March 20, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll answers questions from reporters during the annual NFL meetings at the Arizona Biltmore. Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve been getting an absolute ton of questions from readers now that the draft is over. Since most of the questions are similar, I figured the best thing to do would be to simply answer them all F.A.Q. style.

This isn’t how I usually do my mailbag feature, but you will just have to deal with it. All of these questions were asked quite a few times in some form or another. I’ve simplified them to make it easier to find the info you’re looking for.

Q: The Seahawks drafted 11 players and signed a large number of undrafted free agents, what does that do to the salary cap situation?

Nothing, or as close to nothing as possible, at least for now.

Only the top 51 salaries count against the salary cap.  None of the rookies, both drafted and undrafted, should have a large enough salary to crack to the top 51.

The only player who’ll come close to the top 51 is 2nd round pick Christine Michael. He might crack into the top 51 , but barely. He’d also knock a player with a very similar salary off the list, the increase will be minimal.

The 62nd pick from a year ago, Green Bay’s Casey Hayward, had a $601,750 cap number in 2012. Michael’s salary will be very similar, since it is set by the rookie wage scale in the current CBA. If Michael knocks Brandon Browner and his $555,000 cap number out of the top 51, the difference would be about $45k. That’s not anything to worry about.

The real impact will be felt when the team cuts the roster back to 53 at the end of training camp. For example, if the team chooses to keep Spencer Ware as a full back at the expense of Michael Robinson, the team will actually save a little over $2 million on the salary cap.

Q: It would seem like the Seahawks are over their 90 player maximum. How is that possible?

Draft picks don’t count toward the roster until they sign their contract. That means that the Seahawks are actually still under the 90 man limit for the time being. Once the rookies start to sign, a few players will have to be let go to make room for them.

The team also isn’t as far over the roster limit as it seemed earlier, even if you count all the draft picks. Of the 17 undrafted free agents the Seahawks were reported to get, only 9 were actually given contracts. The other 8 were invited to the team’s rookie minicap as a tryout. They wont count toward the roster limit unless the team actually offers them a contract.

Q: What goes on during rookie mini-camp?

The players are taught the offensive and defensive schemes. The mini-camp is 100% installation, and almost nothing else.

Keep in mind that these mini-camps are strictly non-contact. It is very difficult for the team to do any teaching of technique, or anything else for that matter, without pads. There also wont be any conditioning work or anything like that going on. Anyone not in great football shape will be shown the door at the end the mini-camp.

The goal of the camp is to get the rookies up to speed as best as possible so that way they are able to participate with the veterans when the full team OTAs begin in a few weeks.

Q: If that’s the case, what about the veteran free agents who were signed?

They’ve all had their playbooks since the day they signed their new contract. They were also picked because of their fit within the schemes the Seahawks run. Plus, these players have all been through this process a few times already. You don’t need to be worried about them. To paraphrase Walter Thurmond, this isn’t their first rodeo.

Q: What is up with the Seahawks selecting two running backs when they already have Lynch and Turbin?

First, I don’t think they selected two running backs. I’m fairly certain they selected one running back and one full back. Spencer Ware is an ideal full back, and I think that’s the role he will play with the Seahawks.

As for “why,” that’s a more complex answer. The primary reason for Ware’s selection is cost. Full back Michael Robinson is entering the final year of his contract and has a bloated contract. Keeping Ware and cutting Robinson would help save some needed cap room to try and sign guys like Earl Thomas, Russell Wilson, and Richard Sherman.

Answering the question about why the team decided to select Christine Michael with it’s first pick would take more room than I have here, so it’s going to have to wait until tomorrow.

What we’re talking about here is the players I would have picked for the Seahawks if I had been the GM. I made these selections at the same time the Seahawks did. No extra days to think things over. No hindsight based on players who were available 3 rounds later. It’s about picking the players as the draft unfolds.

Can you see why I think that shadow drafts are fun? Oh, but that’s not even the best part. The best part is looking back at the shadow draft a year or 2 later, and realizing jsut how bad the draft would have turned out.

Lets just say that I like to think of shadow drafts as my yearly reminder that I’m not an NFL GM, and that no team would ever be dumb enough to hire me as one. My drafts generally end up being pretty bad. 

I posted my shadow draft last year as well. Even after just 1 year it’s obvious just how much of a failure my draft would have been. I’m guessing that’ll be the case again this time around.

Don’t be afraid to laugh at my expense here. That is actually the point of posting this online.

January 19, 2013; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; West running back Christine Michael of Texas A&M

The Seahawks have finally made their first pick in the 2013 draft. It just took until the final pick of the second round to get here. With that pick, Seattle took Christine (pronounced Chris-TIN) Michael, a running back from Texas A&M. Chances are you’re wondering who the hell that is. Allow me to enlighten you.

According to NFL.com, Michael’s strengths include a “low center of gravity” but with a “thickness throughout his frame to take and give out punishment.” He has more speed than one would think when he is able to break open as well. Overall, Michael is a bruiser that will be a nice compliment to Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin. Both Lynch and Turbin are hard to bring down, and Lynch will occasionally level a tackler, but Michael has the ability to straight damage some defenders. Michael is also a good blocker that is able to lead the ball into the second level.

According to CBS Sports, Michael started 2012 rated by some as the “top senior running back in the country.” Attitude issues, however, took him out of the starting role, and the spotlight, which is probably a big reason he was relatively unknown and is yet another “what the what” pick by Pete Carroll and John Schneider.

