selection of offensive tackle Luke Joeckel.

Apparently, when given 2.6 seconds or longer to throw, Blaine Gabbert was in the top third in the NFL in passer rating (13th out of 38 quarterbacks with enough passes to qualify). When given 2.5 seconds or less, he was horrible (34th). In response to this the Jaguars drafted Joeckel to ensure that Gabbert (hopefully) has at least 2.6 seconds to throw.

If this story is true, then I believe it is a poor use of analytical tools. When I see Gabbert’s performance based on his time to throw, I don’t conclude that he just needs more time.” Rather, I think see a much bigger (more obvious) problem.

If the conclusion is that Gabbert regularly faced too much pressure, that should show up in the stats as well, but it doesn’t. Gabbert was only under pressure for 32.7% of his throws. While that sounds like a lot, there were 16 quarterbacks who faced pressure on a higher percentage of throws.

The problem wasn’t that Gabbert couldn’t perform under pressure. His completion percentage when under pressure was actually the best in the NFL in 2012 (57.7%). His accuracy when under pressure was also good at 70.8%, 6th best in the NFL. Pressure, it seems, wasn’t the problem.

Another factor that could create the discrepancy is play-action. Play-action passes generally take longer to develop. They also tend to create holes in the defense that can be exploited. Looking at Gabbert’s play action stats, he completed passes at a rate almost 14% higher when using play-action compared to standard pass plays. That is the highest difference of any quarterback in the league. It should also be noted that when Gabbert had over 2.6 seconds to throw, he completed nearly half  of his play-action passes (46%).

All of that data would suggest that the Jaguars are better off simply using more play-action, and using the 2nd overall pick elsewhere. It also suggest that the true problem isn’t time, it’s Gabbert.

Gabbert’s inability to complete passes under 2.6 seconds suggests that he struggles to read defenses pre-snap and has no idea where he’s going with the ball based on the defensive alignment. For a player who has just completed his second  full season in the NFL, that’s a major problem.

I should briefly stop and recognize that I’m writing this because of a giant case of “coach-speak.” While Jaguar fans and NFL analysts are all up in arms because the team seems to be building around Gabbert, that is unlikely what is actually going on here.

As I said above, Bradley is rebuilding the Jaguars using the same methods and tools that Pete Carroll used with the Seahawks. Carroll spent the first two seasons rebuilding the roster, but didn’t address the quarterback position until year three. Instead, the team trotted out  two quarterbacks that were very clearly not part of the team’s long term plans.

That is most likely going on in Jacksonville, as well. The 2.6 seconds nonsense is to justify another year of Gabbert to the fans and players in the locker room. If it works out, that’s great, but no one really expects it to.

It’s very similar to the Seahawks in 2011 with Tarvaris Jackson. He was clearly not the long term solution at quarterback, but you would never have known it if all you did was listen to the Pete Carroll’s press conferences. Carroll had some Seahawks fans in a panic thinking that the team was about to commit to Jackson long term. Instead, he signed Matt Flynn and drafted Russell Wilson, and we all know how that worked out.

Basically, if you’re a Jaguars fan and you happened to find your way here, then I suggest being patient. Rebuilding the team won’t happen overnight, and Bradley likely won’t address the quarterback position as quickly as you want him to. You still have a gifted and charismatic coach leading the way. Just try not to get caught up in the coach-speak. He did coach under Carroll, after all.

Finally, if you’re a Seahawks fan who waded through this wall of text about another team, let me leave you with a final thought. How awesome is it that we are no longer stressing out over Seattle’s starting quarterback? We should all appreciate how awesome it is to have Russell Wilson under center in Seattle. I know I do.

Go Hawks!

At the same time I’m excited to get Dan Quinn on board. Quinn appear to be exactly what the Seahawks need to take the next step. He ran the same defense the Seahawks run (they even had a 300+ lb DE) at Florida, and he never didn’t have the 3rd down problems that plagued the Seahawks during Gus Bradley’s tenure.

Ultimately, we wont know if he’ll actually improve the defense until the games start, but I’m confident for now. The only problem is that if the Seahawks defense remains strong for over the next couple seasons, the Seahawks will again be looking for a DC again, because Quinn will be a HC somewhere. Though I’ll admit that it would be a good problem to have.

