Jan 6, 2013; Landover, MD, USA; Seattle Seahawks free safety Earl Thomas (29) returns an interception intended for Washington Redskins wide receiver Pierre Garcon (88) during the second quarter of the NFC Wild Card playoff game against the at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

In what Chris Berman keeps insisting on calling “the best weekend in pro football” (to be fair it’s been pretty damn good so far) the Seahawks make the long trek out to Atlanta to face the number one seeded Falcons. The Falcons are a formidable foe, particularly at home, and despite the love the Seahawks are getting in the national media (something that I find so foreign that it makes me uncomfortable) this is an extraordinarily difficult test. After winning their first road playoff game in decades last week it seems almost greedy to hope for another road victory but as this team has evolved so have the expectations. The idea of the Seahawks going into Atlanta and winning a playoff game would have seemed virtually impossible halfway through this year and now we are at a point where it’s what many prognosticators are expecting. Whatever the result, the battle of the birds figures to be a close, hard fought contest. Let’s take a look at some of the big time matchups.

Matchup #1: Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner vs. Roddy White and Julio Jones

This has been the most talked about matchup all week and for good reason. 12 feet and 4 inches and 421 pounds worth of Pro Bowl receivers figure to do battle with 12 feet 7 inches and 416 pounds worth of Pro Bowl cornerbacks (Sherman hasn’t technically made a Pro Bowl appearance but his worthiness is obvious) in a physical battle for the ages. White and Jones combined for 17 TD’s in 2012 while the Seattle CB duo had 11 INT’s, even with Browner missing four games. The Falcons receivers have been extraordinarily productive this year but they haven’t faced a challenge like the one Seattle presents yet this year. This is a classic unstoppable force- immovable object situation with major repercussions in the game. With the Seahawks down Chris Clemons the pass rush for Seattle won’t be the same and there will be even more pressure on the dynamic Sherman-Browner pairing. You quite simply can’t shut out White and Jones but look for the Seahawks to do as good a job as humanly possible behind the efforts of their elite corners.

Matchup #2: Russell Okung vs. John Abraham

Tomorrow the Seahawks’ Pro Bowl LT faces an intriguing test in John Abraham. Abraham has being waging a surprisingly successful war against Father Time, remaining an effective pass rusher into his age 34 season. The Falcons have done a good job limiting Abraham’s snaps to keep him fresh but you can count on seeing Abraham on every third down. Okung has been excellent this year but Abraham will have the advantage of home field which has been significant for him this year (7 sacks of his 10 this year have come at home). Abraham is tiny compared to Okung (6-4 256) and as a result the Seahawks should look to run at him, behind Okung, whenever possible in this game. Additionally Abraham is dealing with an ankle injury is questionable for this game (although you’d have to think he’s going to play). There is a chance that could sap his effectiveness rushing the passer, although I think he remains a significant challenge for Seattle’s LT, who has struggled with smaller pass rushers, like Sam Acho, at times this year. Look for Okung to contain Abraham even if he can’t erase him completely in this one.

Matchup #3: Earl Thomas vs. Matt Ryan

Matty Ice has a questionable playoff resume (0-3 with a 71.2 Passer Rating) but as much of a big deal as the media likes to make it, this is a sample size of three games we are talking about. Ryan is a very good quarterback and he’s even better at home. The Falcons have elite playmakers but for any passing offense to work you need the right facilitator and Ryan is that guy for Atlanta. He was an early MVP candidate and although his pace slowed as the season wore on he set career highs in yards (4719), TD’s (32), and Passer Rating (99.1). One of the things that makes Ryan successful is his ability to go deep and that’s where Earl Thomas comes in. The smallest and fastest member of the Legion of Boom is the man who really makes the Seahawks pass coverage work downfield. Thomas’s unbelievable range can help compensate for any mistakes his fellows make and he’s dangerous if he can get the ball in his hands as he demonstrated in week 15 against Buffalo. Roddy White and Julio Jones have the straight line speed to get behind Seattle’s corners and that’s where Thomas steps in. Thomas’s All-Pro nod was well deserved this year and we’ll have to see if he can continue to earn it by helping to shut down Matt Ryan’s aerial assault.

This is a winnable game for Seattle, but only because the Seahawks have proven they are capable of virtually anything over the last six weeks. The Falcons aren’t the pushovers/choke artists they are being painted as and I would warn against assuming the “hot team”, in this case the Seahawks, rolls over the team who took a week off. It’s a convenient narrative but it’s not true at least as often as it is. This will be a good game, a tough game, and an entertaining game. Beyond that one can only hope the Seahawks play their best football and have the favor of the football gods.

Luckily, I don’t think it matters for this week.

