September 10, 2011; Athens, GA, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks running back Marcus Lattimore (21) runs with the ball against the Georgia Bulldogs during the fourth quarter at Sanford Stadium. South Carolina defeated Georgia 45-42. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

It’s time for the third and final installment of my draft evaluations for the division rivals of our Seattle Seahawks. Obviously, it will take a couple years before we know how this draft will fully work out. These are just my impressions based on my pre-draft evaluations of these players.

The media seems to love the 49ers draft, but that’s rarely a good thing. My reflections on their draft are a little less rosy. The team seemed to be content with mostly finding “bust-proof” players, but in doing so failed to find many high ceiling players as well. It was a very Tim Ruskell sort of draft for the 49ers. And no, I’m not just being a Seahawks homer here. Take a look at the Rams and Cardinals evaluations, both of them were very positive.

Best Pick

This is an easy one, Marcus Lattimore, and it’s not even close. I really wanted Seattle to take Lattimore, and was very unhappy that he went to the 49ers. He likely wont play a down in 2013 as he continues to rehab from his massive knee injury, but he’s going to be a star in 2014 and beyond.

Worst Pick

For me, that would be 1st round pick Eric Reid. It’s hard to be too critical, since he’s going to be a multi-year starter, but when you move up to take a player at #18, they should be a special player, and I just don’t see that in Reid.

He’s a decent player, but I doubt he makes a Pro-Bowl on his own merits, though he might end up getting there a couple times because the 49ers front seven is so damn good. I had three other safeties rated higher than Reid when he was taken.

Without A Position

The 49ers’ selection of Tank Carradine is certainly an interesting one. The real question is, where is he going to play? Tank is built to be a 4-3 defensive end, but the 49ers use a variant of the 3-4. He’s likely too big, and not quick enough to play outside linebacker, and he’s not big enough to play 3-4 defensive end.

From what I’ve heard, the team hopes that he can add 10-15 pounds over the next year and then take over for Justin Smith at DE, but I question if he can add that much weight to his frame and retain the explosiveness that made him worthy of such a high selection.

I’ll admit, I really like Tank. He’s a guy I’d have loved to see in a Seattle uniform, so don’t think that I’m hating on him as a player. That’s not true at all. I’m just not sure how well he fits into the scheme the 49ers run.

Overall Impressions

When a team drafts 11 players in one year, it should be able to get more than two players who are capable of long term contributions. I don’t see that here. Instead, the 49ers played it safe, as if they were afraid to roll the dice and take a chance on anyone. In a way, the Seahawks and the 49ers had very opposite drafts.

Quinton Patton, Corey Lemonier, Nick Moody, Quinton Dial, etc. are all high floor, but low ceiling players. All are capable of contributing right away, but none offers significant upside beyond what they are right now. Good role players? Yes. Eventual starters on a playoff team? I just don’t see it.

The 49ers significantly upgraded their depth, but outside of Lattimore and Reid, I’m not sure they did much else.

Why yes Victoria, that is an excellent idea!

Please let that come true. Please let that come true. Please let that come true.

Worst part of that joke is that, about an hour later, it was actually made by someone at the press conference officially announcing the deal.

Of course, there was a 49er fan who tried to join the party. 

To be fair, Alex is a friend from back when we both were writers for Fansided’s Seattle Mariners site. We give each other crap all the time, he’s not the usual delusional trash-talker. So don’t give him too much crap for it. I know he was joking……mostly.

Of course, there’s also the interesting side story here that Seahawks’ QB Russell Wilson is a paid spokesman for the brand.

I can’t wait to make that joke every time the Seahawks are in that stadium over the next decade to two.

Even NFL Network’s Rich Eisen couldn’t help from making jokes.

Of course, Eisen wasn’t the only media member to get in on the act.

Of couse, I didn’t let this opportunity for silliness go unheeded either. I decided to quickly (and poorly) mock up the 49ers uniforms as if they were wearing jeans. Take a look:

As usual though, there are people out there with better ideas than mine.

Why yes, yes they should. Wouldn’t that be an awkward site on Sundays? I think I might die laughing if that actually happened.

A.J. Jenkins

Aug 18, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver A.J. Jenkins (17) on the line of scrimmage against the Houston Texans in the fourth quarter at Reliant Stadium. The Texans defeated the 49ers 20-9. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco upgraded their wide receiving corps in the NFL Draft by selecting Quinton Patton of Louisiana Tech in the 4th round. Had Patton not been available the Niners may have stayed away from the position at that spot in the draft, but he was, much to the presumable chagrin of 2nd-year receiver A.J. Jenkins.

After being selected in the first round (30th) of the 2012 NFL Draft by San Francisco, Jenkins failed to contribute at all during the season, playing in three games on not making a single catch after pre-season. But he figured to become much more active this year as the 4th or 5th receiver mixed in with Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Mario Manningham and Marlon Moore. Boldin and Moore came over via trade and free agency, respectively.

Patton offers the Niners a bigger option and a better route runner, so it’s another hurdle that Jenkins has to hop for playing time if he wants it. If Jenkins’ becomes obsolete in the offense again this season, it might be trade-time for Jenkins to release some cap space on a loaded and highly over-paid roster. That’s if he makes the roster in the first place, which I think he has to.

Then again, this could be the motivation that Jenkins needs to really step up his game. At this moment though, he’s in a precarious position, probably banging his head against a pillow at night.

Craig Dahl

Dec 30, 2012, Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Golden Tate (81) runs for yards after a catch in front of St. Louis Rams safety Craig Dahl (43) during the third quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Veteran Craig Dahl is in a little bit different boat for the 49ers, but the same principle applies. Dahl was brought on board from St. Louis after Dashon Goldston packed his bags in free agency to head to Tampa. Originally he was  said to be in the competition for the starting replacement job alongside Donte Whitner. But then San Francisco changed the game this past weekend by moving up 8 spots to draft Eric Reid of LSU in the 1st round.

