Nov 18, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans free safety Danieal Manning (38) forces Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert (11) to fumble in the first quarter at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

You’ll have to excuse me as I venture away from writing about just the Seahawks this morning. When stories about NFL teams using analytics appear on my radar, I take notice. I’ve also also taken an interest in the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason.

This is partly because I have tremendous respect for former Seahawks defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, who is now their head coach. It is also because Bradley is using Seattle as a mold in terms of on-field scheme and Pete Carroll’s philosophy of competition. I find it very fascinating.

One of the stories from the past week that won’t go away is that that the Jaguars are using statistical metrics to justify their selection of offensive tackle Luke Joeckel.

Apparently, when given 2.6 seconds or longer to throw, Blaine Gabbert was in the top third in the NFL in passer rating (13th out of 38 quarterbacks with enough passes to qualify). When given 2.5 seconds or less, he was horrible (34th). In response to this the Jaguars drafted Joeckel to ensure that Gabbert (hopefully) has at least 2.6 seconds to throw.

If this story is true, then I believe it is a poor use of analytical tools. When I see Gabbert’s performance based on his time to throw, I don’t conclude that he just needs more time.” Rather, I think see a much bigger (more obvious) problem.

If the conclusion is that Gabbert regularly faced too much pressure, that should show up in the stats as well, but it doesn’t. Gabbert was only under pressure for 32.7% of his throws. While that sounds like a lot, there were 16 quarterbacks who faced pressure on a higher percentage of throws.

The problem wasn’t that Gabbert couldn’t perform under pressure. His completion percentage when under pressure was actually the best in the NFL in 2012 (57.7%). His accuracy when under pressure was also good at 70.8%, 6th best in the NFL. Pressure, it seems, wasn’t the problem.

Another factor that could create the discrepancy is play-action. Play-action passes generally take longer to develop. They also tend to create holes in the defense that can be exploited. Looking at Gabbert’s play action stats, he completed passes at a rate almost 14% higher when using play-action compared to standard pass plays. That is the highest difference of any quarterback in the league. It should also be noted that when Gabbert had over 2.6 seconds to throw, he completed nearly half  of his play-action passes (46%).

All of that data would suggest that the Jaguars are better off simply using more play-action, and using the 2nd overall pick elsewhere. It also suggest that the true problem isn’t time, it’s Gabbert.

Gabbert’s inability to complete passes under 2.6 seconds suggests that he struggles to read defenses pre-snap and has no idea where he’s going with the ball based on the defensive alignment. For a player who has just completed his second  full season in the NFL, that’s a major problem.

I should briefly stop and recognize that I’m writing this because of a giant case of “coach-speak.” While Jaguar fans and NFL analysts are all up in arms because the team seems to be building around Gabbert, that is unlikely what is actually going on here.

As I said above, Bradley is rebuilding the Jaguars using the same methods and tools that Pete Carroll used with the Seahawks. Carroll spent the first two seasons rebuilding the roster, but didn’t address the quarterback position until year three. Instead, the team trotted out  two quarterbacks that were very clearly not part of the team’s long term plans.

That is most likely going on in Jacksonville, as well. The 2.6 seconds nonsense is to justify another year of Gabbert to the fans and players in the locker room. If it works out, that’s great, but no one really expects it to.

It’s very similar to the Seahawks in 2011 with Tarvaris Jackson. He was clearly not the long term solution at quarterback, but you would never have known it if all you did was listen to the Pete Carroll’s press conferences. Carroll had some Seahawks fans in a panic thinking that the team was about to commit to Jackson long term. Instead, he signed Matt Flynn and drafted Russell Wilson, and we all know how that worked out.

Basically, if you’re a Jaguars fan and you happened to find your way here, then I suggest being patient. Rebuilding the team won’t happen overnight, and Bradley likely won’t address the quarterback position as quickly as you want him to. You still have a gifted and charismatic coach leading the way. Just try not to get caught up in the coach-speak. He did coach under Carroll, after all.

Finally, if you’re a Seahawks fan who waded through this wall of text about another team, let me leave you with a final thought. How awesome is it that we are no longer stressing out over Seattle’s starting quarterback? We should all appreciate how awesome it is to have Russell Wilson under center in Seattle. I know I do.

Go Hawks!

January 19, 2013; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; West running back Christine Michael of Texas A&M

The Seahawks have finally made their first pick in the 2013 draft. It just took until the final pick of the second round to get here. With that pick, Seattle took Christine (pronounced Chris-TIN) Michael, a running back from Texas A&M. Chances are you’re wondering who the hell that is. Allow me to enlighten you.

According to NFL.com, Michael’s strengths include a “low center of gravity” but with a “thickness throughout his frame to take and give out punishment.” He has more speed than one would think when he is able to break open as well. Overall, Michael is a bruiser that will be a nice compliment to Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin. Both Lynch and Turbin are hard to bring down, and Lynch will occasionally level a tackler, but Michael has the ability to straight damage some defenders. Michael is also a good blocker that is able to lead the ball into the second level.

According to CBS Sports, Michael started 2012 rated by some as the “top senior running back in the country.” Attitude issues, however, took him out of the starting role, and the spotlight, which is probably a big reason he was relatively unknown and is yet another “what the what” pick by Pete Carroll and John Schneider.

Michael has had injury issues and missed the ends of both his sophomore and junior year. He broke his right leg in 2010 and the following season he tore his ACL. However, in 13 games he ran for 1,530 yards and 12 touchdowns. If he can check his attitude issues at the door and stay healthy, Michael should have an opportunity to contribute greatly in Seattle.

If Seattle starts utilizing a running back by committee approach it could be a very different dynamic on offense and make them harder to prepare for and defend. Diversity is a killer.

Another thing that I just thought of is whether or not Seattle might consider lining up Michael at full back and getting all three backs (Lynch, Turbin, and Michael) on the field at the same time. This could also give Seattle more flexibility when it comes to dealing with Michael Robinson’s contract.

This pick could also have fantasy implications as it might limit carries by Lynch.

No matter what, I think we should all get #inpcjswetrust trending because I expect a lot more unexpected picks out of Seattle for the rest of the draft.

Dec 30 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brady Quinn (9) checks off in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field. The Broncos defeated the Chiefs 38-3. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

When I heard that Seattle signed Quinn instead of Seneca Wallace or Matt Leinart, I was confused. I thought that Quinn was the least likely to be chosen.  Quinn lacks the raw foot speed of Russell Wilson. However, he does have good footwork in the pocket and is able to shuffle his feet well enough to create room.  Don’t expect Quinn to be running the ball out of the zone read option anytime soon, though.

I was comfortable with Wallace as Matt Hasselbeck’s backup. He is not great by any measure, but he has a strong arm and can make plays with his legs. He is also someone who can take care of the ball and limit mistakes.