Michael has had injury issues and missed the ends of both his sophomore and junior year. He broke his right leg in 2010 and the following season he tore his ACL. However, in 13 games he ran for 1,530 yards and 12 touchdowns. If he can check his attitude issues at the door and stay healthy, Michael should have an opportunity to contribute greatly in Seattle.

If Seattle starts utilizing a running back by committee approach it could be a very different dynamic on offense and make them harder to prepare for and defend. Diversity is a killer.

Another thing that I just thought of is whether or not Seattle might consider lining up Michael at full back and getting all three backs (Lynch, Turbin, and Michael) on the field at the same time. This could also give Seattle more flexibility when it comes to dealing with Michael Robinson’s contract.

This pick could also have fantasy implications as it might limit carries by Lynch.

No matter what, I think we should all get #inpcjswetrust trending because I expect a lot more unexpected picks out of Seattle for the rest of the draft.

Dec 23, 2012, Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider looks at the Seahawks bench in between during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Given the Seahawks lofty status of playoff team and being ranked as the 2013 preseason NFL’s best team, it’s  easy to forget where this team stood last year at this time, a week before the draft.  Here we are in mid April again, wondering who the Seahawks may draft starting with the second round after having traded their first round pick to Minnesota for Percy Harvin.  The Seahawks are widely said to have “won” free agency after having gone blow for blow with the San Francisco 49ers in signing big name players.  And the likely answer to the question; “who will the team pick in the second round”?, is a resounding – “Who cares?  Let’s PLAY”!

The team has already improved itself so much that any player they pick up in the draft will be the sprinkles on the frosting of the cake.  In one year the team has gone from just recently having achieved the “respectable” moniker, to “Super Bowl favorite”, and that’s BEFORE the 2013 draft even takes place!  There is really some question as to whether any draft picks will even make the team.  While the draft may seem a bit anti-climactic after the free agency blitz the team just put on, just remember it was exactly a year ago we were almost positive Matt Flynn would be the Hawk’s starting quarterback in 2012.  In other words, with John Schneider and Pete Carroll calling the shots, expect the unexpected.  Expect a player or three who can not only make this team, but who can make this team better.

Just for fun, let’s review a few stories Seahawks fans were reading and hearing about their team exactly one year ago.

- Fans of the Seahawks were being told by football writers that;

- We should take heart in the fact that although the Seahawks started 2011 with a 2-6 record, they finished well with a 5-3 record and matched their 2010 mark of 7-9.

- The Seahawks of 2011 were competitive in all but one of their losses.

- The Seahawks had released their big 2011 free agency catch Robert Gallery.

- Excitement for the “two tight end set” grew with the signing of tight end Kellen Winslow from Tampa Bay.

- The team had released and re-signed Marcus Trufant.

-  The team was happy to have locked up Marshawn Lynch for the next 4 years and Red Bryant for 5 years.

- Breno Giacomini had done such a good job filling in at right tackle for the injured first rounder James Carpenter, he was re-signed and talk began of moving Carpenter to the guard position.

- The names Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Brandon Browner, and Earl Thomas were not yet “household names”, much less the “best secondary in football”.

- Matt Flynn was the “crown jewel” of the Seahawks free agent class.  His position with the team would require him to beat out Tavaris Jackson and whatever rookie quarterback the team may pick up in the 2012 draft.  Consensus was the QB job was Flynn’s to lose.  Nobody, except for a few die hard college football junkies or Wisconsin fans had ever heard of Russell Wilson…

Seahawks fans should understand it’s OK be excited about the 2013 draft, even without a first round pick.  Last year the team picked up a franchise quarterback, a starting linebacker, an excellent backup running back, and a starting offensive lineman converted from defense…all AFTER the first round.

Feb 21, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider speaks at a press conference during the 2013 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday afternoon, I caught part of a John Schneider interview on the radio. (I can’t remember which station, but I’m sure someone will find it for me post a link in the comments). He didn’t say much, but there were two things of note:

1) He jokingly said that the staff was planning on sitting around and watching Percy Harvin highlights on youtube during the first round od the draft. I can actually see them doing this, but I bet that NFL Films would be capable of providing a higher quality video than anything they’d find on youtube.

The Seahawks lack a first round pick, and lack all motivation to trade up for one. Other than fielding a few phone calls from teams trying to do some pre-planning for the late 2/early 3 part of Friday, there isn’t all that much for Schneider and company to do during Thursday’s portion of the draft.

2) Schneider talked a bit about couple of his draft failures. He obviously didn’t name names, but he did offer explanations:

• He compared a player to one he had before, but their hearts weren’t the same
• Taking a player who was productive, but lacked football confidence

It is interesting that both mistakes were misreads of a players mental state, and not poor scouting of their physical abilities. This is one of those aspects that of the scouting process that many fans seem to miss. It’s not all just about what you see on the tape. The interview process is an essential part of finding great NFL players.

I have some ideas about who he might have been referring to, but that speculation will have to wait for later.

I love football.

Actually, the truer statement would be: I love all aspects of football, from the coaches to the actual game, to the players, their back stories, their off season adventures and their charitable interests.

Around this time last year, I wrote an article about John Schneider and his wife and their fund raising event for autism in honor of their son. As a manager at a Seattle area not-for-profit that helps people with disabilities, I was thrilled to see the kind of exposure the Schneiders were able to provide for autism. As the mother of a child with autism, I was moved by their desire to help other families with the significant costs of therapies for autistic children.

