Dec 30, 2012, Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Golden Tate (81) runs for yards after a catch against the St. Louis Rams during the third quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Today’s game features the Seattle Seahawks flying east to the nation’s capital to do battle with an explosive Washington Redskins team led by superhuman rookie quarterback RGIII. The Seahawks are the favorites heading into this game on the strength of their superior record and the way they closed out the season with a notable victory at Chicago followed by three blowout wins (including one over the #2 seed San Francisco) and a final win last week against St. Louis. 5 wins, 4 of them of the impressive variety, is nothings to sneeze at and it’s no surprise the Seahawks are being labeled as a dangerous team right now. The thing that people seem to be glossing over is that the Redskins won their last 7 games which is an even more remarkable feat. They can’t be taken lightly in this game but nor are they an unstoppable force. The Redskins are the sort of team you’d expect to play in wildcard weekend, a good team with some issues. One of those issues today is Robert Griffin’s knee. Although RGIII is an accomplished passer without his trademark speed he loses a dynamic aspect of his game. However, since it’s hard to discuss the matchup of the Seahawks defense vs. Robert Griffin’s knee without sounding like Gregg Williams I’ll have to turn my attention elsewhere. Instead we will focus on whole players rather than individual joints in the first ever playoff edition of “matchups of the game”.

Matchup #1: Russell Okung vs. Trent Williams

I’ll start here by saying that I am aware of the basic principles of football and the fact that these two LT’s will never see the field against each other. The comparison of the two Pro Bowl tackles in this game is what interests me. Not only were Okung (drafted 6th overall) and Williams (4th overall) compared ad nauseam during the 2010 Draft process but they likely will be during their careers. Most observers at the time saw Okung as the #1 LT prospect available but the Redskins chose Williams instead as he was a better fit for their scheme. Both teams have been rewarded with quality players. Both players are making their first Pro Bowl appearance in their third years in the league after having some trouble staying healthy in their first two years (23 starts during that period for Williams, 22 for Okung). Okung and Williams are both protecting very mobile quarterbacks which, on the surface, seems like a benefit as their quarterback’s legs can bail them out of trouble. In reality scrambling quarterbacks can be infuriating to block for because although they are a moving target to defenders they are the same for blockers and their unpredictability of movement can turn an excellent block into the wrong block in no time at all. Both the Seahawks’ and Redskins’ defenses will be keying on the oppositions running game and as a result there will be opportunities for shots down the field in this game. Whichever one of these men is able to keep their quarterback safer and in a position to hold the ball and make the deep throw might well see their team emerge victorious.

Matchup #2: Richard Sherman vs. Pierre Garcon

I’ve highlighted this matchup mainly for the reason that Richard Sherman already declared that he wasn’t worried about Garcon and I’d like to see him back up that kind of talk. I admire Sherman’s confidence and acknowledge his skill, but to be honest Garcon is the type of receiver worth losing a little sleep over. Garcon played in only 10 games this year, very few of them completely healthy, and put up 633 yards or 63.3 per game. Over a full year that average would have resulted in 1012 yards for Garcon and that’s without considering to what degree he played hurt. Given that 1000 yard receivers don’t grow on trees (there were 19 this year) Sherman will have to pay attention today. Garcon has electric down the field ability and Sherman would be wise to bully him at the line of scrimmage as much as possible. The reason that shutting down Garcon is so essential is that there is such a drop off between him and the next best receiving option in Washington. The Redskins other starting wideout, Joshua Morgan, has put up 31.9 yards a game and a far from intimidating 10.6 yards per catch. Logan Paulsen, the starting tight end, is averaging 19.3 yards per game. The bottom line is if you shut down Pierre Garcon you can cripple the Washington passing game and the Seahawks will be allocating arguably their best player to that exact assignment.