Reid will be the starter on opening day and Dahl, if he makes the roster, will be more of a watch-from-the-sidelines type of guy. He could end up a winner by default at the end of the season though, if he does indeed make the roster and San Francisco holds up the Lombardi Trophy for their 6th championship in 2014.

Sep 23, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin (12) gains 14 yards on a pass play as he passes by San Francisco 49ers safety Dashon Goldson (38) in the fourth quarter at the Metrodome. Vikings win 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

First a disclaimer. I’m not in any way comparing Boldin to Harvin athletically. There is no comparison there and I understand that. Of course Harvin is a better pickup overall and, in terms of “sexy personnel moves,” looks better than Boldin by a mile. Also, I’m not necessarily saying that the two will have equally productive seasons. (Personally, I think they will.) Again, I am comparing the all-inclusive position pick-ups.

Seattle gets an A+ because Harvin makes Seattle better at three different positions and is one of the most explosive, game-changing players in the NFL at all of them. He makes the Hawks better in every offensive phase of the game. He also gives Seattle exactly what they were missing in the receiving corps, which is the more important mark for that grade.

Meanwhile, San Francisco gets an A+ at the position because of what they get in Boldin compared to what they gave up (a 5th round draft pick). Also, Marlon Moore will add nice depth to their already solid rotation. Moore hasn’t done much in his NFL career, but I watched enough of his games at Fresno State to project that he’ll break out in the next year or two. If you consider what Boldin adds to the San Francisco receiving rotation of Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham (albeit returning from injury), Vernon Davis, and A.J. Jenkins, I feel my point is driven home.

Here’s the kicker. If you insist on doing a head-to-head comparison and believe that Boldin isn’t as productive, or is somehow an entire grade or two lower than Harvin because of his age, the numbers don’t support you at all. Anquan Boldin started all 15 games he played in last season. He had 65 receptions, 921 yards (14.2 average) and 4 touchdowns. That includes a Super Bowl performance with 6 receptions, 104 yards, and 1 touchdown. Percy Harvin played in nine games and started eight of them. He had 62 receptions, 677 yards (10.9 avg) and just 3 receiving touchdowns.

What stands out about those numbers and some other stats?

• Boldin, even at 32, can stay healthy throughout the season. While Harvin claims to be 100% healthy this off-season, he was hurt a few times in 2012 and played in only 9 of 17 football games.
• Boldin’s per catch average is significantly higher than Harvin’s. With only three more receptions, Boldin has nearly 250 more receiving yards, dispelling the myth that Boldin isn’t a down-field receiving threat. Screw the 40 time! Boldin can get down the field and use his size in extraordinary fashion to fend off defenders. He also has tremendous hands as he hasn’t fumbled once in the past two seasons. Harvin has fumbled four times.
• Percy Harvin’s best season was two seasons ago when he totaled 87 catches for 967 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, his yards per reception were still relatively low for a player of his caliber (11.1). In fact Percy Harvin’s per catch average has gone down in each of his four NFL seasons. Conversely, Boldin is about to start his 11th season and two of his three best per catch averages have been obtained over the past two seasons. Harvin hasn’t beat either of those numbers, ever.
• The longest touchdowns in 2011 and 2012 for Boldin were 56 and 43 yards. Harvin sits at 52 and 45, respectively.
• In 2011, with 30 less catches, Boldin ended the season only 80 yards behind Harvin (967 to 887).

Feb 3, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Anquan Boldin (81) is tackled by San Francisco 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers (22) in Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Granted, in the open field there are few better than Harvin. Boldin can’t touch the breakaway speed that Harvin possesses. Obviously the two don’t compare athletically at this point and I think that Harvin is perhaps the only player in the NFL who provides an A+ grade to the Seahawks’ offensive roster. I’ve watched both play many, many times over the past two seasons and folks, Anquan is every bit the receiver Percy is. For San Francisco and Colin Kaepernick, it’s also worth noting that Boldin gives them the only type of receiver that typically gives Seattle problems, big and physical at 6’1″, 220 pounds. Just look at Julio Jones’, Roddy White’s, and Tony Gonzales’ performances against Seattle.

To take it one step further, in 2012 the threat of Boldin and Ray Rice made teammate Torrey Smith virtually unstoppable down-field. Smith reeled in 49 catches for 855 yards (17.4 avg) and 8 touchdowns. If you think Crabtree and Davis were dangerous down the field with Frank Gore at running back, look out, because Boldin just bumped their value up as well.

Quite frankly, to say that Boldin (and you can also include Marlon Moore as a bonus depth pick-up) is anything less than an A+ addition to the 49ers’ receiving corps tells me that you haven’t watched him play, haven’t seen the numbers or perhaps you’re just unreasonably biased.

Oh, did I mention Anquan Boldin has two Super Bowl rings?

Go Hawks!

Sep 1, 2012; Morgantown, WV, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith (12) reacts after a touchdown in the first quarter against the Marshall Thundering Herd at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

One of the best things about this time of year, and my role here at 12thMR, is getting invited to participate in mock drafts with draft experts from around the country. This week, I took part in a 2 round mock for FPFootball.

There were 8 people involved, one picking for every team in a division. I, of course, was picking for the teams in the NFC West.

Picking for teams other than the Seahawks in a draft like this was an interesting challenge. I tried to prepare and make sure I knew what each team needed and the types of players they prefer, but I doubt the fans of those teams will like the decisions I made.

I can say that I took picking for our division rivals seriously. A lot of these picks are ones that I hope they don’t make when the real draft finally gets here in April.

Take a look. And be sure to click the above link to see how the entire 2 round draft unfolded. Let me know in the comments how bad I did.

Cardinals

Strategy: Fix the offense, especially the offensive line.

Drafted Players: QB Geno Smith, OT Terron Armstead

The original plan was to select OT Eric Fisher at #7, but he came off the board before then. That also meant that when Geno Smith dropped to the Cardinals it became a no brainer.  They need a franchise QB, and he’s likely the only one in this draft class.

Besides, the Cardinals were able to draft Terron Armstead in round 2. He’s a bit of a project compared to the first round tackles, but he has a high ceiling and will be better than the embarrassingly bad tackles who played the position for Arizona last season.

