Oct 25, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin (12) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Metrodome. The Buccaneers defeated the Vikings 36-17. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

In the wake of the fairly surprising Cliff Avril signing the Percy Harvin addition may seem like old news but I thought I’d revisit the distant past if you’ll indulge me. First off I’d like to say that I am a big fan of the move because I think Percy Harvin is a unique talent who makes this offence 12.8%* more dangerous. His YAC ability, blazing speed and versatility make him enormously valuable and at 24 he is at a juncture of his career where his production is likely to ascend over the next couple of years. Pre- prime players who are already stars don’t often make their way to the trade market and when they do the cost is bound to be high. That’s what I plan to discuss today, the cost of Percy Harvin. No NFL transaction exists in a vacuum, if I were to ask any Seahawks fan a week ago, “Hey would you like to have to have Percy Harvin on the Seahawks?” the overwhelming majority of them would have said, “Yes please.” However, a small minority of alert fans/cynics would ask, “What is it going to cost me?” Harvin is a great player but regardless of his greatness there is a price that would be too high for his services. Minnesota couldn’t have simply asked for three 1^st round picks and Russell Wilson. When we analyze the price of Mr. Harvin there are two components, the first one being the draft picks the Seahawks sent to Minnesota and the second one being Harvin’s lucrative contract extension. We’ll start by looking at the draft pick cost.

The Cost of Percy Harvin Part One: Draft Picks

When the trade was all said and done the Seahawks had given Minnesota the 25^th overall pick in the 2013 draft, a 2013 7^th rounder and a 2014 3^rd rounder. The real question to the value of these picks is what kind of players you can expect to acquire with these type of picks. The centerpiece of the deal is the 25^th overall pick this year so forgive me if I spend approximately 647† times more effort determining its value. In ascending order of value:

2013 7^th round pick: The Seahawks have the 8^th, 14^th and 25^th picks in the 7^th round and I was unable to determine which one went to Minnesota but ultimately it doesn’t make a ton of difference. A 7^th round pick is an absolute lottery ticket in terms of acquiring an NFL caliber special teamer let alone a starter or difference maker of any kid. Do not let the loss of this pick trouble you.

2014 3^rd round pick: This pick is actually significant. 3^rd round picks tend to play some kind of role in the NFL and finding a starter here is far from unheard of. Stars like NaVarro Bowman, Eric Decker and of course Russell Wilson were all 3^rd round picks as well as the newest Seahawk, Cliff Avril. A 3^rd round pick is far from a sure thing but if you choose wisely you can find a very cost effective starter. If I knew exactly which pick this would be I’d give some examples of previous examples of players chosen at that spot but alas I don’t feel comfortable slotting Seattle in for the 32^nd pick just yet. It should be considered that Seattle is fairly certain to be picking in the bottom section of the round making this worse than most 3^rd round picks but far from an insignificant asset.

2013 1^st round pick (25^th overall): This is the biggest piece that the Seahawks will be relinquishing and by a fairly heavy margin. To give you a sense of the kind of players available at the 25^th spot below is a list of all the 25^th overall picks from the 2000’s with a brief career summary.

2000- Chris Hovan DT- Vikings

Hovan was an undersized penetrating DT who had a 10 year career concluding in 2009. He was very durable playing in 156 (149 starts) of a possible 160 games with the peak of his career coming in 2001-2002 where he had 11.5 sacks and a 2^nd team All-Pro berth in 2002. Good pick, good player who was great at times.

2001- Freddie Mitchell WR- Eagles

Although Freddie Mitchell was an interesting character who had some memorable moments in his career, he will likely be remembered as a disappointment and a bust. Mitchell lasted 4 years in the NFL where he was only able to total 1263 yards and 5 touchdowns despite catching balls from a then-elite Donavan McNabb. Hardly a Ryan Leaf caliber bust, but not a good player and not even really a starter (started 17 games over 4 years despite dressing for 63).

2002- Charles Grant DE- Saints

Grant was a stout DE at 6-3 282 who was known for a well-rounded game. His best years were in 2003 and 2004 when he put up 10 and 10.5 sacks respectively. In his later years Grant was less of a pure pass rusher but remained a valuable starter. Grant would end his career at age 31 with 47 career sacks. He spent all 8 years of his career with the Saints, starting 106 games for them during that span. Another good pick to grab a good starter over a long period of time.