Matchup #3: Golden Tate vs. Josh Wilson

The battle of Seattle’s 2010 2nd round pick and their 2007 2nd rounder should be a doozy. Even though Sidney Rice isn’t 100% (1 catch for 14 yards in his last 2 games) he will still likely draw DeAngelo Hall leaving two “mighty mites” to duke it out on the other side of the field. Tate actually has the height advantage in this one, a luxury he rarely has access to, which might make it easier for him to reel in a jump ball or two down field. He has really emerged this year with 45.9 yards per game, almost twice his career high of 23.9 yards per match. Tate has finally turned his strength and short area quickness into tangible production and is beginning to look the part of a starting WR. If the Seattle passing game is really going to get going Tate will need to be involved but that’s easier said than done against former Seahawk Josh Wilson. Wilson has emerged as a viable starting corner over the last two years in Washington starting all 32 games and averaging 2 INT and 14 PD per year. Adding in a knack for creating fumbles (3FF this year) and the fact he is immensely dangerous with the ball in his hands (you may recall he led the league in kick return yardage for the 2008 Seahawks), Wilson is a nifty player and a formidable opponent. However, he is a formidable opponent Tate will have to best because unless Rice finds his stride again Tate is the #1 option for Russell Wilson today.

This game has the makings of a memorable contest. The Seahawks take to the road looking for their first road win since 1983 (a stat that just keeps coming up this week) against a team that is likely inferior but only slightly so. With the Redskins holding home field advantage I’d say this one is about dead even. An absolute dogfight is in order with two powerful RB’s, two Pro Bowl LT’s and two rookie sensations leading the way at QB. The difference in this game is that Seattle has the elite defense and Washington doesn’t (the Redskins allowed 1144 yards and 143 points more than Seattle over the course of the year). I have faith that Seattle can put some points against a Washington defense that is fairly unimpressive, so all they really have to do is stop RGIII and company. That sounds so simple. I’ve got this sneaking suspicion it’s easier said than done. Whatever the case may be Seahawks fans are in for an exciting day, and with any luck, an even more exciting night.

2) Wear Em’ Out
- On the other side of the ball, the Redskins gave up an average of 378 yards to opposing offenses on the year. This bodes well for a peaking Seattle Offense, and its power run game. While Washington did hold opponents to just under a 100 yards per game on the ground, look for the ‘Hawks to ‘Feed the Beast’, and rely heavily on Marshawn Lynch as well as it’s vertical passing game out of play-action to keep the aging Redskins defense on the field for extended periods of time in the fridgid, bone aching cold of FedEx Field. I would look for Sidney Rice to benefit greatly in this matchup, as he must be frustrated from the lack of looks he received against St. Louis on top of the fact the Redskins pass-D has been giving up an average of almost 300 yards per game. Could be a big game for the Seahawks Wideouts.

3) Mirror-Mirror
- While there are distinct differences in schematics, and approach, the Seahawks and Redskins adopt very similar philosophies when it comes to their offensive game plans. Run the football, utilize their youth and athleticism at the Quarterback position, and maintain field position and game clock dominance. In doing this, both teams have the advantage of having seen a version of what the other team is going to be doing come Sunday, to a degree, in practice. While the Redskins utilize the Pistol formation in most of its read-option packages, the Seahawks Defense will have had a good amount of familiarity in defending this type of offense, as it does so a weekly basis at the VMAC. While both teams can claim to have this advantage, I think it can only bolster a team’s chances on the road in the playoffs.

4) Road Warriors
- The Seahawks haven’t won on the road since 1983. It’s been well documented in the lead up to the game. It’s true, winning on the road in the playoffs, let alone in the regular season, is a tough hill to climb. If the Seahawks have any chance of moving on in the tournament, they’ll have to knock down the 29 year old roadblock that stands in their way in our Nation’s Capitol. One could cite numerous occasions when a Wild Card team has ran the house on the road to end up in the Big Game. The Giants did it just recently. But it’s not commonplace. Not by a long shot. However, this Seattle team has found a new resilience, a new gusto, born in the last 2 drives in Chicago and has been with them ever since. With the Smooth Operator in Wilson at the helm, and a ferocious Defense on the road, the formula for success is in place. It’s up to the Seahawks to execute it.