Rams

Strategy: Get Sam Brandford some weapons

Drafted Players: WR Tayvon Austin, S Jonathan Cyprien, TE Zach Ertz

Austin provides the Rams with instant upgrade for the offense. He’s not a classic route runner type wide receiver, but he’s still a dynamic athlete that will help Bradford. Ertz was the best player available in round 2 and made too much sense not to select. I know the Rams signed Cook in free agency, but he’s almost exclusively a receiver and offers nothing in terms of in-line blocking. Ertz adds an element that is missing in the offense, as well and just being an overall talent upgrade for the roster.

Jonathan Cyprien is a pick that will likely get some “what the heck?” comments. After Austin was taken, Cyprien gave me a chance to change the script by taking who I thought was the best player available. Safety isn’t a huge need for the Rams, but getting Cyprien gives them a young safety to pair with their young CBs and D-line as they build that defense for the future.

Seahawks

Strategy: Seahawks only have 1 pick in the first 2 rounds. Make it count by getting a playmaker.

Drafted Players: Khaseem Greene, OLB – Rutgers

Greene was a player I didn’t think would be available at #56. He’s an outstanding OLB who, like the other starting LBs in Seattle, is versatile enough to play multiple LB spots. Good against both the run and in coverage, Greene would give Seattle one of the best 4-3 linebacking groups in the entire NFL. I was more interested in getting a starting 3-tech DT, but none were on the board that I was comfortable taking at this spot.

49ers

Strategy: Fix the secondary, especially safety.

Drafted Players: S Matt Elam, CB Desmond Trufant, WR Quinton Patton

Elam was the best safety on the board, and will start right away. Trufant further upgrades their secondary, which is the closest thing to a weakness you’ll find in the 49ers defense.

Patton at the end of round 2 was good value, and provided them with another option at WR, where they need additional talent around their young QB. Thought about taking TE Travis Kelce here to replace the recently departed Delanie Walker, but Patton was above him on my draft board and also filled a need.

Feb 3, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) celebrates with the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the San Francisco 49ers 34-31 in Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl proving yet again that regular season records mean little in predicting the playoffs. By translating a 10-6 record in to a 4-0 playoff run, the Ravens have made history by becoming the first team in history to win a Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers.

When NFC West football coaches, players, and fans look back on this season, the biggest lesson might be, “Make sure to show up to play in the first half of playoff games.” While both the Seahawks and 49ers looked as talented as any team in football this year, their habit of digging themselves in to a hole and relying on perfect execution late in games backfired. Instead of the NFC West holding a Lombardi Trophy, the 49ers finish the season more closely resembling the team that couldn’t beat the Rams than the team that was predicted by many to win it all.

In my last article I predicted that the Ravens would pass to set up the run. As it would turn out, the Ravens rushing attack was never a factor at all. Luckily for them, they scored their three offensive touchdowns on pass plays. They ended the game with only 93 rushing yards, and averaged a measly 2.7 yards per carry. On a normal day, that would not be enough to move the chains.

However, especially for Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco, this was not a normal day. His three first half touchdowns were enough to bury the 49ers in a deep hole. They were also enough to set a new NFL record with 11 touchdown passes in a single post season without an interception.

Flacco’s first pass was thrown to the middle of the end zone to Anquan Boldin who found a pocket between two defenders. The next touchdown was a 1-yard pass to Dennis Pitta who calmly spiked the ball. The body language of the Ravens squad exuded confidence. The third touchdown made people stop and look. It was a 56-yard completion to Jacoby Jones, who caught the ball in the air, fell down, and got up in time to elude San Francisco defenders on his way to the end zone.

With the possession of the ball to start the second half, the Ravens were in good position with a 21-6 lead at halftime. By the time Jacoby Jones returned the opening kickoff 108 yards for a touchdown, things were looking great.

Feb 3, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; Power out in half of the dome in Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY Sports

It looked like a good old fashioned Super Bowl blowout, until, of all things, the power went out in the Super Dome. While the power outage delayed the game for 34 minutes, it is impossible to judge what effect it had on the two teams. Some say that the 49ers benefited by being allowed to regroup and kill Baltimore’s momentum.

It could be just as easily presumed that Baltimore benefited from the blackout, by being allowed to regain some energy that allowed them to withstand the onslaught that was soon to come. In the end, the real beneficiary of the power out was probably the bar owners across the world who kept their patrons drinking for an extra half hour. At the end of the unexpected intermission, the game really started to get competitive, and turned in to what many called an instant classic.

Colin Kaepernick, who was flustered and ineffective early, suddenly was able to connect with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. Both receivers topped one hundred yards, and Crabtree hauled in a touchdown. The other two 49er touchdowns were run in by Frank Gore who ran for a game best 110 yards, and Kaepernick who celebrated his touchdown run with a highly predictable kiss of his tattoo.

While the touchdown brought the 49ers to within a field goal of the Ravens, perhaps Kaepernick’s celebration was a bit premature if not entirely unnecessary. The Ravens would go on to build their lead to 5 on a Justin Tucker field goal giving the 49ers time to take the lead.

Feb 3, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree (15) reaches for the ball on fourth down in the fourth quarter against Baltimore Ravens safety Ed Reed (20) in Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

However, Baltimore’s defense held tight on a four-down goal line stand that included one controversial non-call in the end zone on a ball thrown to Michael Crabtree. While Jimmy Smith clearly had a handful of jersey, Crabtree was also engaged in contact. Being that it’s a Super Bowl, I’m a big believer in letting the players play, and saving the flags for obvious penalties, like the illegal formation that stalled a promising opening drive by San Francisco.

After turning the ball over on downs, San Francisco’s defense was able to hold the Ravens to a three and out. The Ravens, who had faked a field goal earlier in the game, pulled another unorthodox special teams move. With twelve seconds left, the punter, Sam Koch, scrambled around in the end zone for eight seconds before running out of bounds giving the 49ers a safety and two points.