Following the Quinn signing I had to find out more about his abilities. What did Pete Carroll see in him above Wallace, Leinart, and Thigpen? Carroll likes players who bring a unique skill set to the team. What is  Brady Quinn’s? He had flamed out in Cleveland, Denver, and Kansas City. All three teams basically said, “thanks, but no thanks.”

After doing some reading, I learned that Quinn is, in fact, very unique, at least to Carroll. In Matt Flynn, Seattle had one of the best backups in the NFL as well as a good starter. Seattle hopes Quinn will be able to share his experience with Russell, and Russell with Quinn to create a strong quarterback room.

During my research I found an interview with Quinn’s former quarterback Coach in Kansas City, Jim Zorn. In it Zorn praised Quinn for his football IQ, work ethic, and attitude. He spoke highly of Quinn’s ability to make calls at the line of scrimmage and predict what the defense is trying to do, and put the offense in a position to be successful. This carries some weight since Zorn himself was a quarterback and has coached the likes of Trent Dilfer, Matt Hasselbeck, and Joe Flacco.

While Zorn’s opinion is valuable, the fact that Quinn has not translated his skill set onto the field for an extended period of time is troubling. He has shown flashes of being a solid NFL quarterback but has yet to prove he can play consistently at a high level.

Having a solid offensive foundation in place, including an above average receiving corps, may help Quinn out. I do believe having a quarterback who is willing to talk things out with Russell Wilson will benefit both players. Flynn was not known to share Wilson’s regimen of arriving first and leaving last, which may have been a big factor in trading him. I do not believe Carroll would have signed Quinn if he felt that Quinn would be unwilling to help the growth of Russell Wilson in the film room and playing field.

My ideal quarterback situation is to have a starter who makes those around him better, and, if needed, can take games over. I believe Seattle has that in Russell Wilson. The backup must be able to competently run the offense, not make too many mistakes, and put the ball in other play-makers’ hands. In other words, play completely and comfortably within himself and the system

It remains to be seen if Quinn is a lock to be the number two quarterback behind Russell Wilson.  Josh Portis, is also a talented quarterback who Seattle likes and resigned with the team during the off-season. The NFL draft will include players such as USC’s Matt Barkley, who played under Pete Carroll for a season, and Matt Scott, who has risen up draft boards since the combine. Scott is raw as a passer, but is able to move around well, and run the same offense that was installed for Russell Wilson.

It remains to be seen whether Quinn can live up to that standard. I will be excited to see the steps he takes in preseason to better both himself and the team.

Nov.25, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Seattle Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor (right) during a game against the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Seahawks, as you may know, signed Kam Chancellor to a well deserved extension Monday. The extension is yet another demonstration of how Seattle is an organization that players can be excited about joining. It also doesn’t just just throw money at their good players. Competition is great and becoming a starter the hard way is terrific, but it’s not every day that you get rewarded the way Kam was rewarded on Monday.

As a fan watching the press conference, it was hard not to smile while viewing a beaming Mr. Chancellor and realizing that the guys flanking him were just as happy, if not more so, about what was happening. Of course head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider were those on either side of Kam’s broad shoulders. As he sat there, Kam appeared to be living a dream that went beyond the NFL Draft. He was being recognized for his incredible contributions to a team that has evolved from a losing football team to one of the NFL’s best in just four seasons. He was so thrilled that he said there were “too many words to explain how I feel. Just feel good.”

Throw out all the numbers of the contract and forget that he’s on our football team. It was just a fun moment as a fan to see the enjoyment and appreciation of someone accomplishing such a high level of achievement in their life. The thing that was impressive to hear was a comment Schneider made about his young star in the conference’s closing moments. “Obviously, this is a big deal. A lot of this day is for Kam. Kam was a fifth round draft pick, he hasn’t been able to experience something like this. Hopefully he’s here for the rest of his career. So he’s taken away unrestricted free agency for himself, for this day. This is a very important deal.”

That’s awesome. Not everybody gets an extension like this and, even more, gets his own press conference for it. The organization wanted Kam Chancellor to be able to experience his own day in the spotlight as a person, more than just the enforcer behind the pads on Sundays. He wasn’t able to on draft weekend because of the lateness of his pick, so it was important to bring that feeling of recognized accomplishment into his life. That’s special.

I think that Carroll and Schneider will continue to let their special players have at least one special day, whether it be as a high draft pick or a guy who overcame obstacles to earn his payday. It says a lot about how “classy” the Seahawks organization is. We should be proud as the 12th Man to stand behind these guys as a team each and every Sunday, not to mention the individual players that now make up one of the best rosters in the NFL!

Go Hawks!

Dec 23, 2012, Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider looks at the Seahawks bench in between during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Given the Seahawks lofty status of playoff team and being ranked as the 2013 preseason NFL’s best team, it’s  easy to forget where this team stood last year at this time, a week before the draft.  Here we are in mid April again, wondering who the Seahawks may draft starting with the second round after having traded their first round pick to Minnesota for Percy Harvin.  The Seahawks are widely said to have “won” free agency after having gone blow for blow with the San Francisco 49ers in signing big name players.  And the likely answer to the question; “who will the team pick in the second round”?, is a resounding – “Who cares?  Let’s PLAY”!

The team has already improved itself so much that any player they pick up in the draft will be the sprinkles on the frosting of the cake.  In one year the team has gone from just recently having achieved the “respectable” moniker, to “Super Bowl favorite”, and that’s BEFORE the 2013 draft even takes place!  There is really some question as to whether any draft picks will even make the team.  While the draft may seem a bit anti-climactic after the free agency blitz the team just put on, just remember it was exactly a year ago we were almost positive Matt Flynn would be the Hawk’s starting quarterback in 2012.  In other words, with John Schneider and Pete Carroll calling the shots, expect the unexpected.  Expect a player or three who can not only make this team, but who can make this team better.

Just for fun, let’s review a few stories Seahawks fans were reading and hearing about their team exactly one year ago.

- Fans of the Seahawks were being told by football writers that;

- We should take heart in the fact that although the Seahawks started 2011 with a 2-6 record, they finished well with a 5-3 record and matched their 2010 mark of 7-9.

- The Seahawks of 2011 were competitive in all but one of their losses.

- The Seahawks had released their big 2011 free agency catch Robert Gallery.

- Excitement for the “two tight end set” grew with the signing of tight end Kellen Winslow from Tampa Bay.

- The team had released and re-signed Marcus Trufant.

-  The team was happy to have locked up Marshawn Lynch for the next 4 years and Red Bryant for 5 years.

- Breno Giacomini had done such a good job filling in at right tackle for the injured first rounder James Carpenter, he was re-signed and talk began of moving Carpenter to the guard position.

- The names Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Brandon Browner, and Earl Thomas were not yet “household names”, much less the “best secondary in football”.