Dec 1, 2011; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell during the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks defeated the Eagles 31-14. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Getting Bevell back is big for the Seahawks. I know he’s not popular, but Bevell is a very good coach. He’s innovative, and puts his players in a position where they can be successful. He simply doesn’t get enough credit for his creative play designs and the new wrinkles he adds every week. Schematically he’s done a good job with the Seahawks offense.

Plus, I think it’s great that Russell Wilson wont have to learn another offense this offseason. I have full faith that he couple have if he’d needed to, but there’s no reason to make him do so if you can avoid it. Continuity, and letting him continue to grow in the current system will only help him be better in 2013.

And finally, it’s tough see a smart guy like John Idzik go. He and John Schneider made a good team. Seattle’s very positive cap situation is directly the result of Idzik’s work on contracts and such. He won’t be easy to replace, even if his impact is tough to notice for most fans.

I am surprised he got the GM job in NY though. It is certainly an interesting move by the Jets. A GM is always defined by their drafts, and Idzik isn’t a scout. Schneider did get Idzik involved in the scouting department to help him pad his resume, but that isn’t his background. His success as a GM will ultimately hinge on his hiring an assistant that will take care of his most important responsibility for him. That’s simply not a recipe for long term success.

At the same time, I think everyone with the Jets knows that. Their cap situation is a mess, especially the Mark Sanchez contract. Idzik was hired to fix that problem and get the roster and cap situation in sync. I’m confident he can do that. Just don’t be surprised if after 3-4 years he’s promoted into a vice president roll so that someone with a scouting background can be brought in.

Oct 30, 2011; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Gus Bradley during the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at CenturyLink Field. The Bengals defeated the Seahawks 34-12. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

On top of being a good coach, Bradley is also a very  charismatic person. He was going to “win” any interview he was given. He’s the type of guy who makes these decisions very easy on the owner and and GM.

He does inherit a mess down in Florida. They have no QB and little in the way of offensive talent. Blaine Gabbert was a bust, and the Jags now need ner answers. There are a few pieces, but that team isn’t close to competing.

Replacement possibilities for Seattle are many Dan Quinn is the name that jumps out right away if the team looks outside the organization. Internal options would be Rocky Seto and Ken Norton Jr. Also don’t be surprised if Carroll brings in someone completely unexpected. Carroll isn’t afraid to bring in guys who he’s never worked with before to bring in fresh idea, like he did with Darrell Bevell.

I’m curious to see if Bradley takes any coaches with him to help form his staff. If the Seahawks hire Quinn or someone from outside the org as their new DC, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Seto go with Bradley to become Bradley’s DC.

That is what is now happening to the Seahawks. Pete Carroll brought in (or retained from Mora’s staff, as is the case with Bradley) some great coaches. The Seahawks have been successful, so now those coaches are getting looked for head coaching positions around the league.

Here’s what’s going on this week:

Oct 30, 2011; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Gus Bradley during the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at CenturyLink Field. The Bengals defeated the Seahawks 34-12. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley

Bradley is in Philadelphia today interviewing for the 2nd time with the Eagles for their head coaching vacancy. The Eagles have interviewed 12 coaches to replace Andy Reid, and only Bradley so far has been called back for a second interview.

Bradley has been considered the “front runner” ever since Brian Kelly decided he wanted to stay at Notre Dame. Earlier today, Sirius NFL Radio said it was done, but then later changed their report and said they were only commenting on a rumor. From what I’m hearing, though, This will likely get to during today’s interview. I expect him to be officially named the Eagle’s head coach in the next couple days.

Bradley is also supposed to interview with the Chargers later this week, but I doubt he ever makes it to San Diego.

Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell

Bevell has also been invited back for a 2nd interview, but his promotion to head coach seem like much less of a sure thing. Bevell is headed to Chicago at some point this week to interview to become the head coach of the Bears.

But unlike Bradley, he’s not the only one getting a second interview. Marc Trestman and Bruce Arians have both been invited back as well. All 3 are good offensive minds and considered innovators. It is clear what Chicago is looking for in a head coach this time around.

I’ve been hearing that Trestman, who most recent coaches in Canada, is the front runner. I’m not sure if I believe that or not, as it has been tough to tell if that is coming from reports from inside the Bears organization, or just more noise from Jimmy Johnson’s mistaken report that Trestman was hired a week ago. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

What it means for the Seahawks

Very little. As I said above, this type of thing is built into Pete Carroll’s philosophy. He’ll have plenty of good coaches standing in line to get a chance to join his staff. The system wont change significantly, just the people who are running it will change.