The score tightened to 3 points, but with four seconds left on the clock, a field goal was not a possibility. Instead of punting from the end zone with 12 seconds left, the Ravens were able to kick off with four seconds left. There were no repeats of the music city miracle as Baltimore’s kickoff team found the ball quickly, and made the winning tackle as time expired.

It was a fitting end to an exciting season of NFL football. The Ravens have some questions surrounding an aging defense, and a free agent quarterback, but have been consistently competitive over the years. The 49ers also look like they’re built to compete for years to come.

Feb 3, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) celebrates with the cheerleaders after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots, and Denver Broncos all exited the playoffs with unfulfilled expectations. Expect them to be in the thick of the hunt next season. But, until then, The Baltimore Ravens deserve to hold their well-earned title of NFL Champions.

Jan 31, 2013, New Orleans, LA, USA; General view of the downtown New Orleans skyline and Benson Tower and Mercedes-Benz Superdome in advance of Super Bowl XLVII between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The match up for Super Bowl XLVII is incredibly difficult to call. Both teams have overcome adversity, and both teams have weaknesses. In fact, I don’t totally trust either quarterback, or defense. Baltimore shut out the New England Patriots in the second half of the AFC Championship game, but San Francisco runs a totally different offense. San Francisco plays physical, but their defense almost let the Atlanta Falcons run away with the game early on in the NFC Championship game.

As for the quarterbacks, Joe Flacco has won playoff games in each of his seasons in the league, but he has also lost playoff games in each of those seasons. Colin Kaepernick has great skills, but he was shut down by the Seattle Seahawks in a prime time match up earlier in the season.

Both teams also have questions on special teams. San Francisco’s place kicker, David Akers, has missed several field goal attempts. The Baltimore Ravens, on the other hand, have a better kicker in Justin Tucker, but have been known to blow coverages on kick offs and punts.

In the passing game, The Ravens have a slight edge with their deep threat of Flacco to Torrey Smith. Anquan Boldin, and Dennis Pitta are solid, but The 49ers have the better overall receiving corps with Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, and Vernon Davis.

Jan 12, 2013; Denver, CO, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) catches a pass for a touchdown under pressure from Denver Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey (24) in the second quarter during the AFC divisional round playoff game at Sports Authority Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Both teams are solid in the run game. Baltimore’s Ray Rice is the top rusher in the playoffs this season with 247 yards. However, Frank Gore is number three with 230 yards in one less game. Right behind him is San Francisco quarterback Colin Kapernick has put up a jaw-dropping 202 yards rushing in his first NFL postseason.  183 of those yards came in one game against the Green Bay Packers.

Historically, both teams boast impressive records. San Fransisco is undefeated in five trips to the Super Bowl, and Baltimore has won one Super Bowl, and holds the best post season record of any team in history at .650. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco also has the most wins away from home of any quarterback in history at six.

San Francisco’s last Super Bowl victory was in 1995. Baltimore’s was in 2000. Because the 49ers history is much older than the Ravens’, I don’t see that playing any part in predicting this game. While they still have the mystique of being the 49ers, they are only three years removed from being one of the most underachieving teams in football. At the same time, the Ravens have been in the thick of the hunt for the better part of the past fourteen seasons.

In the previous round, both teams beat pass-first teams to get to the game, so it’s hard to tell how either will react to each other’s run-first attacks. But, it might be fair to say that the game will go to which ever team manages to pull off the first big pass plays, and if it comes down to that, my money is on Joe Flacco.

Both teams dodged bullets to get to the super bowl. The Ravens had a miraculous comeback against the Broncos, and the 49ers mounted an impressive come back against the Falcons. That should indicate that this game will be competitive until the end, even if one team gets off to a quick start.

On the line, the edge should go to San Francisco’s defense vs. Baltimore’s offense. Running the ball will be a challenge.   So, I expect Baltimore to pass early to set up the run. Don’t be surprised if they take a shot at the endzone on first or second down of their first drive if they are not trailing.

Jan 20, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Frank Gore (21) scores on a touchdown run past Atlanta Falcons strong safety William Moore (25) during the fourth quarter in the NFC Championship game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco, on the other hand, has to hope that their read option offense has enough spark to confuse a veteran Ravens defense led by Ray Lewis who may have lost a step in terms of speed, but still reads an offense as well as anybody in history. I expect the Ravens to minimize Kaepernick’s rushing attack forcing Frank Gore to provide the bulk of the ground yards. Meanwhile, Kaepernick will have to rely on his arm, the major factor that set him apart from his teammate Alex Smith. Expect Gore to have a big game, and expect Kaepernick to air it out.

In the end, I believe that the Ravens’ experience, will outmatch the youth of the 49ers. The Ravens have spent years deliberatley improving their offense. The plan was to balance out their great defense to have a shot to win a super bowl. Now that they have made it back to the dance, I expect them to show up with their laces tied tight, and ready to rumble.

Ravens: 24 49ers: 17

About 2 years ago, I started a massive project looking at tons of different stats and looked for correlation to winning. The result, after months of work, was a mathematical model of how each thing a team does that effects winning. I’ve parlayed that knowledge into a formula for that determines a “power” level for each team based on their stats. There’s no popularity contest, just a picture as to which teams are best in the areas that correlate highest to wins.

A look at the numbers shows a distinct advantage for the 49ers. San Francisco ended 2012 as one of the 4 “elite” teams, while Baltimore was in the larger 2nd tier of “good” teams.

The 49ers also consistently performed under their season averages defensively after Justin Smith got hurt, while the Ravens though showed solid improvement the last few weeks after changing offensive coordinators. This suggests that the gap this week is likely smaller than it appears in the chart below.

SF has a major advantage in terms of yards per play both offensively and defensively. That shows up in the points against, but doesn’t in terms of points for. The 49ers surprising do a poor job of turning offensive success into points (at least on a statistical level) So while their offense is better, the Ravens get approximately the same points per game from their efforts. Part of this, but not all, can be attributed to the troubles of kicker David Akers.