- Matt Flynn was the “crown jewel” of the Seahawks free agent class.  His position with the team would require him to beat out Tavaris Jackson and whatever rookie quarterback the team may pick up in the 2012 draft.  Consensus was the QB job was Flynn’s to lose.  Nobody, except for a few die hard college football junkies or Wisconsin fans had ever heard of Russell Wilson…

Seahawks fans should understand it’s OK be excited about the 2013 draft, even without a first round pick.  Last year the team picked up a franchise quarterback, a starting linebacker, an excellent backup running back, and a starting offensive lineman converted from defense…all AFTER the first round.

Oct 21, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings defensive back Antoine Winfield (26) against the Arizona Cardinals at the Metrodome. The Vikings defeated the Cardinals 21-14. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Rarely when your team schedules a visit with a soon to be 36 year old cornerback should you be excited, but today might be the exception to that rule. Antoine Winfield is scheduled to visit Seattle this week as the Seahawks try to address something of a question mark at the nickel corner position. Although Walter Thurmond and Jeremy Lane are candidates for this spot Winfield is a definite upgrade.

The first concern with Winfield is his age given that he is 35, turning 36 in June. To be wary of an old player at such a physically demanding position is natural but Winfield does not seem to be slowing down. The 5-9 190 lb corner started 15 games last year and played in all 16, and while he has missed 17 games in the last four years, he comes in without any current injury concerns. After injury the second most important concern about aging players is declining performance. Winfield puts this concern to rest given that his 2012 season was one of the best in his 14 year career. He had three interceptions, tied for his 3^rd best career total, and 12 passes defended which was tied for 2^nd best in his career. These numbers suggest that Winfield hasn’t lost enough to be a liability in coverage, even if the reality is that pure coverage has never been his specialty.

The real reason why this potential signing is so brilliant is because Antoine Winfield fits perfectly with what Pete Carroll likes to do on defense. Arguably his greatest talent is in run support, which is a point of emphasis for this defense since Carroll has been in Seattle. Defending the run was also a greater weakness than many realized in 2012 as the Seahawks conceded a problematic 4.5 yards per carry. Additionally, Winfield has shown the ability to get to the quarterback on the cornerback blitz, something that Pete Carroll is very fond of, especially out of the slot.  In the last five seasons Antoine Winfield has produced 6.5 sacks, which is not a staggering number but not an irrelevant one either for a cornerback. When one considers that games missed over that span it is even more impressive. Winfield can clearly be an interesting occasional weapon rushing the passer out of the slot, something that makes him even more appealing to the Seahawks.

A visit is no guarantee of a signing but this one caught my eye because Antoine Winfield appears to be a really good fit for this Seattle team. As a Super Bowl contender the Seahawks should be looking to sign older players at a discounted price to help them win over the short term the way the Patriots have been doing for years. I don’t know exactly what Antoine Winfield’s price is but I can’t imagine he would be particularly cost prohibitive and it seems like he would be an excellent addition due to his ability to stop the run, rush the passer, and hold up in in coverage, even during his twilight years.

December 16, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Buffalo Bills defensive end Mario Williams (94) against Seattle Seahawks offensive tackle Breno Giacomini (68) at the Rogers Centre. Seattle defeated Buffalo 50-17. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

I’ll admit that the number people commenting on this site the last few days in support of Breno Giacomini greatly surprised me. I’ve become used to a generally level of unabashed Breno-hate on the web. I had come to believe I was one of his “supporters” simply because I didn’t want him run out of town on the first available bus.

Views on Breno are obviously disparate. My views land on the side that he’s fairly mediocre and should be replaced as a starter if the team can find a suitable player. I’m also not always right (obviously!), and am willing examine the possibility that I’ve been selling Giacomini’s ability and performance short.

Since I didn’t have 48+ hours (or about 16 if I watched the condensed versions) available to go through all of the Seahawks tape while writing this, I decided to use the data available from Pro Football Focus. They grade every player on every play, so their performance ratings are very comprehensive. I’ve found that their player grades are the best of the advanced metrics that are out there.

Here is a snapshot Giacomini’s performance from 2012 according to PFF. I also compared him to the other full time offensive tackles. (43 qualifying players who played at least 75% of their team’s offensive snaps)

I have to say, the data here is pretty clear. There weren’t a lot of offensive tackles that played worse than he did in 2012. It wasn’t just penalties either. Giacomini wasn’t very good in any aspect of the game. If anything, my view that he was a little below average may have been giving him too much credit.

So lets get this over with. Time to dispel some myths:

Myth 1: He’s a road grader in the running game.

He’s not. Giacomini ended the year with a negative performance rating in run blocking. He was also 32st of 43 full time offensive tackles in run blocking. If you remove the left tackles from the list (which are usually there for their pass blocking) it looks even worse. There were only four right tackles in the NFL that ended the season with a worse performance rating for run blocking.

While run blocking might be his strength, he’s still in the bottom 25% in the NFL.

Myth 2: His pass blocking isn’t that bad for a right tackle.

The above data is pretty clear. He’s among the worst pass blockers in the entire NFL. Even if you look at only right tackles (which are usually not as good as left tackles in terms of pass blocking) it’s still bad. Only two starting right tackles finished with lower pass blocking performance ratings.

Myth 3: His penalty problems got better over the course of the season.

The data doesn’t support this. He had seven penalties in the first half, and five in the second half. He had a negative performance score for penalties in five games in the first half, and four in the second half. That sounds like improvement, but it isn’t statistically significant (which means that the change isn’t enough that it can’t be distinguished from random variance).

The real change was the number of penalty yards given up. Instead of 15 yard personal foul penalties, he was giving up 10 yard holding penalties and 5 yard false start penalties. This leads to the perception that the penalty situation is improved much more than it might have been.

Is Giacomini improving?

This is an interesting question. If he is, then dealing with his shortcomings becomes easier because we can expect better things from him in the future. In this case, the data is fairly inconclusive.

The thing that jumps out to me is that he was more consistent, and had more aspects of his game that were positive in the second half. That suggests improvement. He also had his second worst game of the season in week 17, which suggests otherwise.

The difficult part in trying to learn anything meaningful from the data is that the talent of the opposing team isn’t included. That stretch of generally positive results for Giacomini came during the “soft” part of the Seahawk’s schedule. Did he actually play better? Or was this simply the case of looking better because he played against inferior defenders? I’m not sure.

Like I said above, the data is inconclusive. I think most people will look at that chart and see whatever they thought before looking at the data. It’s called confirmation bias. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Back to whether or not he’s improving. We are talking about a guy who has been in the league for five years. Few players ever improve significantly this far into their career. There is also no discernible change from his 2011 performance data. Both of these facts suggest that even if he does improve for 2013, it would be unreasonable to expect drastic improvement. It could happen, but logic and history suggest it’s exceedingly unlikely.

But what about attitude/intangibles?

This is where Giacomini has the edge. He’s a full-effort guy. He’s mean. He blocks through (and sometimes past) the whistle. These are good things. I like the “edge” that he brings. His demeanor and attitude are a good fit for the running game.