2003- William Joseph DT- Giants

Joseph had a quiet 6 year career (4 with the Giants) in which he totaled 17 starts and 7 sacks. He started 10 games in 2005 but was never able to crack the starting lineup with any regularity otherwise. Joseph had the kind of career that thousands of NFL hopefuls would die for but not what one would expect from a 1^st round pick.

2004- Ahmad Carroll CB- Packers

Carroll is a player that I recall being fairly poorly thought of by Packers fans when he started for them in 2004 and 2005 and that seems to make sense because he was a special teams player for the rest of his career until 2009. Much like William Joseph the 5 year career that Carroll had which included 28 starts would be the envy of many players but it isn’t exactly what a team would want from its first round pick. On the plus side, Carroll had some success in the CFL where he won the Grey Cup last year with the Toronto Argonauts and promptly retired. So in a way he sailed off into the sunset, sort of.

2005- Jason Campbell QB- Redskins

Campbell was a QB that I always kind of liked but he wasn’t a franchise quarterback in the end and when your 1^st round quarterback isn’t a franchise quarterback he will be considered a disappointment. The conservative Campbell has only thrown for 20 TD’s once and has a disappointing 6.7 career yards per attempt. Campbell is the kind of guy who is probably in the top 32 best quarterbacks around at any given time but you know that if he’s starting for your team you are in need of a different solution. Hard to evaluate a player like this who is good and has been a starter but isn’t good enough and probably shouldn’t have been a starter. To be fair to Campbell he never had a ton to work with in either Washington or Oakland.

2006- Santonio Holmes WR- Steelers

Probably the first player we’ve dealt with so far who many would consider to be an elite talent. The 2008 Super Bowl MVP has had an excellent career with 5507 yards and 35 TD’s so far to go along with 59.9 yards receiving per game. His numbers have declined since going to the Jets, probably in large part due to poor QB play. Seems to be spending his prime languishing on an awful team with an awful passing offense but he’s making enough money that it’s hard to feel sorry for him. Excellent player and an excellent pick.

2007- Jon Beason MLB- Panthers

Beason is an absolute stud. Or perhaps he was. It’s hard to say exactly. In Beason’s first four years in the league he was a Pro Bowler thrice and a first team All-Pro once. He was a tackling machine who was a major asset to a relatively inept Carolina defense in both the rushing and passing games. Unfortunately, Beason has only played 5 games in the last two years due to injury and it’s pretty difficult to project what his career might look like from here. Even so, most teams would take 64 excellent starts and 3 Pro Bowl appearances from their 1^st round picks.

2008- Mike Jenkins CB- Cowboys

Jenkins is currently a free agent and I haven’t heard of any team expressing interest yet. Not to say that his NFL career is done but that should give some indication of where Mike Jenkins is at. Jenkins made the Pro Bowl in 2009 after hauling in 5 interceptions and deflecting 19 passes but never had another season even remotely as impressive. In his five years in the league he has amassed only 8 interceptions and he lost his starting gig with Dallas last year. Jenkins was a starter for 3 years, one of them good and that in itself has some value but the perception of him suffers because he never lived up to the promise he showed in his second season.

2009- Vontae Davis CB- Dolphins

The fact the Vontae Davis is already on his second team is somewhat alarming but the Colts corner has been a solid starter over the last four years who may not have reached his potential yet. At 24 it seems a bit early to render judgment on the athletic Davis other than to say that the fact he is already an established starter in the NFL bodes well and he is probably a better player than at least half of the players listed above him.

2010- Tim Tebow QB- Broncos

There are a million things that could be said about Tim Tebow. This article is about Percy Harvin so I will refrain from a tempting tangent. I will say that in my humble opinion Tim Tebow is not a good quarterback and he may well be an adequate football player in a different capacity but even if this is the case he should be thought of as a disappointment in the context of being a 1^st round pick.

2011- James Carpenter OT- Seahawks

There are reasons to be disappointed with this pick, like injury concerns and the fact Carpenter lacks the feet to play RT, a positon of need on the Seahawks, but the fact is Carpenter looks capable of becoming a quality starter at guard. If you can get a quality starter it’s hard to complain especially when you are picking late enough in the first round that the truly elite talents are unlikely to be available. This looks like a fine pick if Carpenter can stay healthy.