Baltimore has a fairly decent advantage on special teams. Its the one area where they have an advantage which is statistically significant, but it is an important one. A big kick return, or a missed FG by Akers could be enough to negate the other advantages that the 49ers possess since the teams are close in overall rating.

Both teams were +9 in turnover differential. This means that both teams were good, but not great, at both getting takeaways and not turning the ball over. Neither team’s defense lived and died by their ability to get turnovers. It would be very uncharacteristic of either team for turnovers to end up having a huge impact on this game.

The difference in rating, with the neutral field factored in, suggest the 49ers winning by approximately 6 points. With SF trending down after the Smith injury, and the Ravens trending up, I’d put the gap between the teams at a FG.

*smaller numbers are better for defense.

We’ve been getting a lot of new readers to the site lately, so I should probably remind everyone how I do these. My goal is to be empirical and objective, so I use the ratings from Pro Football Focus to help me identify who’s the the upper hand in terms on-field performance so far in the year.

This has gotten to be pretty tough on my in terms of predicting the Seahawks offense. Their overall ratings are still pretty bad, but they’ve been actually been pretty darn good the past weeks. So what do I use, the recent ratings, or the overall rating? it’s kind of a catch-22, since I think the Seahawks are better than their overall rating show, but not likely to live up the their ratings from the past 2 games. It puts me in a real bind, but I’ll do my best.

When the 49ers have the ball

The 49ers have the highest rated offense in the league now (94.5), held up almost entirely by their run blocking (58.8). It’s not the only thing they do well, but it’s the only thing in which they are elite. The rest of their offensive ratings are all on the good side of ledger, so there’s no huge weakness.

The Seahawks on the other hand have the league best defense, and 2nd place isn’t anywhere close. The Seahawks run defense is elite in it’s own right with a 36.8 rating, but that still less than the 49er running attack. This is going to be a tough test for the Seahawks, but not one in which they are incapable of wining.

If the 49ers have to pass the ball, the Seahawks should have a huge advantage. The 49 pass rush (9.1) isn’t likely to offer too much resistance to the Seahawks pass rush (44.2). Combine that with the Seahawks top 3 pass coverage rating (16.2), and you have the makings of a long day for Alex Smith.

When the Seahawks have the ball

As I said above, this section is really tough to write right now. Had the Seahawks played like they had the last 2 weeks in ever game, the offense would have a 72 rating and would be the league’s #2 rated offense. Conversely, had the last 2 games been like the fist 4, the Seahawks offense would be sitting a -26, and be the 3rd from the bottom. That’s a huge swing.

As they sit right now, they are right near league average at 8.1. Even if you remove the -10.4 contribution of JR Sweezy, who isn’t going to play since James Carpenter is now healthy, the 18.5 rating only moves the Seahawks up 2 spots to 15th. I think this is probably the best estimation of where the Seahawks are right now, until Russell Wilson continues his development.

Comparing that 18.5 rating for the Seahawk offense to the 49er defense (38.3) and you’ll see that the Seahawks are likely to have a tough go of it on offense. Not that that is anything new.  Surprisingly the 49er’s defense is entirely one dimensional. Their entire strength is in their run defense (41.8) The rest of the defense is rather ordinary, and combines for a negative value.

Further complicating their problem in this game is the lack of pass rush (-5.3). When Russell Wilson has faced good pass rushing teams this year, he’s struggled. When hes faced teams with poor pass rushing ratings (NE, Carolina, Dallas) he’s been at his best. So while the 49ers stack the line to try and slow down Lynch, Wilson could have some success over the top like he did against the Patriots.

Special Teams

The Seahawk’s special teams remain among the league’s best at 26.6. The 49ers on the other hand, are below average at 13.0. This is a complete reversal of last season, when the 49ers special teams were decidingly better, and were the catalyst in both 49er victories.

The difference between these 2 units is actually fairly large. So I expect another big return or 2 from Leon Washington in this game.

Overall Evaluation

This is one of the those games that could go either way. If the Seahawks stop the 49er running game, they could run away with this game. If not, If Gore and 49ers can move the ball with some consistency, this game has a chance of getting really ugly if the Seahawks start forcing things offensively trying to keep up.

Overall, I think it’s a toss up game, and the data agrees. History tells us that in toss up games, take the home team.

San Francisco 17 – 16 Seattle

Sept. 9, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch (24) is tackled by Arizona Cardinals strong safety Adrian Wilson (24) during the second half at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals beat the Seahawks 20-16. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

           Entering into the 2012 NFL season, it was widely believed that the class of the NFC as a whole, and most certainly for the NFC West, was the San Francisco 49ers. And with a 13-3 record in 2011, who’s to argue that? Returning all 11 of its defensive starters, while adding depth on the offensive line, as well as speed to its receiving corps, one would be remised to not entertain the thought that the 49ers were a shoe-in for a return to the NFC’s elite, and a deep playoff run. And while that’s all very well and good, entering Week 4 of the 2012 season has most experts scratching their head as to the resurgence of this once afterthought of a division.
         Week 1 started off with a rare inter-division matchup, as the ‘Hawks travelled down to Glendale and lost out in a defensive battle, 20-16. Many looked at this as a disappointing effort on the Seahawks part- as most gave Arizona, and its Quarterback carousel, little respect. However, sitting at 3-0, and in most publications Top 10, this team is the epitome of what has become a defensively dominant, offensively efficient division. Many look to the Baltimore Ravens of old as a blueprint for this style of football, and since they won a Super Bowl utilizing it, why not? Kevin Kolb seems to be on the road to redemption, while the Arizona run game sorts itself out, the defense has kept this team undefeated, even beating New England AT HOME. A statement win that helped spark the conversation regarding the new NFC West. The NFC “Worst”, no longer my friends.
         The Seattle Seahawks are 4th in Total Defense (yards per game), Arizona is 10th, the 49ers 11th, and even St. Louis is 19th. The Seahawks also lead the NFL in Scoring Defense, at 13 Points Per Game. The Cardinals are 2nd at 13.3, and the 49ers 11th at 21.7. 3 out of the 4 teams in this division boast top 15 defenses. The Rams, while sitting at 1-2 have been in all of their games, playing right alongside the Lions at home, beating the Redskins, and losing to a tough Chicago team at home. One play goes their way at the end of that Lions game, and you’ve got a one 3-0, and three 2-1 teams. I don’t know about you, but that’s something to be proud of. Talk about transforming an image that just a few years ago was reliant on West Coast Offenses, and “Greatest Shows on Turf”. Most called this division “soft”. And while these philosophies took the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Rams to Super Bowls, the general feeling I gather from the collective NFL is that this new physically dominant, brute force identity is definitely more roundly respected, if not borderline feared.
          The NFL Power Pendulum is a-swingin’ 12th Man. The NFL is no longer shouting from their posts that we’re part of the NFC Worst. Rather, they’re whispering the idea that this could be the NFC BEST. It’s still early in the season, but if the returns are any indication, they might be right.