But is that enough?

One thing that I keep hearing about is the positive things that Pete Carroll and Tom Cable said about Breno last season.  I honestly think people are reading too much into those statements. You have to take into account the context of what was going on.

Carroll and Cable were getting pounded by questions about Giacomini’s negative performance. Of course they’re going to be positive. That’s their job. They aren’t going to throw one of their starters under the bus. That isn’t how the NFL works. It’s what we like to call “coach speak,” and Carroll is a master of it.

Also, if you look at the quotes, Carroll praised Breno’s attitude and effort, but not his play. Cable said that Giacomini was the one guy he’d want in a street fight with him, but since when does street fighting correlate to being an NFL tackle?

I think people are reading too much into these quotes, but that’s just my opinion

So what does this all mean?

I think the take-away from all of this is that the Seahawks need to find a long-term solution at the position. Giacomini simply isn’t a quality NFL offensive tackle. There isn’t a nicer way for me to put it.

The Seahawks also know what they have in Breno. They know they can win even if he continues to play at a low level. There’s trust there. I believe that this is why he’s still on the roster. If an upgrade can’t be found, they know they can roll with him at right tackle for another year.

He’s also entering the final year of his contract, and is due significantly more than his play would indicate. The Seahawks need to free up some cap room, and could generate $3.5 million in cap room by replacing him with a rookie or cheap veteran. So while Breno is safe now, that doesn’t mean he’ll remain so.

Ultimately, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Giacomini not make the 53 man roster. As long as there is someone who can replace his production (which the above data suggests shouldn’t be hard to find), then there’s no reason to keep his inflated contract on the books.

Jan 6, 2013; Landover, MD, USA; Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Alan Branch (99) celebrates pressuring Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III (10) during the second half of the NFC Wild Card playoff game at FedEx Field. The Seahawks won 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

With free agency winding down, especially for the Seahawks I would imagine, it seems about time to take stock of where Seattle sits heading into the draft. It’s no secret the Seahawks are a good team, no amount of east-coast bias could blind the football world to that fact. The Seahawks may well be a great team, in fact I have them in the top five as we stand at this moment. As a result, this article is going to be much shorter than it might have been in previous years. Today what I’m going to examine is remaining areas of concern for the 2013 Seahawks. We are a couple of draft picks and perhaps a few bargain bin free agents from a final roster at the moment and with any luck these shockingly few holes will be filled come the regular season. The following is an account of what’s missing/a shopping list for this front office:

#1: A starting quality DT to pair with Brandon Mebane

This need might be satisfied in a fairly anti-climactic manner with the return of Alan Branch but that is no guarantee. Branch is only 28, he’s available, and he’s probably relatively cheap. None of that is anything to sneeze at. Additionally he has started 31 of 32 games for the Seahawks and provided four sacks and solid run stuffing during that time. This is also noteworthy. Contrarily Branch only had one sack and one tackle for loss last season compared to three and five in 2011. Branch is a known quantity but he’s far from exciting and most definitely upgrade-able  I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle brought back Branch but I also think there’s a good chance they draft a DT with one of their first two picks in the draft. These scenarios are far from mutually exclusive as you can never have too many quality defensive linemen. It’s important not to forget about Jaye Howard who failed to make an impact last year but was a fairly well regarded prospect coming into the draft and could always surprise.

#2: A starting quality OLB to go with Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright

This is the second biggest hole I see on the Seahawks right now and I’m not entirely sure there isn’t a viable candidate on the roster at this moment. That says a great deal about this team. Malcom Smith appears to have some talent and impressed me in his brief 3 game stint as a starter last year. Am I comfortable going in to the season with him as the starter though? Not without a serious back up plan. If the Seahawks insist on being boring I’m sure they could bring back Leroy Hill although he is far from the explosive talent he once was. My best guess is Seattle drafts an OLB in either the 2^nd or 3^rd round has him battle Smith for the job, with Smith likely returning to his role as a backup.

#3: A slot cornerback

Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner’s success as a corner tandem is well documented but in the today’s pass happy NFL you need three quality corners on defense. Trufant was fairly underwhelming last year and seems unlikely to be brought back in 2013. Walter Thurmond III is probably capable of playing this role but he simply cannot be counted on to stay healthy. Jeremy Lane is also a player who conceivably could be the guy for this spot but I see him as more of a backup on the outside with his size and lack of elite quickness.  There are question marks surrounding both internal options and a couple interesting guys floating around in free agency (ie. Charles Woodson, Adam Jones, Tracy Porter) but they are probably cost prohibitive for a team that has been spending a surprising amount of money lately. The most likely scenario is Seattle tries to see if one of their two guys can stick as the third corner and takes a chance on someone later in the draft as well, as they are wont to do.

#4: A starting right tackle

This is where the shopping list enters pipe dream territory. Breno Giacomini is almost certainly the starting RT for the Seahawks in 2013. The problem is he’s not very good. He’s probably not the worst starting RT in the league but his inconsistency and stupid penalties are cringe inducing at times. There are some quality OT’s available in free agency at the moment who would represent a significant upgrade (Sebastian Vollmer and Andre Smith jump to mind) but they remain firmly outside Seattle’s price range barring any major cap casualties. Quality offensive tackles don’t last long in the draft so I doubt an immediate starter can be found late in the second round, but you never know. Unfortunately I think Giacomini is the Seahawks’ only realistic option at the moment.

Lists of five are much more aesthetically pleasing than lists of four but I really can’t think of anything else the Seahawks truly need. Quarterback? Check. Runningback? Check. Wide Receiver? Pretty impressive with the addition of Harvin. Tight End? Fine presuming Miller is sticking around, which he seems to be. Even the offensive line is has two Pro Bowlers and quite a few options at guard with upside. The Seahawks have also loaded up on pass rushers and they already had a stacked secondary so I really don’t know what else they would desperately desire. Quality depth is a must and that’s largely what this draft class is expected to provide, but by and large the Seahawks are set. Being a Seattle Seahawks fan at the moment feels like being a spoiled child who can’t even think of what he wants for Christmas because he has everything. Everything can always go wrong at the drop of a hat (and in my experience as a sports fan it does 85-90% of the time) but we are looking at a pretty strong squad heading into the 2013 draft. It’s a good thing I wrote this article now because knowing how well this front office drafts there might be nothing to say on this topic come April 28^th.

This could be a common occurrence with the Seahawks this season, maybe more so than with other teams, if NFL owners vote in a new “head lowering” penalty for running backs .  Pete Carroll has already said the Seahawks are going to remain a “run first” offense.  He may want to change his mind on that one after the first few games if things go the way I’m thinking they could go with this new running back “head lowering” rule.  If you haven’t heard, Roger Goodell proposed a new rule in which running backs will be flagged if they lower their head to use the crown of the helmet like a battering ram.  This essentially means running backs will have to take on hits standing up or risk a penalty.