5) Silence is Golden
- While the 12th Man will be represented with a strong showing in Washington D.C., it will still be a rough go for the ‘Hawks if the 85-90,000+ at FedEx Field get going in a frenzy. As is true with any road game, the deflation of any home team momentum goes a long way to the overall feel and ‘buzz’ of the game. Look for the Seahawks to get things going early with a shot or 2 down the field to muzzle the efforts of the Redskins faithful. A nice completion to a streaking Golden Tate off of play-action on 2nd and 2 would definitely put a hush on the largest capacity venue in the NFL. Hey, maybe the 12th Man will turn it into a home game of sorts for the visiting Hawks. One can only hope…Best of luck to our beloved Seahawks, and all my 12th Men and Women around the world. I 3elieve. HAWKS!!

Both QBs are dual threats; equally dangerous with their legs as well as their arms. They both are accurate, and are high velocity passers. They also both take care of the football, leading to very few turnovers.

The similarities really do end there.

Dec 30, 2012, Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) looks to pass against the St. Louis Rams during the first quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Their running styles are both extremely effective, but they are very different. Russell Wilson is fast, but he’s downright slow compared to Griffin. Griffin has elite straight line speed that is among the best in the NFL at any position. The only Seahawk who’s in the same league as Griffin in terms of pure speed is Earl Thomas.

On the other hand, Griffin (and the rest of the NFL for that matter) just doesn’t have Wilson’s ability to stop, restart, change directions, and juke defenders out of their shoes the way that Wilson does.

The difference can be seen when they drop back to pass as well. For all his improvement, Wilson is still only an average  QB inside the pocket. It’s once he gets outside the pocket, whether a designed rollout or when he’s just extending the play, that Wilson becomes an elite passer.

Dec 30, 2012; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III (10) rolls out during the first half against the Dallas Cowboys at FedEX Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA Today Sports

At this point in their development, Griffin is better inside the pocket, and definitely looks more comfortable when asked to asked to take a traditional 5 or 7 step drop. When forced outside the pocket though, he tends not to try and extend the play, but instead pulls the ball down and takes off as a runner more often than not.

The QBs also tend to prefer different passes. Wilson throws the ball deep on 16.3% of his passes, which is the 2nd highest in the NFL. Griffin on the other hand threw deep on just 9.5% of his passes, which was the 2nd lowest in the league.

Another way to look at it is that much of Griffin’s passing yards come from yards after the catch (YAC). According to football outsiders: “27% of [RG3's] completions failed to gain meaningful yardage towards a new set of downs.” So over a quarter of Griffin’s completions were for minimal gain. Or if you prefer to think of it in another way, According to ProFootballFocus, 61.4% (5th highest) of Wilson’s passing yards come while the ball is in the air, which just 53.2% (21st in the league) of Griffin’s passing yards come while the ball is in the air.

That isn’t meant to be a knock on Griffin, and shouldn’t be taken as one. Griffin actually has a league best yards per passing attempt (8.14) this season, while Wilson was 4th with 7.96 yards per attempt. So while Griffin’s targets aren’t as far downfield, the plays are actually designed in way to try and get the receivers in space where they can run after catching the ball.

So there you have it. While these two QBs might seem similar on a superficial level, they are actually very different when you begin to dig a little deeper into the stats and break down the tape. Then again, there is one more thing that they have in common: both are very very good.

Nov 11, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) passes the ball during the 1st half against the New York Jets at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

Faced with the boredom associated with the Seahawks’ bye week I played with some statistics, as I am wont to do, in order to gauge how our fearless leader Russell Wilson compares to the other rookie quarterbacks in the NFL. This is a banner year for the rookie quarterback with studs like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III as well as two other first rounders who are starting for their teams in Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden. In order to see how Wilson stacked up I decided to combine and average the statistics of the four 1^st round quarterbacks to create a hypothetical quarterback named “Brandrew Griffehill III” to whom I compare Wilson’s performance. Before we jump in, a couple of housekeeping things. Firstly, I’m aware that “Brandrew Griffehill III” is an utterly terrible fake name, but I challenge you to make something coherent out of the four names above. Secondly, because the four rookie quarterbacks discussed in comparison to Wilson have all had their byes they have only started 9 games each instead of ten. As a result I have only used rate stats in this comparison in order to avoid being misleading. Thirdly, I have not included any rushing statistics but it should be noted that Griffin and Luck have both been exceptional rushing quarterbacks and Wilson does lag in this area compared to the field. Lastly, I am not including anything Tannehill does tonight against Buffalo. That being said let’s take a look at the comparison.