I simulated the 2012 season 20 times using EA’s Madden 13 in order to get an idea for how that game things this season is going to turn out. Normally I would simulate the entire season at least 100 times for this, but the new version of Madden only allows simulating one week at a time, so I had to stop at 20 seasons purely for my own sanity’s sake. Anyways, here’s how things worked out in the NFC West:

Rams: 3.8 wins

Cardinals: 4.3 wins

49ers: 8.9 wins

Seahawks: 9.4 wins

Obviously, things didn’t look good for the Rams or Cardinals. Neither team made the playoffs even once out of the 20 times I simmed the season. The Rams ended up with the #1 overall pick 4 times, and the Cardinal once. The two teams were in the top 5 of the draft a combined 16 times. Clearly, Madden doesn’t think either team is any good.

On the other end of the spectrum are the Seahawks and 49ers. Both teams averaged more wins than losses. While the Seahawks were more consistently good, the 49ers had the best single season. Then again, they also has more loosing seasons, for whatever that’s worth.

The 49ers won the division 8 times, and also claimed 5 wild card spots. Of the 7 times that they didn’t make the playoffs, they averaged just 6.1 wins, with a low of 5 wins. Their best season was one in which they won 13 games, and then lost in the superbowl to the Patriots.

The Seahawks won the division 12 times, and claimed a wild card spot and additional 5 times. So that’s 17 of 20 seasons in which the Seahawks made the playoffs. Their worst season was one in which they won just 6 games, but that was the only season in which they were below .500. In their best season, the Seahawks won 12 games, and lost in the NFC Championship game to the Lions.

Now, if you’d played this year’s version of Madden, you know that the Seahawks were given no love by the people who rate the players skill levels. In the game, the Seahawks are a bit below average when it comes to talent, so the fact that the Seahawks were consistently good when simulating seasons came as a bit of a surprise.

Now, I want to make sure that everyone realizes that results above are completely meaningless. The Madden franchise, while fun, has never been very accurate about predicting anything.

Helping out this time is Eric Melendez from Niner Noise.

Dec 19, 2011; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith (11) calls a play in the huddle against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the third quarter at Candlestick Park. San Francisco defeated Pittsburgh 20-3. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

Biggest Team Need Heading Into Offseason: Starting right guard

Key Free Agents Retained: QB Alex Smith

Key Player Additions: WR Mario Manningham

Key Players Leaving: Right guard Adam Snyder

Quick Thoughts on Draft: Going after WR A.J. Jenkins with the first round pick was a huge surprise as the team has no options at starting guard who have any previous experience as a starter. 

Quick Thoughts on 2012 schedule: The 49ers’ secondary will tested often this season.  The 49ers will go up against the Packers, Lions, Saints, Giants and Patriots in 2012.  All five teams finished in the top-five of passing offense last season. 

Most Interesting Roster Battle: Running back.  With Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James and Anthony Dixon the 49ers have a crowded backfield.  It will be interesting to see who makes the team and who doesn’t, and where they fall on the depth chart.

Biggest Strength Heading Into 2012: Defense.  The 49ers were completely dominant in all games last season on defense and will only get better in 2012.

Biggest Weakness Heading Into 2012: Right guard.  If the 49ers want to continue their great rushing attack from last season and to improve their passing offense, they need a solid starter at right guard.  Right now, there are not many options to be excited about.

Biggest Question Still To Be Answered: When will safety Dashon Goldson sign his contract?  Goldson is the 49ers franchise tagged player and so far is holding out for more money than what the 49ers offered him in a multiple year contract.

2012 Prediction: 12-4, NFC West division champions.

I’m not sure where to start on my take on the 49ers. They’re a good team, but they were probably the least impressive 13-3 team I’ve ever seen. They’re bringing back all their talent from last season, but they didn’t make any upgrades and there are a number of warning signs that point to them not being able to match their 2011 success. Throw in that the 49ers were the league’s least-injured team in 2011, and that they’ll like see the other side of that coin in 2012, and they really are a tough team to preview.

Lets start with the positives. Their front 7 is scary. Justin Smith probably should have won the defensive rookie of the year award. He had an amazingly dominant year. That is especially true when you realize that move of Aldon Smith’s 14 sacks came on plays where he ran a stunt with Justin Smith, so essentially Justin Smith took out the blockers so Aldon Smith could come in clean. Justin Smith deserved an assist on almost all of those sacks. oh, and the rest of the front 7 is pretty damn good too.

On offense, the running game looks a lot like Seattle’s. Very solid blocking and a premier running back, and great depth behind him too. Combine a solid running game and a solid front 7 on defense, and you’re likely going to win the time of possession stat in almost every game.

Now for the bad. The secondary is very overrated. None of their 4 starters would start in Seattle. They also just paid a lot of money to keep a very average Rogers at CB, which is never a good idea. (Its the equivalent of the Seahawks giving Marcus Trufant a large contract this offseason. Surprisingly similar players when watching the game film.)

On offense, their WR corps is poor at best. They’re entire passing offense predicated on the fact that Randy Moss will suddenly become productive again, after 2 seasons of looking old. Crabtree is rapidly approaching getting hit with the bust label, and first round draft pick AJ Jenkins has looked so bad in practices so far that team doesn’t expect him to get on the field at all until late in the season.