I was listening to the “Mike & Mike” show this morning on the way in to work, and they had former Dallas Cowboys Great Emmett Smith on the show to give his “NFL Hall of Fame running back” perspective on the new rule.  He brashly said it will make it impossible to play the position of running back.  He claimed there is no way a runner who sees he’s about to have a collision is NOT going to instinctively lower his helmet and his whole body to protect himself.  Smith added, when you are punished for hitting tacklers with your helmet the end result is you’re going to see a lot of guys just step out of bounds rather than try to get more yards.  He thinks it will eventually turn the NFL in to something that resembles “touch football”.   Will this still be “football”?  I say “no”.  Running backs will more resemble quarterbacks at the end of a play, taking a slide to avoid a stand-up hit or meekly squirting out of bounds before the big hits we all know and love.

Now, to be fair, an NFL team of experts, coaches, & former players looked at all the film from last year and only found five instances of this helmet lowering that would have been called under the new rule.  So, while there might be a lot of latitude a referee can give backs on this rule, or there might not be.  The panel admitted it could be very difficult for a referee to fairly call this kind of thing in the heat of a game.  This rule is made for inconsistency in how it’s called, and could be affected by the referee’s angle to the play, his view of the play through other players, the weather, how the other player reacts, and a million other variables.  If NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell decides to push this rule hard, it could really put a crimp on the running styles of the hard-nosed, punishing running backs like Lynch.  A quick review of some “Beast Mode” highlights reveals Lynch does often use his helmet and shoulders and a healthy forward lean to blast people out of his way.  Is this going to make him a magnate for yellow flags?  How could it not?  You could even say Lynch is the kind of runner this rule is designed to punish…errrr…protect.  If there is one rule they could have come up with (other than making the QB scramble illegal) that could put the brakes on a potential Seahawks championship season, this is it!

For other teams with finesse style runners this probably wouldn’t be an issue.  Teams with backs that run in a style more like Walter Payton, Eric Dickerson, or Barry Sanders will get a break because that style runner very rarely takes on a defensive back.  Teams with backs like Earl Campbell, Jerome Bettis, and yes, Marshawn Lynch could potentially lose some important plays, first downs, or critical scores.  Remember the Seahawks were a HALF GAME away from winning the NFC West title.  One bad call can make that difference.  This WILL affect coaching strategies.  Worse case; I think it’s possible that coaches will get tired of all the laundry thrown at their running backs and probably will move away from the running game as an important force in their offenses.  The NFL will evolve into something like the Canadian Football League, where passing becomes the dominant type of play.  That will be too bad.  I think it will wreck the game as it has come to be known and loved.  The diversity of schemes that combine running and passing is what makes the NFL interesting to watch.

The next question is; will the fans revolt?  Will the NFL be on a path to a slow death because fans will slowly find other things to do than watch a league full of guys running around trying to avoid getting hit?  Will the game become something so foreign to our senses that it becomes a laughing stock?  A quick look at the controversy created by the “defenseless receiver” rule should give guidance here.  There were a lot of cases where a legitimate hit was flagged and great defensive plays called penalties.  The hit Cam Chancellor put on 49ers tight end Vernon Davis comes to mind…  That was a great, legal (as it turns out) hit that should have been called an incompletion and brought on the 49ers punting team  if memory serve me.  The penalty turned it into a 1^st and 10 for San Fran.  The Hawks ended up losing that game by a touchdown.  If victories are seen as not legitimately won, the loss of fan interest could put a serious dent in the NFL’s credibility and viewership.  But then the NFL has survived and thrived amid controversial calls for decades, so maybe it’s nothing to worry about.

Last but not least, will this rule, if passed, affect how Pete Carroll and John Schneider evaluate running backs in the upcoming draft?  Might they hedge their bets that sending Marshawn Lynch to ballet school won’t turn him into a finesse  runner and go after one in the draft?  It seems advisable to have a “change-up” back anyway, but maybe this puts a little more urgency into that kind of pick.  I’m thinking a running back with lots of speed and not a lot of brawn, and the ability to avoid pursuit may be high on more than a few teams draft boards.

In the end it looks like the NFL is changing so as not to appear unconcerned, and to avoid the avalanche of lawsuits that will surely materialize if they don’t “do something” now that they know there is a serious problem.  Here are some things about this rule to consider moving forward:  Will it change the game so much that they destroy the game?  If they do nothing can the game survive anyway?  Will the running back become extinct?  Will they have to make more changes to keep the game interesting?  Who knows?  Finding the answers to these questions may become more interesting to watch than the actual games.  One other thing Emmett Smith said is that people who haven’t played running back at a professional level have no idea what they’re talking about.  Sorry Emmett, but THAT’S WHAT WE DO HERE!

Nov 11, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Detroit Lions defensive end Cliff Avril (92) sacks Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder (7) in the first quarter at the Metrodome. The Vikings win 34-24. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle Seahawks General Manger John Schneider went on the John Clayton Show, which airs on 710 ESPN Seattle every Saturday morning, and talked about the role Cliff Avril would play for Seattle. A link can be found at the bottom of the article to the interview.

Schneider mentioned in the interview that Seattle plans to have Avril play the LEO position that Clemons played before his injury and weak-side (WILL) linebacker which K.J. Wright currently fills.

The comment about Avril playing the WILL Linebacker position got me to thinking. How can a 6’4”, 260 pound defensive end play linebacker in a 4-3 defensive system? The player that comes to mind is former Seattle Seahawks linebacker Julian Peterson.

Julian Peterson first played in Seattle during the 2006 season after spending six years with the San Francisco 49ers. Peterson was given a seven-year deal worth $54 million. Peterson was not your typical 4-3 linebacker. His job was to get in the backfield and sack the opposing quarterback as many times as possible. Peterson filled this role nicely with Seattle. Over three years he managed to collect 24.5 sacks. Keep in mind that Peterson was not put in the position of defensive end. He played strictly the strong-side/outside linebacker position. While Avril would be coming from the opposite side that Peterson filled and taking over for K.J. Wright it could allow Wright to slide over to the other side of the field.

I believe Seattle will put Avril in this role in specific passing downs. I do not believe he will be a three down linebacker as Peterson was. He struggled against the run in Detroit.  Avril stands at 6’3, 260 pounds and ran a 4.59 so the explosiveness to come off the edge exists. Avril playing outside linebacker also gives other pass rushers such as Bennett, Clemons, and Irvin the opportunity to all play at the same time.

If you put the numbers in perspective, Avril has been a far more productive player than Peterson was. Keep in mind, though, that Avril had a great supporting cast around him playing in Detroit. Avril has played a total of 73 games during a five year career while collecting 39.5 sacks (.54 sacks per game). Peterson during an 11 year career played 158 games and collected 51.5 sacks (.32 sacks per game). Peterson’s play did take a deep decline after leaving Seattle via trade to Detroit, which affected his sack numbers. However, if you take Avril’s sack numbers and average it out per year, that is at least eight sacks per year and I believe playing for one of the league’s best defenses he can increase those numbers in Seattle.