A quick look at that table shows that Wilson has been decidedly more effective than our fictional aggregate of 2012 rookie quarterbacks. Wilson has a significantly superior passer rating and completion percentage, suggesting better accuracy than his fellow rookies. The statistic that jumps off the page is the fact that Wilson is throwing touchdowns (5.9%) more than twice as often as other rookie QBs, the importance of which goes without saying. Where Wilson falters is in the yards per game category, but that is mitigated by the fact he is throwing for more yards per attempt. This shows that Wilson’s uninspiring yardage totals are simply a result of part he plays in Seattle’s run heavy offense. The other problematic stat here for Wilson is his interception percentage. To give a frame of reference Eli Manning’s career INT percentage is 3.3% so this is the sort of territory we are talking about. If anything Wilson’s fellow rookies have their INT percentage deflated by Robert Griffin III’s freakish 1.1% mark, which is unlikely to be sustainable. Wilson could stand to throw a couple less interceptions, but to be honest that feels like nit-picking.

This is a silly little exercise but what it demonstrates is that Wilson has more than held his own in his rookie season so far. I am the first to admit that I wanted to see the starting job go to Flynn this off-season but apparently the guys whose job it is to make these decisions are better at it than I am. Shocking. Although Wilson has had his frustrating moments, it is apparent he is making an exceedingly smooth transition to the NFL. In most years he would be in serious consideration for Offensive Rookie of the Year and one of the biggest stories in the league. I’ll happily settle for the quiet effectiveness we are seeing so far.

In my opinion, this move will be disastrous for the Redskins. I’ve never been sold on RG3 as a top NFL QB. I think his ceiling is much lower than people think. He’ll be good, but I doubt he’ll ever be great. Now, I’ll give you that he’s likely to be better than the QB’s currently starting for around 20 NFL teams, so don’t think that I’m expecting him to be a complete bust.

The problem I have is what they gave up for the rights to get him. The Redskins traded 3 first round picks and a 2nd round pick to the Rams. No trade in NFL history has ever involved 3 first round picks. Let that sink in a little. Never. Not for Elway. Not for Marino. Not for Farve.

If you’re a good team, first round picks need to be above average starters to pro-bowlers, and 2nd round picks better also be starters. It’s pretty simple. If you miss in the draft on the first 2 rounds you’re really missing out. The Redskins just traded 4 potential starters, of which 3 you expect to be very good players, for the right to draft a QB who far from a sure thing.

It’s not like the Redskins are just a QB away from greatness either. We’re talking about a team with no weapons on the outside, and sketchy offensive line, and a very average defense. While Griffin will make them better and provide stability in the game’s most important position, he doesn’t make them even close to being a Super Bowl contender. Instead griffin will find himself on a team that will be unable to substantially improve itself for the next 2 seasons because of the trade that brought him there. Luckily they are in the extremely mediocre NFC East, so they might just be able to contend for a playoff birth anyways.

On the other hand, the Rams will undoubtedly become a force in the NFC West because of this trade. They already have their QB in Sam Bradford, so they aren’t missing out on anything by trading down from #2 to #6. Now they’ll have 3 picks in the first 39 this year, and 2 first round picks in both the 2013 draft and the 2014 draft.

Another way to think of it is that in the first 40 picks in this year’s draft, and in first round of 2013 and 2014, the Rams now have 7 picks while the Redskins have just the one pick that they’ll use for Griffin. Clearly one team will get better because of this trade, and the other team will draft a QB.

Miami signed Matt Flynn. This deal makes the most sense. The new coach in Miami was Flynn’s offensive coordinator.