I ended the article with the comment that for many of the players and personnel in the league, the game is about more than football. This year, I’d like to shine the light on a few more stories that make the game about “more than football.”

Just last week, offensive lineman John Moffitt launched a clothing and accessory line called Moffitt Merch. While many players have shirts and other merchandise available online, the Moffitt Merch line is special.

Like many football players, John has a Twitter account. In the course of entertaining the 12^th man on Twitter, John met a couple of guys named Ian and Dave. Together the three of them decided that while a Moffitt Merch clothing line would be great, it would be even cooler to give all the money away. The chosen purpose of Moffitt Merch is to raise awareness of and help the needy of Seattle. Thus, all proceeds from Moffitt Merch benefit Seattle’s Union Gospel Mission.

Simple. Brilliant. More than just football.

You can find Moffitt Merch online on Twitter or on their website at www.moffittmerch.com.

Yes, I’ve already ordered my shirt. Because you know Moffitt is my homeboy!

August 27, 2011; Englewood, CO, USA; Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider walks along the sidelines during the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field. The Broncos defeated the Seahawks 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Aside from filling one of the teams biggest offseason needs, the Harvin trade also likely drastically changes the draft strategy for the Seahawks. Before the trade, I thought that the Seahawks were likely to break from their convention and actually trade up in this draft. The team had few needs, and more than enough early and mid-round picks to fill them.

Plus, they had 12 total picks, and there was simply no way 12 rookies were going to make this roster. No matter how out of character it might be, the team needed to use some of that draft capital to make sure they got the “right” guys. Failing to do so is simply a waste of valuable assets.

The Harvin trade definitely changes things. Even though the Seahawks don’t pick until #56, I can no longer see them moving up to get a particular player.

There’s two reasons for the change. Obviously, not having a 1st round pick is a big deal. The team now must now try and find key players with later picks, and high volume drafting is usually the best way to assure that this is possible.

The 2nd reason is simply the lack of “good” picks. Yes, the Seahawks do still have 10 draft picks, but they also have the the least amount of draft capital of any team in the NFL. Let me explain that. Remember that draft pick value chart? well if you add up the value of all the picks that each team has, the Seahawks come in at #32.

That’s because that Seattle now only has 2 picks in the top 100. Most of their picks are in rounds 5, 6 and 7. Those picks aren’t worth much unfortunately.

Those picks also tend to be high risk, high reward, picks under John Schneider. Many have worked out (Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, even JR Sweezy so far), while others haven’t faired as well (Jameson Konz, Pep Levingston, and Mark Legree). That is simply the nature of late round picks.

Before the trade, the Seahawks had the luxury of skipping the majority of this high-risk game for a year. The had the ability to move around in top half of the draft and get players they knew were going to be impact players; removing the risk, but keeping the reward.

Now, that’s no longer possible. The Seahawks about back to trying to play the late round checkers again, and to make that work, you simply have to have a lot of picks.

Luckily for the Seahawks, John Schneider is pretty darn good at playing this particular game.

Jan 6, 2013; Landover, MD, USA; Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Alan Branch (99) celebrates pressuring Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III (10) during the second half of the NFC Wild Card playoff game at FedEx Field. The Seahawks won 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

With free agency winding down, especially for the Seahawks I would imagine, it seems about time to take stock of where Seattle sits heading into the draft. It’s no secret the Seahawks are a good team, no amount of east-coast bias could blind the football world to that fact. The Seahawks may well be a great team, in fact I have them in the top five as we stand at this moment. As a result, this article is going to be much shorter than it might have been in previous years. Today what I’m going to examine is remaining areas of concern for the 2013 Seahawks. We are a couple of draft picks and perhaps a few bargain bin free agents from a final roster at the moment and with any luck these shockingly few holes will be filled come the regular season. The following is an account of what’s missing/a shopping list for this front office:

#1: A starting quality DT to pair with Brandon Mebane

This need might be satisfied in a fairly anti-climactic manner with the return of Alan Branch but that is no guarantee. Branch is only 28, he’s available, and he’s probably relatively cheap. None of that is anything to sneeze at. Additionally he has started 31 of 32 games for the Seahawks and provided four sacks and solid run stuffing during that time. This is also noteworthy. Contrarily Branch only had one sack and one tackle for loss last season compared to three and five in 2011. Branch is a known quantity but he’s far from exciting and most definitely upgrade-able  I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle brought back Branch but I also think there’s a good chance they draft a DT with one of their first two picks in the draft. These scenarios are far from mutually exclusive as you can never have too many quality defensive linemen. It’s important not to forget about Jaye Howard who failed to make an impact last year but was a fairly well regarded prospect coming into the draft and could always surprise.

#2: A starting quality OLB to go with Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright

This is the second biggest hole I see on the Seahawks right now and I’m not entirely sure there isn’t a viable candidate on the roster at this moment. That says a great deal about this team. Malcom Smith appears to have some talent and impressed me in his brief 3 game stint as a starter last year. Am I comfortable going in to the season with him as the starter though? Not without a serious back up plan. If the Seahawks insist on being boring I’m sure they could bring back Leroy Hill although he is far from the explosive talent he once was. My best guess is Seattle drafts an OLB in either the 2^nd or 3^rd round has him battle Smith for the job, with Smith likely returning to his role as a backup.