No one can guess how Avril will truly be used and if the WILL linebacker position will work out but I’m certain Carroll will find a spot for him to cause pure mayhem on opposing quarterbacks.

Link To John Clayton’s and John Schneider’s interview.

Percy Harvin – Is only 24, runs a 40 in 4.3 seconds, does a great job of getting yards after catch and is an accomplished kickoff return runner.

Percy Harvin – misses a lot of practices, unfortunately suffers from recurring migraines and has already exhibited a tendency to be a bit of diva.

So what does this mean for the Seahawks?

It means that if he passes his physical, Harvin will be a speedy receiver with good hands, excellent running instincts and a desire for the ball. It also means that Harvin may continue to miss practices due to his migraine issues and on a team with an “always compete” team mentality, missing practices means Harvin may not successfully compete for as much starting time as he would like.

Going up against Rice, Baldwin and Tate, who have all shown exceptional growth and stability through the 2012 season, Harvin may find himself having to work harder than he has before to get playing time.

While I’m okay with the picks we’ve given for Harvin, I’m not “all in” this trade. But I’m open to the possibilities of the Hawks making it work. Some keys to success for Harvin with the Seahawks will include:

• Adapting to the always compete mode (Doug Baldwin is embracing the opportunity to compete)
• Limiting kick return opportunities (let someone else be cannon fodder, although if rumors of trading Leon Washington are true, hopefully Pete and John plan on picking someone up in the draft)
• Committing to as many practices/mini camps as possible, both for physical conditioning and developing relationships with his QB and fellow receivers
• Understanding that great physical talent still requires considerable practice and application. Ask Golden Tate.
• Appreciating the caliber of players he’ll be sharing a locker room with (Russell Wilson has extra meetings with his receivers and oline… for a reason)

Ultimately, Pete and John are pretty smart guys. I’m pretty confident that they will limit the guaranteed money to Harvin and build in lots of incentives for him to reach for. And I hope he does rise to the occasion. He really needs to appreciate this opportunity for what it is.

Harvin could be great. But he’s not great yet.

January 24, 2013; Honolulu, HI, USA; NFC free safety Earl Thomas of the Seattle Seahawks (29) runs with the ball during practice for the 2013 Pro Bowl at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

With the upcoming draft dominating the NFL news landscape in recent weeks I started thinking over the last few Seahawks draft classes. On Monday I looked at John Schneider’s and Pete Carroll’s preferences and today I will examine the impact their draft picks have had over the last three years. Generally, I consider it too early to judge the quality of these drafts in their entirety. I do think it is fair to look at the production accumulated by unit for the classes under this regime and demonstrate the early impact they have had for the Seahawks. My initial assumption was that the draft classes of 2010-2012 have been very productive for Seattle and that proved to be entirely correct.

Let’s start with the very successful 2012 class:

Offense

In a defense-heavy draft these numbers were accumulated by, with the exception of J.R Sweezy’s playing time, Russell Wilson and Robert Turbin, both of whom were major contributors this year. Given the general success of Wilson’s rookie year, the number that really stands out here is the 843 rushing yards provided by these rookies. Those yards served as quite the compliment to Marshawn Lynch’s 1,590 yards as the feature back. The raw production is very good and probably trending upward for both players in the future.

Defense

Despite the fact the Seahawks drafted seven defensive players in 2012 almost all of the defensive production comes from Bobby Wagner. That being said, the Seahawks’ defensive rookies proved valuable in situational roles. Most notably Bruce Irvin and Greg Scruggs rushing the passer and getting 10 combined sacks. Also of note were performances by rookies asked to move up the depth chart (e.g. Jeremy Lane starting during Brandon Browner’s four game suspension). These numbers are already respectable and figure to improve, especially if Bruce Irvin continues to grow as a player.

In the 2011 draft class, we see a group of players that have contributed a great deal, especially on defense.

Offense

These measures of production don’t really include offensive line play and as a result this draft class looks a great deal worse than it is. Even so, the Seahawks’ top two picks in this draft have only combined for 31 of a possible 64 starts on the offensive line, which is far from ideal. James Carpenter has a chance to have a future as a starter in Seattle for years to come if he can stay healthy. John Moffit seems more likely to only provide depth on the line. The only other offensive player from this class, Kris Durham, has already moved on.

Defense

The 2011 draft class was a gold mine in terms of defensive talent. Headlined by CB Richard Sherman and OLB K.J Wright the 2011 draftees have more than held their own in the NFL thus far. Wright and Sherman are both quality starters and Byron Maxwell and Malcolm Smith are excellent depth players who have made plays when called upon. Nothing to complain about here.

Lastly, let’s examine the production the Seahawks have gotten from Schneider’s and Carroll’s 2010 inaugural draft class.

Offense

Russell Okung and Golden Tate are both excellent picks and they make up most of the numbers seen here. Anthony McCoy has done more than most 6^th round picks and Jameson Konz unfortunately never really delivered on his promise. It says something about the drafting acumen of Seattle’s front office when we actively contemplate 7^th round draft picks that never amount to anything.

Defense

These totals are compiled primarily by the safety duo of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor with contributions from Walter Thurmond III and Dexter Davis.

In the overall analysis there are a lot of numbers to chew on. Before I go further I’d like to point out the obvious flaws in them.

Firstly, the contributions of offensive lineman are downplayed because their on-field production is not quantified by the statistics I have used. This is especially unfortunate given the Seahawks have spent two of their last four first round picks on offensive linemen. Although their inclusion in terms of games and games started is significant, looking at these production charts does underplay the importance of players like Russell Okung or James Carpenter.

Secondly, although one could argue that in a way the number of games started by each draft class is the best way to measure their contribution to the franchise, it can be problematic because it prizes quantity over quality. Just because a player started or played in a game doesn’t mean they played well. On the other hand, if the player is terrible he is unlikely to play or start so there is some implication of effectiveness just by appearing in games consistently.

Lastly, by looking at draft picks only the contributions of undrafted free agent gems like Doug Baldwin and Brandon Browner are excluded.

Ultimately, I think the main idea to take from this is that Seattle’s front office has done a good job in selecting players that have provided significant, tangible, and quantifiable production for this franchise. The Seahawks roster has been turned over and completely remade during the Pete Carroll era and the primary vehicle for this overhaul has been the draft. In 2010, 7.7% of the starts made by Seahawks players were from draft picks of the current front office. In 2011 that number climbed to 28.4%, and last year is was 42.6%. More than player statistics, those numbers capture the impact of the last three draft classes. If John Schneider and Pete Carroll continue to have excellent drafts that number will continue growing. Give this duo another three years and we will be looking at a truly homegrown squad, and by and large those are the type of teams that win championships.