Pete could even promote from within. Both Ken Norton Jr. and Rocky Seto are defensive coaches that are ready to be defensive coordinators, and both would do an excellent job in my opinion. On offense, handing the reigns over to Tom Cable would also make a ton of sense.

Either way, whether Carroll promotes from within or hires coaches from outside the organization, we can expect that things wont change significantly in the Seahawks scheme or playing style. When it comes to coaches, Pete Carroll is an expert at just reloading his staff and moving on.

Either way, I’ll continue offering my thoughts and optimism. But again, these are the most positive scenarios imaginable (and believable, if you’re a homer).

So here is another dose of homer optimism for everyone:

The Seattle Seahawks will have a defense that statistically ranks in the top half of the league.

Far fetched? Possibly.

And yes, I’m aware that last season’s defense ranked 30^th in the NFL last season in total yards allowed per game.

But the Seahawks have an entirely new coaching staff, several new players, and injuries aren’t as widespread and common as last season (yet).

Mike Holmgren is out, Jim Mora is in. Holmgren was an offensive genius and the offensive side of the football was his baby. Over the last decade in Seattle, the focus was always offense; the defense wasn’t exactly an afterthought, but close.

In that regard, Jim Mora is nearly a complete opposite of Mike Holmgren.

Mora was a defensive back at the University of Washington. Defense is his specialty; he brings intensity, tempo, and confidence to a unit that struggled to get off the field last season. In addition, Mora brought with him a very good staff with him to Seattle, replacing most of the defensive coaches from the previous year.

Gus Bradley, although a rookie his in new role as defensive coordinator, was spoken highly of by Monty Kiffin and shares a philosophy similar to that of Mora’s. Dan Quinn, probably capable of being a coordinator in this league, should already be given credit for two undrafted free agents making the football team this season (Derek Walker, Michael Bennett). The front seven have looked spectacular, and a complete 180 degrees difference from last season.

With Mora in town, intensity is back on the defensive side of the ball. And so far, through training camp and preseason, it shows. Fans of the Seahawks can only hope that continues into the regular season.

The preseason is usually meaningless and never a good predictor of the regular season, but Seattle ranked 9th overall in total defense. The team gave up an average of 14.5 points per game. It may not continue through the regular season, but it certainly gives hope and shows a step in the right direction.

And don’t forget the biggest preseason statistic: the Seattle Seahawks led the lead in third-down percentage, allowing opponents to convert only 26% of the time. Defense on third downs has been atrocious in recent years, and drastic improvement will be critical for the team to be successful this season.

To go with a new coaching staff, the Seattle Seahawks also added several pieces to the defense that should pay dividends during the season.

The entire defensive line was swapped, bringing in free agent Colin Cole to play nose tackle and acquiring Cory Redding at left end. Brandon Mebane moves to the under-tackle position, and Patrick Kerney slides over the right side.

In addition to the starting four, Seattle has acquired excellent depth which allows them to work through a solid rotation along the defensive line. Recent draft choices Lawrence Jackson and Red Bryant appear primed for excellent years, and veterans such as Darryl Tapp and Craig Terrill can be productive. And don’t forget about rookies Nick Reed, Michael Bennett, and Derek Walker, who all made the team because of stellar performances in the preseason and training camp.

The Seahawks have been rather small in previous seasons on the defensive line, but this season that shouldn’t be an issue. The average weight of the starting defensive line is nearly 299 pounds. A big, active front four is a perfect recipe for big plays from the linebackers.

Oh, and the Seahawks have a pretty good trio back there.

Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill are Pro Bowl-caliber backers. And in last April’s draft, Seattle selected Aaron Curry fourth overall.

Aaron Curry is a phenomenal athlete and should develop into an absolute terror for opposing offenses. From what I’ve seen, he’ll be able to step right in and make an immediate impact.

If Seattle doesn’t struggle through injuries, the defense should be greatly improved. Last season, Kerney, Tatupu, Hill, and several others all struggled through injuries. The injuries helped Seattle build depth, but all of the starters are back now and look ready to contribute.

Injuries, a new coaching staff, and an overhauled defense are just a few reasons why Seattle’s defense will be a top-15 unit in the National Football League this season.