#3: A slot cornerback

Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner’s success as a corner tandem is well documented but in the today’s pass happy NFL you need three quality corners on defense. Trufant was fairly underwhelming last year and seems unlikely to be brought back in 2013. Walter Thurmond III is probably capable of playing this role but he simply cannot be counted on to stay healthy. Jeremy Lane is also a player who conceivably could be the guy for this spot but I see him as more of a backup on the outside with his size and lack of elite quickness.  There are question marks surrounding both internal options and a couple interesting guys floating around in free agency (ie. Charles Woodson, Adam Jones, Tracy Porter) but they are probably cost prohibitive for a team that has been spending a surprising amount of money lately. The most likely scenario is Seattle tries to see if one of their two guys can stick as the third corner and takes a chance on someone later in the draft as well, as they are wont to do.

#4: A starting right tackle

This is where the shopping list enters pipe dream territory. Breno Giacomini is almost certainly the starting RT for the Seahawks in 2013. The problem is he’s not very good. He’s probably not the worst starting RT in the league but his inconsistency and stupid penalties are cringe inducing at times. There are some quality OT’s available in free agency at the moment who would represent a significant upgrade (Sebastian Vollmer and Andre Smith jump to mind) but they remain firmly outside Seattle’s price range barring any major cap casualties. Quality offensive tackles don’t last long in the draft so I doubt an immediate starter can be found late in the second round, but you never know. Unfortunately I think Giacomini is the Seahawks’ only realistic option at the moment.

Lists of five are much more aesthetically pleasing than lists of four but I really can’t think of anything else the Seahawks truly need. Quarterback? Check. Runningback? Check. Wide Receiver? Pretty impressive with the addition of Harvin. Tight End? Fine presuming Miller is sticking around, which he seems to be. Even the offensive line is has two Pro Bowlers and quite a few options at guard with upside. The Seahawks have also loaded up on pass rushers and they already had a stacked secondary so I really don’t know what else they would desperately desire. Quality depth is a must and that’s largely what this draft class is expected to provide, but by and large the Seahawks are set. Being a Seattle Seahawks fan at the moment feels like being a spoiled child who can’t even think of what he wants for Christmas because he has everything. Everything can always go wrong at the drop of a hat (and in my experience as a sports fan it does 85-90% of the time) but we are looking at a pretty strong squad heading into the 2013 draft. It’s a good thing I wrote this article now because knowing how well this front office drafts there might be nothing to say on this topic come April 28^th.

This could be a common occurrence with the Seahawks this season, maybe more so than with other teams, if NFL owners vote in a new “head lowering” penalty for running backs .  Pete Carroll has already said the Seahawks are going to remain a “run first” offense.  He may want to change his mind on that one after the first few games if things go the way I’m thinking they could go with this new running back “head lowering” rule.  If you haven’t heard, Roger Goodell proposed a new rule in which running backs will be flagged if they lower their head to use the crown of the helmet like a battering ram.  This essentially means running backs will have to take on hits standing up or risk a penalty.

I was listening to the “Mike & Mike” show this morning on the way in to work, and they had former Dallas Cowboys Great Emmett Smith on the show to give his “NFL Hall of Fame running back” perspective on the new rule.  He brashly said it will make it impossible to play the position of running back.  He claimed there is no way a runner who sees he’s about to have a collision is NOT going to instinctively lower his helmet and his whole body to protect himself.  Smith added, when you are punished for hitting tacklers with your helmet the end result is you’re going to see a lot of guys just step out of bounds rather than try to get more yards.  He thinks it will eventually turn the NFL in to something that resembles “touch football”.   Will this still be “football”?  I say “no”.  Running backs will more resemble quarterbacks at the end of a play, taking a slide to avoid a stand-up hit or meekly squirting out of bounds before the big hits we all know and love.

Now, to be fair, an NFL team of experts, coaches, & former players looked at all the film from last year and only found five instances of this helmet lowering that would have been called under the new rule.  So, while there might be a lot of latitude a referee can give backs on this rule, or there might not be.  The panel admitted it could be very difficult for a referee to fairly call this kind of thing in the heat of a game.  This rule is made for inconsistency in how it’s called, and could be affected by the referee’s angle to the play, his view of the play through other players, the weather, how the other player reacts, and a million other variables.  If NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell decides to push this rule hard, it could really put a crimp on the running styles of the hard-nosed, punishing running backs like Lynch.  A quick review of some “Beast Mode” highlights reveals Lynch does often use his helmet and shoulders and a healthy forward lean to blast people out of his way.  Is this going to make him a magnate for yellow flags?  How could it not?  You could even say Lynch is the kind of runner this rule is designed to punish…errrr…protect.  If there is one rule they could have come up with (other than making the QB scramble illegal) that could put the brakes on a potential Seahawks championship season, this is it!

For other teams with finesse style runners this probably wouldn’t be an issue.  Teams with backs that run in a style more like Walter Payton, Eric Dickerson, or Barry Sanders will get a break because that style runner very rarely takes on a defensive back.  Teams with backs like Earl Campbell, Jerome Bettis, and yes, Marshawn Lynch could potentially lose some important plays, first downs, or critical scores.  Remember the Seahawks were a HALF GAME away from winning the NFC West title.  One bad call can make that difference.  This WILL affect coaching strategies.  Worse case; I think it’s possible that coaches will get tired of all the laundry thrown at their running backs and probably will move away from the running game as an important force in their offenses.  The NFL will evolve into something like the Canadian Football League, where passing becomes the dominant type of play.  That will be too bad.  I think it will wreck the game as it has come to be known and loved.  The diversity of schemes that combine running and passing is what makes the NFL interesting to watch.