Feb 21, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider speaks at a press conference during the 2013 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Interrupting my recent series on free agency I thought this week I would ponder the draft a little bit. With the NFL Combine underway, the focus of the football world is on the upcoming draft and despite the fact the Seahawks don’t have a high pick there is a lot of high impact talent to be excited about. Given that this will be the 4^th draft of the Pete Carroll/John Schneider era I thought it would be a good idea to look at the drafts this duo have put together in order to give us a clue of what to expect in 2013. Although drafting is usually according to need to some degree, Schneider and Carroll seem to actually endorse the “best player available” motto in a meaningful way as opposed to merely paying lip service to it. They have made some picks that have been treated with suspicion by the outside world but largely they have made pretty good picks. I could attempt to evaluate these picks but for the most part it is too early to do so, though some fairly significant successes (Russell Wilson, Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner) are apparent already. Instead, in this article I will examine the structure of their drafts in terms of position preferences and rounds to see if there are any patterns that might help us know what to expect. First, let’s take a look at the offensive players picked by the Seahawks over the past three years by position and round:

*Jamison Konz was initially listed at WR, though to be fair he was more of an intriguing athlete than anything

# James Carpenter was drafted as a tackle although it was always known there was a solid chance he’d wind up at guard.

The biggest number that sticks out here is the total. Only 10 of the 28 players this regime have drafted have been offensive players.  The Seahawks have invested in four offensive lineman and three receivers and very little in the way of backfield personnel, not that Russell Wilson and Robert Turbin are anything to sneeze at. Building from the line out is a fairly well respected and effective strategy so it’s hard to complain here.  7 out of the 10 players listed made at least 1 start for the Seahawks in 2012 and Robert Turbin was a valuable complementary player. Classic case of quality over quantity.

Now let’s take a look at the side of the ball that the Seahawks have been investing so heavily in over the last three years:

When we look at defense I think it becomes pretty clear that John Schneider and Pete Carroll like their defensive backs. The Seahawks have drafted 8 DB’s in the past 3 years, usually later in the draft (7 of those 8 in Round 4 or later). Also Seattle has taken some shots at creating depth in case of a Red Bryant injury by selecting 3 big DE’s in the latter rounds, without much success (although the jury still could be out on Scruggs). Defensive tackles have largely been neglected, a problem rearing its ugly head now, but there have been enough draft picks thrown at this side of the ball that no other position has missed out on an influx of young talent.

Overall, what is the big picture? First of all, this is only three drafts and organization needs did have to be considered so we can take any patterns we see here with a grain of salt and be cautious when making declarations regarding organization philosophies. That being said there is an undeniable focus on defense and the defensive backfield specifically. Interestingly, despite drafting 64% defensive players this front office has spent five picks in the top three rounds on offense as opposed to three on defense. 15 of the 18 players defensive players drafted were selected in rounds four through seven. To me this suggests that due to the fact Pete Carroll runs a somewhat unorthodox defense he feels he is able to draft players that fit his system later as their unusual skill sets can have them falling in the draft.

Ultimately this is all stuff we already knew. We know these Seahawks draft a lot of defensive players overall. We know that this front office has spent two first round picks in three years on offensive lineman. We know they have tended to look for sleeper defensive backs in the later rounds. That was the impression that we all had naturally. However, just because it’s the general consensus it doesn’t mean it’s necessarily right. Looking at the objective figures often shines lights on holes in the public perception. Just not this time. In this case I wasn’t expecting to unlock anything shocking or revolutionary about Seattle’s drafting strategies, and I didn’t. It turns out they were what we thought they were, although in a couple years I’ll be sure to check back and see if this front office keeps its M.O consistent.

The Seahawks/Redskins game left me with a number of observations, mostly positive. However, there are a few scenarios that simply left me baffled with the Redskins ball club. Let’s start with those…

I’m really puzzled at who is actually in charge in DC because it certainly doesn’t appear to be Shanahan. In his post-game interview, RG3 made 2 telling statements regarding who is really in charge on the Redskin team.

1. “I’m the quarterback of this team,” Griffin said. “My job is to be out there if I can play. … I don’t feel like me being out there hurt the team in any way. I’m the best option for this team, and that’s why I’m the starter.”
2. He was then asked what would his reaction have been had Shanahan pulled him against his will for Kirk Cousins. His answer? “I probably would have been right back out there on the field,” he said. “You respect authority and I respect Coach Shanahan, but at the same time you have to step up and be a man sometimes, and there was no way I was coming out of that game.”

Either Robert Griffin the Third believed all the hype and praise heaped on him throughout the regular season made him the expert or Shanahan never utilized his authority at any time since drafting him. You don’t get this far into the post season race with this being the first indicator that the coach doesn’t have his hand on the wheel. Imagine Russell Wilson making a statement like this… yeah, I can’t either. One of the hallmark components of a champion is humility, something RG3 seems to lack and something RW3 has in abundance.

Secondly, who’s asleep at the switch with the field condition? I watched the Mike Robinson cell phone video of the field during the Seahawk walk through and found it appalling, not only the dirt, but the divots and holes in the field. And this isn’t an observation about the Seahawks, but about the field in general. Why would you ask your own players to play on that nonsense? Why would you spend all that money on RG3 and then give him that crap surface to play on? And he wasn’t the only Redskin player that had leg issues… A quick check of the Redskins 1/4/13 injury report, showed 11 of 15 players had foot, ankle or knee injuries. Coincidence?

Perhaps because of this field? This picture was seen on the internet post game showing the comparison between the Redskins and Ravens field just a few miles apart. (Redskins on the right, Ravens on the left) I submit that if owner, Dan Snyder, was concerned enough to travel to Florida with his star QB to get the scoop on his knee, perhaps he should have been concerned enough not to send him out to play in an eroded cow pasture to begin with!

Enough about the Redskins. Now Seahawks!!

So proud of our team for winning yet another road game! So proud of our Hawks for coming back from 14-0 and shutting down the Redskins for the next 3 quarters! There are too many players to mention and I think that’s a great sign that the Hawks are not one dimensional or overly reliant on one player! Lots of weapons, lots of energy!

I think the single most important component to this game is one that we’ve seen all year. I asked Pete Carroll about it midseason and you can read his answers here. I’m referring to the ability of the Seahawks to make adjustments. It hasn’t been that long ago that we had a Hawks team that seemed to script the entire game and either couldn’t implement adjustments or made them too late in the game to win. The fact that this team can make them throughout the game, not just at halftime, is a testament to the coaching staff and bodes well for their plans to continue through the playoffs.

Just a quick note to acknowledge the contributions of Chris Clemons and Steven Hauschka this season. Both were injured in the cow pasture at Fed Ex field and moved to the Injured Reserve list. Additional thanks to Jon Ryan for stepping up to do kick offs. Our special teams squad has been amazing this year!