2012- Don’t’a Hightower- ILB Patriots

Hightower started 13 games as a rookie and was productive with 4 sacks, 2 FR and a touchdown. He looks like a keeper but it’s really far too early to say if this was a wise pick for the patriots.

There’s the list. There are some good players here but there are very few elite players. Beason is undoubtedly one, providing 3 of the 4 collective Pro Bowl appearances among these 13 players. You could probably argue that Santonio Holmes was an elite player with Pittsburgh and he is a Superbowl MVP so that’s 2/13 (15%) elite players. Elite is fairly subjective so let’s talk about starters. If we call we generously call James Carpenter and Don’t’a Hightower starters we have 10 starters (although Carroll and Campbell could be viewed as disappointments in the role). I suspect that’s an unusually high number for this area of the draft and given the small sample I imagine it’s not very predictive. I would guess that if you included picks 23 through 27 you would find a higher bust rate. This study of 25^th picks is more descriptive of the type of player you are likely to find in that spot than predictive of the future in any way. This history suggests that at the 25^th pick you are likely to find a solid starter for your team who is not a Pro Bowler (Hovan, Grant, Jenkins and Davis fall into this category with Carpenter and Hightower pretty good bets to fit into this category). On the surface it seems very unlikely that you will find a Harvin-quality player. However, the Vikings don’t necessarily need to find a Harvin quality player to come away from this trade ok. The beauty of a late first round pick  is that not only are you likely to get a starter, you are likely to get one at an incredibly low price. Last year Don’t’a’ Hightower got a 4 year contract worth 7.7 million from the Patriots out of the draft, which is absolute peanuts when you consider what a 22 year old starting caliber linebacker could fetch on a hypothetical open market. The 25^th pick is immensely valuable because the Vikings are not only likely to restock their talent but at an incredibly discount. When you add that to the 7^th round lottery ticket and the substantial but somewhat mysterious 2014 3^rd round pick you are looking at quite the haul for Minnesota and a heavy price paid for Seattle. Now let’s look more briefly (I promise) at the contract.

The Cost of Percy Harvin Part Two: Harvin’s Extension

I realize the journey to determine what the Seahawks gave up in draft picks was a long one so I’ll try and be a bit shorter here. The reality is that if brevity is truly the soul of wit than I am a truly witless man. Sometimes numbers speak louder than words so I’m going to throw up a career stats and contract comparison of Percy Harvin to Mike Wallace and Dwayne Bowe, the big WR’s who signed as free agents this year.

If you look at this chart Harvin is the youngest, cheapest (on a yearly basis), and most productive, on a per game basis. The Seahawks are paying the market price for a receiver of Harvin’s skill level. That means that Harvin’s surplus value comes from extraordinary production not a team friendly contract but that’s ok. Harvin is capable of providing extraordinary production and has done so in the past with regularity. His youth also makes the contract more sensible as the Chiefs will be paying a premium for some of Dwayne Bowe’s decline years, and while the Dolphins get years 26-31 with Wallace, which should be productive, I’m more confident in Harvin’s 24-30 years as they make up the heart of his prime. There is no doubt that this is an expensive contract but it is a fair contract and the Seahawks are paying a premium price for a premium player.

Overall I hope this gives you a sense of what it costs to get a 24 year old star like Percy Harvin. The Seahawks relinquished a draft pick that is likely to provide value both in terms of talent and a cap friendly salary and two others as well as giving Harvin a contract that he must continue to produce in order to justify. The cost is high. We cannot pretend the Seahawks did not pay dearly for Percy Harvin. People are often naturally risk-averse and this is a risk. I think that this is a risk Seattle won’t regret because Harvin is the rare player who can produce enough to be valuable even at a very high salary. It is my belief this move makes this team better in the short and long term but Minnesota got theirs too (especially when you consider the cap room they save by not extending Harvin) and it was far from the steal. This deal is high risk, high reward and high stakes. Sounds like an awful lot of fun to me. Also sounds an awful lot like Pete Carroll.