Could Garrard be the next QB to flourish under Mike Shannahan? Credit: Richard Mackson-US PRESSWIRE

Washington DC signed David Garrard. This is just a really good fit. Garrard in Mike Shannahan’s offense is a really great match. Just look at what Shannahan was able to do with Jake Pumber.

Cleveland drafts Robert Griffin III. Griffin is the only NFL ready QB in this year’s draft that wont go #1 overall. Cleveland also has the best draft position to be able to move up and enough to get Griffin.

Seattle signs Peyton Manning. This will either exciting or infuriate just about every Seahawks fan. Signing Manning will be a polarizing move, but it will allow the Seahawks compete for a Super Bowl right now, while slowly developing a potential replacement over the next couple years.

Arizona signs Kyle Orton. The Cardinals need someone who can step in and lead that team in case Kevin Kolb never becomes what they thought he was when they signed him a year ago. I know Skelton showed from promise when filling in 2011, but Orton offers a degree of security that the Cards really need.

Denver Signs Chad Henne. Henne is capable of leading the Broncos if Tebow gets hurt. He’s also young enough that he offers the potential to be a long term solution once the Broncos finally admit that the Tim Tebow experiment is a mistake.

NY Jets sign Jason Campbell. The Jets aren’t ready to pull the plug Mark Sanchez just yet, but signing Campbell will hopefully light a fire under their QB and get him to take the next step forward.

KC Chiefs Draft Kirk Cousins. The Chief have one more year of Matt Cassell, so drafting a player like Cousins now will allow them to use 2012 as a transition year. Cousins isn’t ready to start right away, but should be ready by some point around mid-season.

The big loser in this scenario is Jacksonville. the Jags need an insurance policy in case Gabbart continues to struggle, but in this case they are unable to find one.

Brandon Weeden. Mandatory Credit: Chris Morrison-US PRESSWIRE

Regardless of the recent news on Peyton Manning being ‘cleared to play,’ his arm strength has still not been cleared by any NFL team and I would list it as highly questionable. So in light of this suspicion I decided to take a look at some quarterbacks available in the draft. One who caught my eye was Brandon Weeden. Now before you decide to quit reading already just know I still grimace every time I think of him as a possibility. Nevertheless he is still a curious option the Seahawks will probably take a look at if he is available in the second round.

Weeden’s negatives are pretty obvious, however there actually aren’t that many of them. The one warning sign he wears like a full body tattoo for all to see is his age. Entering the draft at 28 years old and turning 29 during your rookie season screams don’t pick me. Not to mention it takes at least a year before you’re ready to do anything in the playoffs. That means Weeden would be turning 30 years old by the time we were set to do something meaningful. So assuming he retires around 36 or 37 it means there is really only the possibility of about 5 years where we could possibly make some noise in the playoffs (I’m leaving out a year for aging, pretty ridiculous when discussing a rookie right?). Also besides his age he is not very mobile at all. If I think realistically about the possibility of drafting Weeden I know this problem will definitely deter Schneider and crew. His age and lack of movement are really the only issues I can see preventing us from picking him up.

This brings me to the positives about Weeden. When you get past his age all the scouting and press on him rave about his accuracy, arm strength, decision making, maturity, demeanor, I mean the list really goes on as far as intangibles. That’s why most people in the drafting business see him as a potential first round pick, right up there with Griffin and Luck. He can make throws at all three phases of the game and he can make them accurately with good touch on the ball. This is necessary in the scheme Seattle runs, especially when we break out our four and five wide receiver sets. Furthermore as far as intangibles go Weeden’s failure playing in the Yankees farm system has been a blessing for his quarterbacking (for those that do not know Weeden was drafted in the second round as a pitcher by the New York Yankees) and not only in terms of accuracy and velocity, but maturity level as well. The analysts who have talked with him believe this shows he knows how to handle fleeting success and the disappointments that come with that success. There are a lot of positives with Brandon Weeden it’s just the amount of time he is going to have to develop those positives that will be the problem.