And finally we come to Alex Smith. Harbaugh managed Smith in the best way possible last season. That is, they essentially removed him from the game plan. That’s the right idea what your QB was one of the worst players at his position in the league for the previous 6 seasons. I just don’t see how they can keep on a lid on this barrel of crap for another 16 games without it exploding all over the field. Especially not after the ego laced drivel that’s come out his mouth this offseason. Expect Smith to lose at least 2 winnable games for the 49ers this season.

One more thing (so I guess my comments on Smith shouldn’t have been preceded by “finally”) Much of the 49ers success was because of their record +28 turnover differential. As I’ve shown statistically on this site before, turnovers are a cruel mistress. Over the past 2 decades, teams that are the best at creating turnovers in any given season, are almost always below average at doing so the next season, even with the same players. The 49ers likely wont be able to depend on turnovers to make up for their other shortcomings again in 2012.

I still expect the 49ers to be good, and most likely win the division, but 10 to 11 wins seems like the max for the talent on their roster.

Jan 8, 2010; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Leon Washington (33) heads up field on a kickoff return in the NFC Wild Card playoff game against the New Orleans Saints at Qwest Field. The Seahawks defeated the Saints 41-36. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

I was wondering what I should write this week when I read that the Niners resigned “Pro-Bowl Punter” Andy Lee to a contract extension.  This made me think of the Seahawks’ punter Jon Ryan, a great punter but one who is just a smidge behind Andy Lee in the eyes of the league and fans.  This got me thinking, when are the Seahawks finally going to move out from just behind the Niners and pass them?

Punters are just one example.  Admittedly, Lee’s numbers are better than Ryan’s.  Part of this is due to injuries on Seattle’s special teams unit which was much more dominant in 2010.  Lee averaged just over five more yards a punt than Ryan (44.6 to 39.3), but Ryan is right there. Another example is the position of kick returner.  Leon Washington, who was deadly in 2010, was a shadow of his former self in 2011.  Instead Ted Ginn, Jr., a receiver who couldn’t cut it in Miami, became a star returner for the Niners.  You can blame it on the rule changes if you want, but both had to deal with the same rules.  Ginn returned two kicks for touchdowns (one punt and one kickoff) while Washington had none, and Ginn averaged 2.5 yards more per kickoff and 1 yard more per punt.  It might not seem like a lot, but over many returns it adds up. I hope this is an area that we can improve upon this season.

In the last ten months Seattle acquired two Pro-Bowl tight ends – Zach Miller last season and Kellen Winslow this week.  Miller, unfortunately, had to block most of the 2011 season which didn’t allow Seattle to maximize his potential.  Meanwhile Vernon Davis was resurrecting his career and lighting it up in San Francisco.  This month, Seattle traded for Winslow who is a physical freak, but has some attitude issues that I hope Carroll can resolve.  Seattle lost the tight end comparison with San Francisco in the 2011 season, but they have the pieces to move ahead this year.  Seattle now has two top-tier tight ends and hopefully we can utilize them to stack the box and pass or throw after forcing the defense to show its hand.

At running back, Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch have incredibly similar stats.  Both average about 4.3 yards a carry with just over 280 carries each last season.  Lynch had more touch downs (12 to 8 ) but Gore had more carries for 20+ yards (11 to 4).  Lynch finished much stronger than he started, however, largely due to an offensive line that was finally getting its act together.  If Lynch had played all season the way he played the last third, his stats would blow Gore’s away.  I’m looking forward to watching Lynch go full-on Beast Mode for 16+ games this season.  (I’ve already stockpiled some celebratory Skittles in anticipation.)

You might be asking yourself why I am comparing Seattle to San Francisco and being a little down on Seattle, and those are fair questions.  I hate the 49ers.  (They are right up there with the Stealers and Patriots in my opinion.  I lived in San Francisco for five years and there was nothing I wanted more than to stomp on San Francisco twice a year.)  If I ever hear the fallback argument of “how many rings does your team have” again, I’ll break something.  Both teams, however, are being built around a similar model:  a smash-mouth running game, brutal defense, and quarterbacks that are more game managers than game changers.

San Francisco, however, has managed to turn itself into a Super Bowl caliber team.  You can argue that the pieces were all there and that they just needed a coach that could get the players’ heads on straight.  Harbaugh is a guy that can do that.  Comparatively, Seattle had a roster that was old, injury-prone, and unable of playing to the level that Seahawks fans had come to expect after the Holmgren era.  Pete Carroll and John Schneider are surely turning that around. The Seahawks are younger, more hungry, and, I would argue top-to-bottom talented than the Niners, and I am tired of being just behind San Francisco in the NFC West.

I can see the pieces there, now if only I, as a fan, could just will them into place.  In 2012, I want Ryan’s punts to go just a few more yards than Lee’s.  I want our tight end tandem to have around 100 receptions for 1000 yards and 10 TDs.  I want Lynch to run over defenders the way he did at the end of 2011 all season and smoke Gore’s stats.  I want Leon to return to his 2010 form, rule changes be damned.  And I want to see it showcased in week 1 against Arizona in the desert.  Let’s set the tone right from the beginning.  Based on what the Cards and Seahawks have done in the offseason, there is no reason Seattle should lose that game.

I realize that all Seahawks fans want this, but I needed to vent some frustration that was triggered by the Andy Lee extension headline. It also gave me a reason to dig around in my beloved Excel and stats databases to see just how close Seattle’s key players are to being better than San Francisco’s.  Hopefully some of you have been able to vent your frustration vicariously through this post as well, and I thank you for indulging mine.

Dec 24, 2011, Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch (24) rushes against the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE

Please Welcome new 12th Man Rising Staff Writer Jason Rubin. 