Matt Ryan was only sacked 27 times this year. Thats among the best in the league. While you might think that means he has a good offensive line (he does), that’s only part of the story here.

The other half is that Ryan gets the ball out very fast. He averages only 2.67 seconds from the snap until the ball is out of his hands. That too is among the best in the league. Add in that Ryan likes to go deep with the ball occasionally (11.1% of his passes), and you’ll realize that the other 88.9% of his passes are even faster than that number.

Put those together and you see the problem. Good offensive line + Quick throws = very difficult to sack.

Unfortunately, that’s not the only problem. The Seahawks are have struggled to get to the QB over the past 6 weeks, and are now very short on pass rushers having lost both Jason Jones and Chris Clemons.

When you look at all of it that way, It would suggest that the Seahawks would be best served to regularly drop extra players into coverage. Rushing 3 (Irvin, McDonald, and Scruggs) on obvious passing downs and covering with 8 defenders (vs a max of 5 players out in patterns) in the secondary.

Looking at Ryan’s stats when he is under pressure also suggests that this strategy might be the best one. His completion % when under pressure is 5th best in the league, even when he is under pressure (which isn’t very often) he’s among the league leaders in not getting sacked. Only 13.9% of the times he’s under pressure do opposing defenses actually get him to the turf.

Ultimately what that says to me is that putting a ton of effort and energy into trying to get to Matt Ryan doesn’t seem like a smart game plan for this game. Why blitz and create holes in your coverage if it is unlikely to get to QB.

Instead, I believe the Seahawks are better off playing the numbers game in the secondary. Luckily, they have the players to make that game plan work.

Nov 4, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons defensive end Ray Edwards (93) salutes the crowd before the game against the Dallas Cowboys at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Cowboys 19-13. Mandatory Credit: Josh D. Weiss-USA TODAY Sports

One of the biggest topics surrounding the Seahawks this week is the how the team will be affected by the loss of star pass rusher Chris Clemons. Although there is a great deal of venom to be spewed on the topic of FedEx field’s substandard conditions, for me it just is what it is. Injuries happen, and truth be told the Seahawks have been remarkable healthy this year and have very little to complain about in that regard. Clemons is the first major contributor (I guess you could make an argument for Jason Jones but I think it would be a stretch) the Seahawks have lost to injury this year. A good team, a team in the last final eight vying for the Super Bowl, needs to have the depth to overcome the loss of a single player. Now one could argue that Clemons is a particularly indispensable player for Seattle because defensive end is not one of their areas of depth, but he is one player nonetheless.

The obvious option for filling the Clemons hole is putting in rookie Bruce Irvin, and that’s exactly what the Seahawks are going to do. Irvin will slot in at Clemons’s spot at Leo with question marks about his ability to hold up against the run. I thought he looked just fine after Clemons left last week but I think that’s what people call a small sample size. The fact of the matter is that Irvin is not a known quantity when it comes to run defense. Luckily he isn’t up for the biggest challenge in that department.

There is this perception that Atlanta can really run the ball and in 2012 it couldn’t be more wrong. Atlanta, a team ahead in games often that should have been running the ball more than average, was 29th in the league in rushing yards per game and tied for 31st in first downs on the ground. Tellingly they were 28th in yards per carry, led by the aging Michael Turner (3.6 ypc) and the supposedly explosive but limited Jacquizz Rodgers (3.9 ypc). To give you another perspective the Falcons had the 31st ranked Run EPA/play in the NFL at -0.10, meaning that, on average, after the Atlanta Falcons completed a running play the team was in a situation where they were likely to score a tenth of a point less than before the play was run. These aren’t you’re the Falcons of yesteryear (literally 2011) that could cram the ball down your throat.

The thing is that even if Irvin struggles against Atlanta’s fairly dismal run game Seattle can put in Scruggs on early downs and he will likely be effective in that role. Though this might open up some early-down passing opportunities for the Falcons I think that by and large some combination of Irvin-Scruggs (the more Irvin the better) can be a reasonable facsimile of Clemons. Instead what the Seahawks need to concern themselves with is who fills Irvin’s role as the second pass rusher on passing downs. This is where the Seahawks find themselves in a spot of bother, as it were. If Irvin is the only threat he can be double teamed and Matt Ryan can enjoy a clean pocket from which he can hit Roddy White and Julio Jones downfield.

This article will address two of the names that have been brought up as potential pass rushing replacements for Clemons: Free Agent Ray Edwards and the improbable Mike Morgan. It may well happen that one of these two could be the unlikely hero for the Seahawks on Sunday, an idea that was unfathomable merely days ago.