The next question is; will the fans revolt?  Will the NFL be on a path to a slow death because fans will slowly find other things to do than watch a league full of guys running around trying to avoid getting hit?  Will the game become something so foreign to our senses that it becomes a laughing stock?  A quick look at the controversy created by the “defenseless receiver” rule should give guidance here.  There were a lot of cases where a legitimate hit was flagged and great defensive plays called penalties.  The hit Cam Chancellor put on 49ers tight end Vernon Davis comes to mind…  That was a great, legal (as it turns out) hit that should have been called an incompletion and brought on the 49ers punting team  if memory serve me.  The penalty turned it into a 1^st and 10 for San Fran.  The Hawks ended up losing that game by a touchdown.  If victories are seen as not legitimately won, the loss of fan interest could put a serious dent in the NFL’s credibility and viewership.  But then the NFL has survived and thrived amid controversial calls for decades, so maybe it’s nothing to worry about.

Last but not least, will this rule, if passed, affect how Pete Carroll and John Schneider evaluate running backs in the upcoming draft?  Might they hedge their bets that sending Marshawn Lynch to ballet school won’t turn him into a finesse  runner and go after one in the draft?  It seems advisable to have a “change-up” back anyway, but maybe this puts a little more urgency into that kind of pick.  I’m thinking a running back with lots of speed and not a lot of brawn, and the ability to avoid pursuit may be high on more than a few teams draft boards.

In the end it looks like the NFL is changing so as not to appear unconcerned, and to avoid the avalanche of lawsuits that will surely materialize if they don’t “do something” now that they know there is a serious problem.  Here are some things about this rule to consider moving forward:  Will it change the game so much that they destroy the game?  If they do nothing can the game survive anyway?  Will the running back become extinct?  Will they have to make more changes to keep the game interesting?  Who knows?  Finding the answers to these questions may become more interesting to watch than the actual games.  One other thing Emmett Smith said is that people who haven’t played running back at a professional level have no idea what they’re talking about.  Sorry Emmett, but THAT’S WHAT WE DO HERE!

And so, I present to you John Schneider’s strategy for being awesome on draft day, while still managing to get every draft pundit to think he doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Round 1

Strategy: Trade down at least once, then draft a player that has Pro Bowl potential but that every draft pundit will think should have gone in round two or three. Consider playing a drinking game in which everyone drinks whenever a pundit says the team didn’t get “value,” but decides otherwise because alcohol poisoning is serious business.

Examples: DE Bruce Irvin, OG James Carpenter.

Alternative: Skip the “round 2/3″ drama and just draft franchise cornerstones like Russell Okung and Earl Thomas.

Round 2

Strategy: Continue to anger draft pundits by picking players “too early.” Make sure they have Pro Bowl potential. Sit back and laugh at the silly comments made by said draft pundits.

Examples: WR Golden Tate, MLB Bobby Wagner.

Alternative: None yet.

Round 3

Strategy: Throw the pundits a bone and draft a player they like. Just make sure that player never develops into anything special so the draft pundits will still look stupid after the fact anyways. This pick can also be traded  since any player that is taken under this plan is replaceable anyway.

Examples: OG John Moffitt.

Alternative: Troll the entire NFL by taking a franchise QB well after any should be available. Watch Mel Kiper’s head explode.

Round 4

Strategy: Take a flyer on a high potential player that will never work out and will be off the roster before their second season begins. The only way to keep a reputation for not understanding the draft “process” is if you miss once in a while. This is a good spot to do so.

Examples: LB EJ Wilson, WR Kris Durham.

Alternative: Draft a solid roll player with high potential (Walter Thurmond, Robert Turbin). Not all 4th round picks can be busts, or the pundits will catch on to the the plan.

Round 5

Strategy: Draft an All-Pro cornerback or a Pro Bowl safety that the rest of the NFL thought wasn’t good enough. Sit there, smile, and revel in your own brilliance.

Examples: CB Richard Sherman, SS Kam Chancellor.

Alternative: If you  haven’t drafted your fourth round bust yet, get it in now (Mark Legree, Korey Toomer).

Round 6

Strategy: Follow up the fifth round success by drafting more solid players who’ll provide depth on the team. There is no concern about messing with the draft pundits anymore, since most have never heard of any of the players in this portion of the draft.

Examples: Byron Maxwell, Jeremy Lane.

Alternative: none.

Round 7

Strategy: Continue to find high-ceiling players capable of helping the team in the sort-term as well as the long-term.

Examples: Greg Scruggs, Malcolm Smith, Dexter Davis.

Alternative: If the draft pundits haven’t been messed with enough to this point, draft a player with the intention of moving them to a position that they’ve never played before. Make sure that players have a high potential at their new position (JR Sweezy).

And there you have it. John Schneider’s masterful plan has been revealed for the entire world to see. Doesn’t this picture look like someone who’s had their secrets exposed?

Feb 21, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider speaks at a press conference during the 2013 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Nov 11, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Detroit Lions defensive end Cliff Avril (92) sacks Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder (7) in the first quarter at the Metrodome. The Vikings win 34-24. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle Seahawks General Manger John Schneider went on the John Clayton Show, which airs on 710 ESPN Seattle every Saturday morning, and talked about the role Cliff Avril would play for Seattle. A link can be found at the bottom of the article to the interview.