Off to Atlanta!

#GoHawks

If you’ve read any of my notes here on 12^th Man Rising, you’ll know that I approach football from a passion perspective. I’m in love with the game of football and the Seahawks in particular. I’m not even close to being in the statistical wizard category with my fellow writers. (Although I love reading their stuff!)

But I read this article yesterday and I found it intriguing, especially as we reach the end of the regular season and the pundits are struggling to categorize Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. So let me take this statistical approach and help the pundits look back at what they may have missed with a certain Mr. Russell Wilson.

The article was about Andrew Luck, RG2 and other QBs in their class. The updated Lewin Career Forcast v2.0 lays out a statistical formula for evaluation based on the following criteria:

• Career college games started, with a minimum of 20 and a maximum of 48.
• Career completion rate; however, this is now a logrithmic variable. As a quarterback’s completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger. As a result, the bonus for exceedingly accurate quarterbacks such as Tim Couch and Brian Brohm is smaller than the penalty for inaccurate quarterbacks such as Kyle Boller and Tarvaris Jackson.
• Difference between the quarterback’s BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don’t exactly conform to the “ideal quarterback size.”
• For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. (For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.)
• A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don’t play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.
• Run-pass ratio in the quarterback’s final college season, with a maximum of 0.5.
• Total rushing yards in the quarterback’s final college season, with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 600.

“The biggest question about LCF continues to be the importance of games started. This is still the most important variable in the equation. Any quarterback projection system based on past performance is going to highly value collegiate games started. From 1990 to 2005, it was far and away the most important variable in determining the success of highly-drafted quarterbacks. However, there are questions about whether the rise of the spread offense is leading to number of quarterbacks who come into the NFL with a lot of collegiate experience yet still unprepared for the NFL-style game. Other quarterbacks have come into the NFL with less experience and done very well. The best example of this would be Cam Newton, who seems like the kind of guy who is built to break this system. He started only one year of Division I ball and looked like a huge risk, then put together one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history. Aaron Rodgers is another player who was underrated by the system; given the success of Newton and Rodgers, perhaps we need to consider adding junior college experience to the variable for collegiate games started.”

“It’s important to understand that LCF is meant to be a tool used alongside the scouting reports, not instead of the scouting reports. What matters is not which quarterback is ahead of which other quarterback by 100 points. Instead, what’s important is who has an overall good or bad projection. Scouts still come first and foremost, but this method is valuable as a crosscheck device and should be part of the conversation about quarterback draft prospects.

With that in mind, Here are the projections for this year’s quarterbacks. These numbers represent an estimate for passing DYAR in years 3-5 of a player’s career. The top prospects will be above 1,200 DYAR, and we should avoid quarterbacks below zero. Let’s start with the top two guys, two of the highest-rated quarterbacks in LCF history who will also be the first two picks in the 2012 NFL Draft.”

Robert Griffin, Baylor: 2,530 DYAR Important stats: 40 games started, 67.0% completion rate, senior passer rating rose 45.3 points, 161 carries for 644 yards.

Andrew Luck, Stanford: 1,749 DYAR Important stats: 37 games started, 66.4% completion rate, senior passer rating dropped -0.5 points, 47 carries for 150 yards.

The article goes on to rate other QB’s in the draft:

Nick Foles, Arizona: 1,391 DYAR Important stats: 33 games started, 66.9% completion rate, 43 carries for -103 yards.

Kirk Cousins, Michigan State: 1,362 DYAR Important stats: 38 games started, 64.6% completion rate.

Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State: 1,011 DYAR Important stats: 25 games started, 69.5% completion rate, 26.8 BMI

Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M: 730 DYAR Important stats: 19 games started, 62.3% completion rate, 55 carries for 296 yards.

Brock Osweiler, Arizona State: 248 DYAR Important stats: 14 games started, 60.3% completion rate.

And then… the Asterisk. Russell Wilson:

The Asterisk

Russell Wilson, Wisconsin: 2,650 DYAR Important stats: 48 games started, 60.7% completion rate, senior passer rating rose 64.1 points.

And here is the narrative that goes with this rating:

“I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the ridiculous projection that the Lewin Career Forecast spits out for Russell Wilson. Yes, that projection is even higher than the one for Robert Griffin. No, it doesn’t particularly mean that Wilson is a sleeper prospect. There are a few things going on here that the LCF is just not designed to account for.

First and foremost, the change in Wilson’s passer rating between his junior and senior years is insane. Remember that earlier I noted that Griffin had a larger senior year passer rating increase than any quarterback in our data set? Well, Wilson’s senior year passer rating increase is 40 percent larger than Griffin’s. But does it matter when the quarterback is playing in a completely different offense for a completely different school in his last year of college eligibility? At Wisconsin, Wilson got to pick apart defenses that were concentrating on stopping Montee Ball. At North Carolina State, I doubt opponents were quaking in their boots at the thought of Mustafa Greene and Dean Haynes. It goes without saying that there isn’t another quarterback in the LCF data set who transferred between his junior and senior years.

There’s also the issue of height, another data point where there’s nobody in our data set that can be compared to Wilson. At first, it seems strange that LCF doesn’t include a variable to discount short quarterbacks, but when you look at the data set that went into creating LCF the reasons are pretty clear. There’s no penalty for being 5-foot-11, like Wilson is, because there are no quarterbacks in the data set who are shorter than 6-foot-0. There’s no penalty for being only 6-foot-0 because the two quarterbacks who are 6-foot-0 are Drew Brees and Michael Vick.

Quarterbacks who are Wilson’s height simply don’t get drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, period. The FO master database only includes three quarterbacks who are below six feet tall: Seneca Wallace, Joe Hamilton, and Flutie. That’s a fourth-round pick, a seventh-round pick, and an 11th round pick from 25 years ago. Even if we go all the way back to 1991, the only quarterbacks taken in the first six rounds at 6-foot-0 or shorter were Vick, Brees, Wallace, Joe Germaine (fourth round, 1999), and Troy Smith (fifth round, 2007).

Wilson too will probably be drafted on the third day of the draft, round four or later, which would render his absurdly high LCF moot.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 12 Mar 2012”

I can appreciate that the writer Aaron Schatz didn’t quite know what to make of Russell Wilson. I mean who has a senior year passer rating increase of 64 points? But when we look through the lens of the 2012 Season, we see Russell getting drafted higher than the projected fourth round or later, winning the starting job in training camp and making statistically improbable improvements throughout the 2012 NFL season. Now, on the cusp of week 17, he’s actually being mentioned in the same breath as Luck and RG3 as the potential rookie of the year.

The key word here is “potential” and I submit to you that Russell had that potential all along. Unfortunately, his potential came with an asterisk. Fortunately for the Seahawks and the 12thman, Pete and John ignored the asterisk at looked at the potential.