First up is the (sort of) known quantity, former Falcon Ray Edwards. Edwards is best known for a two year stretch (2009-2010) where he put up 16.5 sacks and was thought to be a complete DE worthy of a big contract. Atlanta gave him that contract, received 3.5 sacks from him in 25 games and sent him packing earlier this year. Edwards is on the radar largely because he worked out with the Seahawks earlier this year and the fact he is a recognizable name to many NFL fans, something that cannot be said for other street free agents and the internal options Seattle have. Let’s give it the classic, but never out of style, pro-con analysis.

Ray Edwards

Pros: Edwards is still relatively young at 28 and has been durable throughout his career (never having played less than 12 games in a season) suggesting that his physical skills should still be intact. He has been successful at the NFL level and has a lengthy track record with 33 sacks in his career. Edwards at 6-4 270 has the requisite size to play on any down so if Irvin struggles against the run he could also fit in there while offering more pass rush ability from the DE spot than Scruggs would have. He could be extra motivated to play against the team that recently cut him (I know that’s pure speculation but I know I would be in his shoes). Ray Edwards is also a professional boxer with a career record of 1-0, which is pretty cool.

Cons: Edwards has been extraordinarily unproductive over the last two years after signing a 5 year contract with the Falcons prior to 2011. The Falcons really aren’t in the business of releasing good players given that they are going for a Super Bowl run so releasing him was not merely a cost-cutting measure. No other team has picked up Edwards to this point.

Overall I think you could do worse than Edwards. If he was a couple of years older I wouldn’t touch him, but maybe he just wasn’t a fit in Atlanta for whatever reason. He still likely possesses the athleticism that made him effective and he can play on any down. He’s the sort of guy Seattle could catch lightning in a bottle with, which is exactly what they need.

The other option I’ll be highlighting today is virtual unknown/backup linebacker (or so we thought) Mike Morgan. Morgan is a player that Pete Carroll knows from his USC days who perhaps was kept around due to his versatility and potential to play Leo on passing downs although I must confess that Carroll speaking about that possibility this week is the first I recall hearing about it. There isn’t that much information floating around about Morgan, for understandable reasons, but I’ll do my best to whip out the virtual legal pad for another pro-con.

Mike Morgan

Pros: The man is fast (4.47 40), like Bruce Irvin fast. Morgan put up a very impressive 27 reps on the bench press in the past suggesting that he may be stronger than his raw size would suggest. Coming out of high school some pegged Morgan as a potential Dwight Freeney-like speed rushing end. Pete Carroll knows more about Morgan than we do and figures he might be worth a look.

Cons: Morgan is an utter unknown at the position/basically in general. He has been playing, and presumably practicing at LB all year. He is really small (6’3 226) to be lining up at DE, even for a passing situation and you wouldn’t even think of putting him in if there was the remotest chance the Falcons were going to run the ball. His athletic profile is like Irvin minus 20 pounds and a little bit of short are quickness so concerns we have about Bruce getting blown out wide or physically overpowered by OT’s can basically be doubled for Morgan.

You will notice that I did not include my thoughts on putting Wagner or Wright in to rush the passer because, although that has been mentioned, I don’t think it’s wise to compromise the pass coverage in that manner, especially with Atlanta having the still effective Tony Gonzalez at TE. Overall I’d rather see the Seahawks sign Edwards because I think having two pure speed guys like Irvin and Morgan could be problematic and Morgan scares me because I have no idea what he can do. However, if Pete Carroll goes with Morgan or one of the LB’s I will trust him because this season he has most certainly earned my trust. What I don’t want to see is Carroll throw Scruggs opposite Irvin on passing downs and limit the Seahawks to one pass rushing threat and, as a result, an impotent pass rush. I haven’t outlined all the options here, just two that I have heard discussed, in all likelihood Pete Carroll and Gus Bradley have cooked up an alternative idea that hasn’t even occurred to us yet. That’s just the sort of guys they are.

Aug 24, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) is sacked by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Javier Arenas (21) in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

When I sat down to write an article today I told myself I was going to steer clear of the quarterback situation. I looked into other topics, I tried to stay away. I really did. Ultimately, I could not help myself. The quarterback competition is “the story” surrounding the Seahawks right now and it cannot be avoided. Discussion about this conundrum has become heated and frenzied, especially following Russell Wilson’s outstanding performance against Kansas City. Personally, I believe that Flynn should be given the opportunity to open the season as the starter and Russell Wilson should be brought along slowly. I understand people believing that course of action to be too conservative, and while I respect their point of view, I really do think it is too early to assume that Russell Wilson will be a star or even a viable starting quarterback based on a few preseason performances. In this article I will look at preseason passing leaders over the last five years to see how well their performances carried over to the regular season in an effort to decipher the significance of Russell Wilson’s extraordinary preseason. I will use passer rating as my tool of evaluation because, although it is imperfect, it gives an overall snapshot of quarterback performance and with smaller samples the leaderboards for counting stats like touchdowns are very clustered.