Schneider mentioned in the interview that Seattle plans to have Avril play the LEO position that Clemons played before his injury and weak-side (WILL) linebacker which K.J. Wright currently fills.

The comment about Avril playing the WILL Linebacker position got me to thinking. How can a 6’4”, 260 pound defensive end play linebacker in a 4-3 defensive system? The player that comes to mind is former Seattle Seahawks linebacker Julian Peterson.

Julian Peterson first played in Seattle during the 2006 season after spending six years with the San Francisco 49ers. Peterson was given a seven-year deal worth $54 million. Peterson was not your typical 4-3 linebacker. His job was to get in the backfield and sack the opposing quarterback as many times as possible. Peterson filled this role nicely with Seattle. Over three years he managed to collect 24.5 sacks. Keep in mind that Peterson was not put in the position of defensive end. He played strictly the strong-side/outside linebacker position. While Avril would be coming from the opposite side that Peterson filled and taking over for K.J. Wright it could allow Wright to slide over to the other side of the field.

I believe Seattle will put Avril in this role in specific passing downs. I do not believe he will be a three down linebacker as Peterson was. He struggled against the run in Detroit.  Avril stands at 6’3, 260 pounds and ran a 4.59 so the explosiveness to come off the edge exists. Avril playing outside linebacker also gives other pass rushers such as Bennett, Clemons, and Irvin the opportunity to all play at the same time.

If you put the numbers in perspective, Avril has been a far more productive player than Peterson was. Keep in mind, though, that Avril had a great supporting cast around him playing in Detroit. Avril has played a total of 73 games during a five year career while collecting 39.5 sacks (.54 sacks per game). Peterson during an 11 year career played 158 games and collected 51.5 sacks (.32 sacks per game). Peterson’s play did take a deep decline after leaving Seattle via trade to Detroit, which affected his sack numbers. However, if you take Avril’s sack numbers and average it out per year, that is at least eight sacks per year and I believe playing for one of the league’s best defenses he can increase those numbers in Seattle.

No one can guess how Avril will truly be used and if the WILL linebacker position will work out but I’m certain Carroll will find a spot for him to cause pure mayhem on opposing quarterbacks.

Link To John Clayton’s and John Schneider’s interview.

Instead Seahawks fans were introduced to Percy Harvin, who was acquired via trade with the Vikings yesterday. The press conference was cool and everything, but it lacked the sizzle of the day before when found out about the trade.

I think Danny O’neil of the Seattle Times had the right idea:

Today’s inactivity was completely expected though. That’s been the standard procedure for the Seahawks under John Schneider. They have, for the most part, avoided the all the craziness of the first few days of free agency.

Only once, when they had an absolute ton of cap space following the uncapped year when they shed all those big contracts, did the Seahawks jump in and sign some big name players. That was before the 2011 season, and brought Sydney Rice and Zach Miller to Seattle.

Seattle lacks the cap room they had that year; hence the inactivity today. Don’t worry though, I’m sure they’ll sign someone who most fans have never heard of at some point next week. That’ll be fun, right?

Percy Harvin – Is only 24, runs a 40 in 4.3 seconds, does a great job of getting yards after catch and is an accomplished kickoff return runner.

Percy Harvin – misses a lot of practices, unfortunately suffers from recurring migraines and has already exhibited a tendency to be a bit of diva.

So what does this mean for the Seahawks?

It means that if he passes his physical, Harvin will be a speedy receiver with good hands, excellent running instincts and a desire for the ball. It also means that Harvin may continue to miss practices due to his migraine issues and on a team with an “always compete” team mentality, missing practices means Harvin may not successfully compete for as much starting time as he would like.

Going up against Rice, Baldwin and Tate, who have all shown exceptional growth and stability through the 2012 season, Harvin may find himself having to work harder than he has before to get playing time.

While I’m okay with the picks we’ve given for Harvin, I’m not “all in” this trade. But I’m open to the possibilities of the Hawks making it work. Some keys to success for Harvin with the Seahawks will include:

• Adapting to the always compete mode (Doug Baldwin is embracing the opportunity to compete)
• Limiting kick return opportunities (let someone else be cannon fodder, although if rumors of trading Leon Washington are true, hopefully Pete and John plan on picking someone up in the draft)
• Committing to as many practices/mini camps as possible, both for physical conditioning and developing relationships with his QB and fellow receivers
• Understanding that great physical talent still requires considerable practice and application. Ask Golden Tate.
• Appreciating the caliber of players he’ll be sharing a locker room with (Russell Wilson has extra meetings with his receivers and oline… for a reason)

Ultimately, Pete and John are pretty smart guys. I’m pretty confident that they will limit the guaranteed money to Harvin and build in lots of incentives for him to reach for. And I hope he does rise to the occasion. He really needs to appreciate this opportunity for what it is.

Harvin could be great. But he’s not great yet.

January 24, 2013; Honolulu, HI, USA; NFC free safety Earl Thomas of the Seattle Seahawks (29) runs with the ball during practice for the 2013 Pro Bowl at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

With the upcoming draft dominating the NFL news landscape in recent weeks I started thinking over the last few Seahawks draft classes. On Monday I looked at John Schneider’s and Pete Carroll’s preferences and today I will examine the impact their draft picks have had over the last three years. Generally, I consider it too early to judge the quality of these drafts in their entirety. I do think it is fair to look at the production accumulated by unit for the classes under this regime and demonstrate the early impact they have had for the Seahawks. My initial assumption was that the draft classes of 2010-2012 have been very productive for Seattle and that proved to be entirely correct.