*If you remember this asterisk from the beginning of the article congratulations. I just wanted you to note that I made that number up based on absolutely nothing (but it sounds vaguely plausible right?). It’s important to be transparent.

† Apparently I was in the making up number mood today…

December 23, 2012; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Mike Wallace (17) runs after a pass reception as Cincinnati Bengals outside linebacker Manny Lawson (left) defends during the third quarter at Heinz Field. The Cincinnati Bengals won 13-10. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Although the NFL season isn’t over, unfortunately the Seahawks’ season is over so now is the time to talk about the off-season, even if the off-season isn’t officially upon us.  The Seahawks have done an excellent job of building through the draft and that appears to be essential to their philosophy but that doesn’t mean that free agency should be ignored. John Schneider and Co. have dabbled in free agency over the past couple years with the signing of players like Sidney Rice, Zach Miller and Robert Gallery, and frankly results have been mixed. Seattle has money to spend and is hoping to find some pieces to supplement the strong, young core of this team. One area of interest is the wide receiver position where there is a plethora of starting-quality options at a position where the Seahawks could use some help. Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin are all capable receivers but Russell Wilson could definitely use another weapon or two to take this passing offense to the next level. In this article I’ll outline some of the top free agent wide receivers that could be Seattle’s if they are willing to spend a pretty penny. In no particular order here are the top wide receivers available in free agency this year:

Dwayne Bowe: The big-bodied Bowe has been a very steady performer in some fairly terrible passing offenses in Kansas City  with 1,000 yard seasons in 3 of the last 5 years, and 801 yards last year. Though Bowe is a bigger wide out he still has the ability to challenge a defense down the field. He has 13.8 yards per reception for his career, much of which has been spent in tandem with the noodle-armed Matt Cassel. Bowe is also a threat in the red zone as demonstrated by his 15 TD season in 2010 and has been able to consistently find pay dirt in the past (39 TD in 6 seasons). I think that Bowe would bring an element of physicality to the Seahawks receiving core that is currently lacking but he is not without his warts. There are plenty of whispers (some of them of the none-too-quiet variety) about work ethic and attitude issues with Bowe and he has a tendency to drop the ball, posting the 9^th highest drop rate in the NFL between 2009 and 2011. Additionally, Bowe will turn 29 early in the 2013 season so if you sign him to a lengthy deal you are counting on him producing into his thirties, not impossible but not the safest bet either. Buying the decline years of a player, no matter how good he is, is always a dicey proposition. Still I think the Seahawks might be interested in Bowe because his skill set is unique to their receiving group and Pete Carroll thinks he can get anyone to buy in.

Danny Amendola: Danny Amendola is intriguing because he’s clearly a productive and useful player but he can’t seem to stay on the field, playing in 12 games over the last two seasons. Amendola was on pace for an 1,000 yard season this year with the Rams but ultimately had injuries befall him and ended up with only 666 yards. Amendola caught 5.7 balls a game this year which would have been 91 catches if he had played the whole season. Therein lies the rub. You can have absolutely beautiful rate stats but it doesn’t really matter unless you can pile up the gross numbers by staying on the field. Health is a skill in this league and Amendola’s 5 11 183 pound frame doesn’t scream durability. Someone will take a chance on Amendola’s elite quickness and ability to get open out of the slot but I’d rather it not be the Seahawks. As satisfying as it would be to take a quality player off a division rival I’d rather see the Rams resign Amendola (which I suspect they will given his chemistry with Sam Bradford) and live with the consequences. Amendola will be 28 in 2013 so age is not really a concern as slot receivers not relying on pure speed have potential to age gracefully, like Bobby Engram did.  Even still, I think an investment in Amendola is one that ends in heartbreak, although it would be hard to be too disappointed if Seattle signed him because he is a really fine player.