Preseason 2011- Top 5 Rated Quarterbacks*

1. Charlie Whitehurst (91.1)- I couldn’t make this stuff up. I think we all know the story here. Last year Whitehurst started two games, both of them losses, completing 48.2% of his passes with a single touchdown for a 62.9 Passer rating. Clearly his stellar work in the preseason did not continue into the regular season.

2. Stephen McGee (89.0)- McGee filled in for an injured Tony Romo in one game last year throwing for 182 yards and one touchdown for a solid, but unspectacular 83.2 Passer rating. An admirable performance for a backup QB but not one suggesting he will unseat Romo any time soon.

3. Greg McElroy (87.9)- I had never heard of McElroy before beginning to write this piece and I’m guessing you hadn’t either. He has never thrown an NFL pass.

4. Joe Flacco (82.7)- Flacco had arguably his worst year as a pro last year with career lows in completion percentage and yards per attempt. His Passer Rating of 80.9 was fairly similar to his preseason mark but his season was clearly a disappointment.

5. Matt Ryan (80.8)- Matt Ryan had possibly his best year last year setting career highs in touchdown passes (29) and Passer Rating (92.2). He is the only one on this leaderboard to exceed expectations over the course of the season.

Preseason 2010- Top Rated Quarterbacks

1. Luke McCown (99.2)- McCown went on to appear in one game with the Jaguars in 2010, throwing for 120 yards and a 76.6 rating. One should not forgot that McCown is an absolutely dreadful quarterback as demonstrated by the almost unfathomable 39.0 passer rating he managed when he opened the season as Jacksonville’s starter in 2011

2. Kyle Orton (95.4)- Despite the fact Denver was awful in 2010 Orton had a good year throwing 20 touchdowns compared with only 9 interceptions for a 87.5 rating. Although he didn’t match his preseason rating this was the best year of Orton’s career statistically.

3. Brian Hoyer (93.5)- We know very little about Hoyer who appeared in 5 games in 2010 primarily in mop up duty and produced 122 yards, one touchdown and a 69.3 passer rating. As long as Hoyer remains in New England we are very unlikely to know if he’s any good or not.

4. Joe Flacco (90.9)- Flacco makes his second appearance on the preseason leaderboards. This time he would go on to have a career year with his highest ever totals in yards (3622), touchdowns (25) and passer rating (93.6).

5. Rudy Carpenter (87.6)- Carpenter is another player I had never heard of who has not thrown a pass in the NFL.

Unfortunately some record keeping error at NFL.com has made the preseason passing stats for 2009 disappear, probably due to widespread conspiracy that goes all the way to the top of the United States government. That annoyingly breaks up the flow of our magical journey into the history of preseason passing leaders so I suppose I’ll cut things short. For the sake of brevity I will tell you that the three top rated quarterbacks in the 2008 preseason were David Carr, Brady Quinn and Dan Orlovsky. In 2007 they were Sage Rosenfels, Bruce Gradkowski and Gus Frerotte. I think you know where I’m going with this.

Russell Wilson has shown us some very exciting things in this preseason and after the win against Kansas City he has done so against first team defensive players. This does not mean nothing. However, it seems that there is virtually no correlation between preseason success and regular season success. So perhaps we need to take these performances with a grain of salt, or two, or five thousand. I’m not saying that Russell Wilson can’t or won’t be the starting quarterback for the Seahawks this year or in the future. I’m merely saying that we need to take a step back and have a little bit of perspective in terms of what he’s done so far. When Russell Wilson does what he’s doing now against NFL defenses during the regular season consistently then I will gladly hop aboard this bandwagon, until such time we need to keep our expectations within the realm of what is reasonable, especially for a rookie quarterback.

Before we get into the heated commentary that has permeated this site over the past few days I would like to point out that this article is not meant as an assault on Russell Wilson. If Wilson starts for Seattle in week one I will cheer for him with as much enthusiasm as any of the people out there calling for him to start. What people seem to forget is that both Russell Wilson and Matt Flynn are Seattle Seahawks and regardless of which one you would prefer to see start for your team they both deserve your support as a fan. Last time I checked this was a Seattle Seahawks blog not a Russell Wilson blog or a Matt Flynn blog. If someone wants to start one of those they should go ahead. Let’s not let our opinions on this quarterback situation cloud the fact that we all cheer for the Seahawks regardless of who plays where. I will support the Seahawks whether they put Russell Wilson at starting quarterback or third string defensive tackle (to be fair, he might be a bit short for that), and I hope you do as well.

*Quarterbacks had to have thrown 14 passes a game to qualify for the passer rating leaderboard