Let’s start with the very successful 2012 class:

Offense

In a defense-heavy draft these numbers were accumulated by, with the exception of J.R Sweezy’s playing time, Russell Wilson and Robert Turbin, both of whom were major contributors this year. Given the general success of Wilson’s rookie year, the number that really stands out here is the 843 rushing yards provided by these rookies. Those yards served as quite the compliment to Marshawn Lynch’s 1,590 yards as the feature back. The raw production is very good and probably trending upward for both players in the future.

Defense

Despite the fact the Seahawks drafted seven defensive players in 2012 almost all of the defensive production comes from Bobby Wagner. That being said, the Seahawks’ defensive rookies proved valuable in situational roles. Most notably Bruce Irvin and Greg Scruggs rushing the passer and getting 10 combined sacks. Also of note were performances by rookies asked to move up the depth chart (e.g. Jeremy Lane starting during Brandon Browner’s four game suspension). These numbers are already respectable and figure to improve, especially if Bruce Irvin continues to grow as a player.

In the 2011 draft class, we see a group of players that have contributed a great deal, especially on defense.

Offense

These measures of production don’t really include offensive line play and as a result this draft class looks a great deal worse than it is. Even so, the Seahawks’ top two picks in this draft have only combined for 31 of a possible 64 starts on the offensive line, which is far from ideal. James Carpenter has a chance to have a future as a starter in Seattle for years to come if he can stay healthy. John Moffit seems more likely to only provide depth on the line. The only other offensive player from this class, Kris Durham, has already moved on.

Defense

The 2011 draft class was a gold mine in terms of defensive talent. Headlined by CB Richard Sherman and OLB K.J Wright the 2011 draftees have more than held their own in the NFL thus far. Wright and Sherman are both quality starters and Byron Maxwell and Malcolm Smith are excellent depth players who have made plays when called upon. Nothing to complain about here.

Lastly, let’s examine the production the Seahawks have gotten from Schneider’s and Carroll’s 2010 inaugural draft class.

Offense

Russell Okung and Golden Tate are both excellent picks and they make up most of the numbers seen here. Anthony McCoy has done more than most 6^th round picks and Jameson Konz unfortunately never really delivered on his promise. It says something about the drafting acumen of Seattle’s front office when we actively contemplate 7^th round draft picks that never amount to anything.

Defense

These totals are compiled primarily by the safety duo of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor with contributions from Walter Thurmond III and Dexter Davis.

In the overall analysis there are a lot of numbers to chew on. Before I go further I’d like to point out the obvious flaws in them.

Firstly, the contributions of offensive lineman are downplayed because their on-field production is not quantified by the statistics I have used. This is especially unfortunate given the Seahawks have spent two of their last four first round picks on offensive linemen. Although their inclusion in terms of games and games started is significant, looking at these production charts does underplay the importance of players like Russell Okung or James Carpenter.

Secondly, although one could argue that in a way the number of games started by each draft class is the best way to measure their contribution to the franchise, it can be problematic because it prizes quantity over quality. Just because a player started or played in a game doesn’t mean they played well. On the other hand, if the player is terrible he is unlikely to play or start so there is some implication of effectiveness just by appearing in games consistently.

Lastly, by looking at draft picks only the contributions of undrafted free agent gems like Doug Baldwin and Brandon Browner are excluded.

Ultimately, I think the main idea to take from this is that Seattle’s front office has done a good job in selecting players that have provided significant, tangible, and quantifiable production for this franchise. The Seahawks roster has been turned over and completely remade during the Pete Carroll era and the primary vehicle for this overhaul has been the draft. In 2010, 7.7% of the starts made by Seahawks players were from draft picks of the current front office. In 2011 that number climbed to 28.4%, and last year is was 42.6%. More than player statistics, those numbers capture the impact of the last three draft classes. If John Schneider and Pete Carroll continue to have excellent drafts that number will continue growing. Give this duo another three years and we will be looking at a truly homegrown squad, and by and large those are the type of teams that win championships.

If you’ve read any of my notes here on 12^th Man Rising, you’ll know that I approach football from a passion perspective. I’m in love with the game of football and the Seahawks in particular. I’m not even close to being in the statistical wizard category with my fellow writers. (Although I love reading their stuff!)

But I read this article yesterday and I found it intriguing, especially as we reach the end of the regular season and the pundits are struggling to categorize Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. So let me take this statistical approach and help the pundits look back at what they may have missed with a certain Mr. Russell Wilson.

The article was about Andrew Luck, RG2 and other QBs in their class. The updated Lewin Career Forcast v2.0 lays out a statistical formula for evaluation based on the following criteria:

• Career college games started, with a minimum of 20 and a maximum of 48.
• Career completion rate; however, this is now a logrithmic variable. As a quarterback’s completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger. As a result, the bonus for exceedingly accurate quarterbacks such as Tim Couch and Brian Brohm is smaller than the penalty for inaccurate quarterbacks such as Kyle Boller and Tarvaris Jackson.
• Difference between the quarterback’s BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don’t exactly conform to the “ideal quarterback size.”
• For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. (For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.)
• A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don’t play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.
• Run-pass ratio in the quarterback’s final college season, with a maximum of 0.5.
• Total rushing yards in the quarterback’s final college season, with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 600.