Wes Welker: Wes Welker is a very interesting case. Looking at numbers alone makes one salivate at the prospect of adding a player like Wes Welker. Who wouldn’t want a receiver who has had 110+ catches in 5 of the last 6 years, leading the league thrice during that span? I bet a receiver with 7459 yards over the past six seasons also sounds fairly tempting. Also it isn’t as if Welker has slowed down at all recently, setting a career high with 1569 yards in 2011 and a still-fantastic 1354 yards in 2012. So what’s the hold up? The first one is arguably the most important number of all which is age. Welker will be 32 this year and although his style of play lends itself to a more generous aging curve 32 is pretty dangerous place to start a long term contract. Welker is a special player and he may yet have five or six productive years left in him but I’m not sure that’s something I want to bet tens of millions of dollars on. The second more profound question mark surrounding Wes Welker is what he is capable of outside of the New England offense and without Tom Brady. I’m not saying Welker doesn’t have a universally useful skill set, every team could use a ball catching machine out of the slot, but Welker didn’t show much in Miami before coming to New England and the concern is he’s sort of just a guy outside that system. I think both concerns are valid and I would steer clear of Welker, especially given that I still think Doug Baldwin can be a weapon out of the slot despite something of a lost 2012 season.

Mike Wallace: Of all the receivers mentioned so far Mike Wallace is both the fastest and the youngest. That’s a pretty good start in my book. Wallace is an absolute burner and he is only turning 27 this year so a free agent contract with Wallace stands to buy some of his peak years making it easier to be comfortable with a fairly generous term like 5 or 6 years. Mike Wallace is coming off a rough year, much of which can be attributed to Charlie Batchitude and also to a prolonged holdout going into the season.  Clearly Mike Wallace wants to be paid, but he deserves to be paid. Over the last three years Wallace has put up 3286 yards receiving and 26 touchdowns. Although he is primarily a speed receiver the other parts of his game are growing as well. He has gone from 2.6 catches a game in his rookie year to 4.3 last year demonstrating an ability to contribute on short and intermediate patterns. Wallace has also been durable playing in 63 of a possible 64 games in his career. In short I’m a fan. I think now might be the time to buy a low (relatively speaking, this will still be a hefty contract) on Wallace. A wide receiving core featuring Wallace, Rice and Tate would be lethal down the field, giving opposing defensive backs nightmares. Wallace would look good in Seahawks colors.

Brian Hartline: Hartline, like Wallace, will be 27 this year and unlike Wallace is coming off an 1,000 yard season. While productive, Hartline lacks elite size and speed and can sometimes have trouble creating separation from quality defensive backs. While his numbers are slightly inflated by one massive game this season in which he went for well over 200 yards, Hartline is for real. I suspect that Miami will try and resign their de facto number one receiver who profiles as more of a #2 on a quality team. Honestly, that’s fine with me. There isn’t a great deal to hate about Hartline and he is coming off a good year but he’s not an impact talent in my book. Free agents, especially ones coming off good years, come at a premium cost and when you are paying a premium cost you best be sure you are getting a premium talent. Hartline is an appealing age and coming off a quality season but I’d rather sit out on the bidding which figures to exceed his value. I think both Rice and Tate are better players so I see no reason to add Hartline at an exorbitant cost.

Greg Jennings: Jennings is coming off a tough season where he fought through some difficult injuries and by all accounts the emergence of James Jones and Randall Cobb in Green Bay indicate he’s made his last Lambeau Leap. With 2 Pro Bowl berths and three 1,000 yard seasons to his name (and 2 more 900 yard seasons) Jennings is an accomplished and intriguing free agent option. Greg Jennings reminds me of Darrell Jackson at his peak, not the fastest but not slow, not the biggest but not small and able to simply get the job down. Jennings will be 30 this year so I would be hesitant to give him the sort of long term deal he’s likely asking for.  I think Jennings would make a fine addition to the Seahawks but for me it depends on the price, if his age and recent injury concerns depress his value enough then pouncing on Jennings would be a prudent move but if the market sees him as a marquee #1 receiver I would back off. Also given the Sidney Rice is the resident injury risk the Seahawks might want someone more reliable if they are going to spend big in free agency. The market for Jennings is going to be very interesting, and one the Seahawks should keep tabs on.

This year’s free agency pool has some pretty impressive talent at the WR position. All the receivers listed here figure to play prominent roles on whatever team they end up on but enough of them carry red flags that we can expect a couple of busts. If the Seahawks are in the mood for big-ticket shopping at this position I’d recommend Bowe or Wallace but neither is cheap or risk free. However, if the Seahawks want to move up the ladder for great team to championship team they are going to have to take some risks. Luckily that’s never been a problem for this front office.