Am I excited the Seahawks will probably have a chance at Weeden? No, although I can’t say I am entirely un-intrigued. If it were not for his age Weeden would be one of the top three quarterback prospects this year. This is why I wouldn’t be unhappy to see him in a Seahawks uniform next season. Also Seattle’s favorite ESPN analyst John Clayton thinks the Seahawks draft Weeden in the second round or potentially in the first if we trade down some. Honestly I have no doubt in my mind that if this were the case he would definitely start next year. Not only is he a great decision maker with a good arm, but he also isn’t afraid to throw the ball like someone we know… Tarvaris!

All in all it is time the Seahawks figure out who our quarterback is going to be. Even if this means going apocalyptic with our draft and giving up everything we have to try and touch a savior in RG3. However, this is probably impossible which is why we are talking about Brandon Weeden instead. The point is if the team has played well enough to be a super bowl contender with an ‘actual’ Peyton Manning at the wheel then they have definitely earned an upgrade at quarterback. The problem is there aren’t many good options out there and a lot of teams need a knight in shining armor to hike the ball right now. Will Brandon Weeden wear that armor for the Seahawks? We’ll just have to wait and see.

By now you’ve already read all about John Schneider’s Green Bay background and trade down philosophy. I wont spend much time on that here since it’s already well known and well documented. The one thing I would add on this topic is that there’s no reason why he’d  want to give up on this philosophy now. The last 2 drafts have seen Schneider draft pro-bowl level talent late in the draft. Moving back in the first round and getting more picks can only be a good thing when Schneider is the one drafting the players, and he knows it.

The other reason why I don’t see the Seahawks targeting RG3 is that he isn’t the type of quarterback the Seahawks want. Now, before you roll your eyes and point your web browser to another site, let me explain what I mean.  (more…)

Who will be the Seahawks QB in 2012?

It seems that the player that everyone is talking about right now is Robert Griffin III. There’s almost no chance that he’s available for the Seahawks by the time they pick in April’s draft, so that means having to trade up. The problem is that there are a ton of teams that need a QB, and only 2 really good one in this year’s draft.

So the cost to move up far enough to get RG3 could get crazy high. Too high perhaps. So let me put the question to you:

Before we jump in to the players, I want to point out that this is done with a scout’s eye. You’ll likely find at least a few websites that disagree with what you’ll read here, but these are my scouting results, and not just summaries of what I’ve read online. I have a surprisingly good track record with scouting QBs, so I’m not afraid to go out on a limb and disagree with the pros. You also wont find a statistical breakdown here, because I think that college stats have very very little to do with a player’s pro prospects, and this is especially true for QBs.

Andrew Luck, Stanford: Luck wont be available in any way for Seattle. Even if the Seahawks offered their first and 2nd round picks from the next 3 drafts, I don’t think they’d be able to get him. He really is that good. He has everything you’d want in an NFL QB: arm, accuracy, field vision, football IQ, everything. If there’s one knock on Luck it’s that he’s not the most mobile QB (He runs like Peyton Manning, and that isn’t a compliment) Luck will be the first overall pick in the draft, count on it. Pro-Comparison: Peyton Manning

Matt Barkley, USC: Let me make this clear: Barkley is way overhyped and overrated. He’s also still pretty darn good. Barkley doesn’t have an elite arm. Passes more than 15 yards downfield are hard on him. He has to change his mechanics to get the ball that far, and it hurts his accuracy. Shorter than that, he’s really accurate. Add in a very high football IQ and renowned leadership skills and you have a solid field general, but he’s not a fit for all offenses. Barkley will struggle in a vertical offense, but he will be outstanding if he ends up in a Homgren-style West Coast Offense. Expect Barkley to be picked in the top 5 of the draft. Pro-Comparison: Matt Ryan  (more…)

I understand that my views on quarterbacks aren’t what you’ll find on other sites and from national guys like Mel Kiper. That doesn’t bother me in the slightest. I don’t do a good job predicting “draft value” like Kiper does, but I do think I do a good job predicting pro success, which is more important in my mind.

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