“The biggest question about LCF continues to be the importance of games started. This is still the most important variable in the equation. Any quarterback projection system based on past performance is going to highly value collegiate games started. From 1990 to 2005, it was far and away the most important variable in determining the success of highly-drafted quarterbacks. However, there are questions about whether the rise of the spread offense is leading to number of quarterbacks who come into the NFL with a lot of collegiate experience yet still unprepared for the NFL-style game. Other quarterbacks have come into the NFL with less experience and done very well. The best example of this would be Cam Newton, who seems like the kind of guy who is built to break this system. He started only one year of Division I ball and looked like a huge risk, then put together one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history. Aaron Rodgers is another player who was underrated by the system; given the success of Newton and Rodgers, perhaps we need to consider adding junior college experience to the variable for collegiate games started.”

“It’s important to understand that LCF is meant to be a tool used alongside the scouting reports, not instead of the scouting reports. What matters is not which quarterback is ahead of which other quarterback by 100 points. Instead, what’s important is who has an overall good or bad projection. Scouts still come first and foremost, but this method is valuable as a crosscheck device and should be part of the conversation about quarterback draft prospects.

With that in mind, Here are the projections for this year’s quarterbacks. These numbers represent an estimate for passing DYAR in years 3-5 of a player’s career. The top prospects will be above 1,200 DYAR, and we should avoid quarterbacks below zero. Let’s start with the top two guys, two of the highest-rated quarterbacks in LCF history who will also be the first two picks in the 2012 NFL Draft.”

Robert Griffin, Baylor: 2,530 DYAR Important stats: 40 games started, 67.0% completion rate, senior passer rating rose 45.3 points, 161 carries for 644 yards.

Andrew Luck, Stanford: 1,749 DYAR Important stats: 37 games started, 66.4% completion rate, senior passer rating dropped -0.5 points, 47 carries for 150 yards.

The article goes on to rate other QB’s in the draft:

Nick Foles, Arizona: 1,391 DYAR Important stats: 33 games started, 66.9% completion rate, 43 carries for -103 yards.

Kirk Cousins, Michigan State: 1,362 DYAR Important stats: 38 games started, 64.6% completion rate.

Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State: 1,011 DYAR Important stats: 25 games started, 69.5% completion rate, 26.8 BMI

Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M: 730 DYAR Important stats: 19 games started, 62.3% completion rate, 55 carries for 296 yards.

Brock Osweiler, Arizona State: 248 DYAR Important stats: 14 games started, 60.3% completion rate.

And then… the Asterisk. Russell Wilson:

The Asterisk

Russell Wilson, Wisconsin: 2,650 DYAR Important stats: 48 games started, 60.7% completion rate, senior passer rating rose 64.1 points.

And here is the narrative that goes with this rating:

“I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the ridiculous projection that the Lewin Career Forecast spits out for Russell Wilson. Yes, that projection is even higher than the one for Robert Griffin. No, it doesn’t particularly mean that Wilson is a sleeper prospect. There are a few things going on here that the LCF is just not designed to account for.

First and foremost, the change in Wilson’s passer rating between his junior and senior years is insane. Remember that earlier I noted that Griffin had a larger senior year passer rating increase than any quarterback in our data set? Well, Wilson’s senior year passer rating increase is 40 percent larger than Griffin’s. But does it matter when the quarterback is playing in a completely different offense for a completely different school in his last year of college eligibility? At Wisconsin, Wilson got to pick apart defenses that were concentrating on stopping Montee Ball. At North Carolina State, I doubt opponents were quaking in their boots at the thought of Mustafa Greene and Dean Haynes. It goes without saying that there isn’t another quarterback in the LCF data set who transferred between his junior and senior years.

There’s also the issue of height, another data point where there’s nobody in our data set that can be compared to Wilson. At first, it seems strange that LCF doesn’t include a variable to discount short quarterbacks, but when you look at the data set that went into creating LCF the reasons are pretty clear. There’s no penalty for being 5-foot-11, like Wilson is, because there are no quarterbacks in the data set who are shorter than 6-foot-0. There’s no penalty for being only 6-foot-0 because the two quarterbacks who are 6-foot-0 are Drew Brees and Michael Vick.

Quarterbacks who are Wilson’s height simply don’t get drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, period. The FO master database only includes three quarterbacks who are below six feet tall: Seneca Wallace, Joe Hamilton, and Flutie. That’s a fourth-round pick, a seventh-round pick, and an 11th round pick from 25 years ago. Even if we go all the way back to 1991, the only quarterbacks taken in the first six rounds at 6-foot-0 or shorter were Vick, Brees, Wallace, Joe Germaine (fourth round, 1999), and Troy Smith (fifth round, 2007).

Wilson too will probably be drafted on the third day of the draft, round four or later, which would render his absurdly high LCF moot.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 12 Mar 2012”

I can appreciate that the writer Aaron Schatz didn’t quite know what to make of Russell Wilson. I mean who has a senior year passer rating increase of 64 points? But when we look through the lens of the 2012 Season, we see Russell getting drafted higher than the projected fourth round or later, winning the starting job in training camp and making statistically improbable improvements throughout the 2012 NFL season. Now, on the cusp of week 17, he’s actually being mentioned in the same breath as Luck and RG3 as the potential rookie of the year.

The key word here is “potential” and I submit to you that Russell had that potential all along. Unfortunately, his potential came with an asterisk. Fortunately for the Seahawks and the 12thman, Pete and John ignored the asterisk at looked at the potential.