Well, it’s settled. The opponents for the 2012 version of the Seattle Seahawks have been set. The times, venues, and dates are now being met with a flurry of examination, and speculation. Whose schedule is toughest? Easiest? Can you project how many wins, or losses your favorite NFL club is going to be faced with? Is it enough for an NFL Playoff berth? And finally, has your head exploded with this assault of the unknown? Well, here’s one fan who won’t succumb to the traps of trendy prognostication. No No. Not so fast. I’m rolling the crystal ball right onto the floor, leaving it in thousands of tiny little shards of false hope . Let’s take a gander at the schedule, and apply what we DO know in the here and now….

DATE                                                 OPPONENT                

September 9^th, 2012              at Arizona Cardinals 

-          Seahawks haven’t been very successful with road openers in recent history. Add the fact they are 1-5 in Arizona’s new Glendale digs and this game could get dicey.           

September 16^th, 2012                        Dallas Cowboys

-          Ok, this is fun. So, the ‘Hawks haven’t had a lot of success playing the Cowboys over the past few seasons. All in the Big D. However, I think we all remember the last time the ‘Boys came calling at the Clink. A nail-biter of a game transpires to a close win when Tony Romo muffs the hold on the fan favorite “Big Play Babs” 19 yard field goal attempt. Plenty of new names on both rosters, but one in particular, one familiar to the 12th man, will definitely feel it from the hostile home gathering. Seattle welcomes you, Mr. Romo.

September 24^th, 2012                        Green Bay Packers

-          Once again, there’s a lovely back story to another Green Bay-Seattle matchup. Can Matt Flynn become relevant as the ‘Hawks QB, and bury his old team on Monday Night Football? Well, that story goes out the window if T-Jax is at the helm, and Flynn is holding a clipboard. But playing the Pack always carries a touch of sentiment for someone within the Seahawks organization. Oh, and it’s on Monday Night. Love it.

September 30^th, 2012                        at St. Louis Rams

-          Straight up. The ‘Hawks own the Rams. 13 of the last 14. While this team, like all of the NFC West, is up and coming (thank you RG3), they are still 1-2 years away.

 October 7^th, 2012                   at Carolina Panthers

-          Let the Cam Newton show begin for the ‘Hawks. Yes he pretty much had one of the best rookie seasons of any QB, ever. And the Panthers are a dangerous opponent. They lost how many games last year by less than 10 points? But this fan likes to think of the Panthers in one light…2005 NFC Championship game. Yep, it was 6 years ago. Yes, most of the Panthers and Seahawks rosters have been purged. But one notable name remains on the Panthers roster. One Steven Smith. I bet he remembers that day in January, not so many years ago…pull out the game tape, and let Bam Bam spy Cam all day. Greatness.

October 14^th, 2012                 New England Patriots

-          Oh boy. Here comes Gisele. New WR’s coach for the Pats. Oh, and the rest of the members of one of the NFL’s most consistent dynasties. Never an easy matchup and this one is going to be a classic. If you haven’t noticed, this schedule is offering an early litmus test for our young Seahawks. Are they ready for the big-time? Or are we still a year away? This game will answer many questions.

October 18^th, 2012                 at San Francisco 49ers

-          One of the most underrated rivalries in the NFL. This is the first game these two will play during the 2012 NFL season, but in no way is it anything but the continuation of the “Merry Christmas” game from last year. This story is still being told, and with the physical, hot-blooded rivalry that this has become, I find myself tensing up just thinking about it.  A must win to take the division back.

October 28^th, 2012                 at Detroit Lions

-          I’ve always liked the Detroit Lions. Don’t ask me why. But I’ve always been enamored. So this is a fun one for me, as I’m sure it is for most NFL fans. Watching the young, emerging Lions face a young, formidable defense in Seattle will make for a great game. Now, can the ‘Hawks offense match the effort? That will be the key to a mid-season road victory.

November 4^th, 2012               Minnesota Vikings

-          So, the Vikings are rebuilding? So what. Any chance to see our D-Line matchup with one of the NFL’s premier RB’s is enough to tune in to this classic battle. I still remember the game years ago when Hershel Walker led a monstrous comeback at the Kingdome. Always soured my liking for the Purple People Eaters. At any rate, Christian Ponder can always put this game on his resume in his bid to be a seasoned NFL starter. “Played road game in Seattle. Couldn’t hear a thing, so just handed the ball off…”

November 11^th, 2012             New York Jets

-          This game is exciting. I mean really exciting. I will be excited to just have this exciting opportunity to be excited. Oh, Tim Tebow. You and your clean press conferences. Lucky for him I’m packing all the excitement, because his will go right out the window when he steps through the tunnel at the Clink. Exciting.

November 18^th, 2012             Bye

-          It’s been some time since we’ve had such a late bye week. But this will be a perfect time, as they always are, for our team to get healthy for the playoff push. What you got for our record so far 12^th Man? That’s right, 10-0! Niiiice.

November 25^th, 2012             at Miami Dolphins

-          Can’t remember many good games from the ‘Hawks when playing in Miami. 1-5 overall, I believe. Even with a rebuilding team, this is always a thorn in the side. Let’s go down to Miami, pound the ball with Marshawn, and get out of town with a solid Defensive win. We’re due Miami.

December 2^nd, 2012               at Chicago Bears

-          In what has seemingly become an annual matchup for the Seahawks, we find ourselves back in Chicago, where we’ve had relative success. The Bears are always ready for a physical game, and this will be nothing less than the sort. An early December game, in Chicago is bound to bring the elements, and a few bruises to boot. Great matchup.

December 9^th, 2012                Arizona Cardinals

-          Home stretch here. 3 of the last 4 are at home, and against NFC West opponents. Getting off to a good start to our finish is essential here. Home, against the Cards in December will create a ravenous state at the Clink, and it will be needed as we split with Arizona last year, both down to the wire. Who says the NFC West is the worst division in the NFL. I think by Week 14, the pundits will be singing a different tune.

December 16^th, 2012              at Buffalo Bills (Toronto)

-          Hello Canada!! The Seahawks find their last road game of the season at The Rogers Centre, formally known as the SkyDome in Toronto. The last two meetings between these teams have been all Buffalo. And this one gets no easier. With a formidable rushing attack and a young defense, this year’s version of the Buffalo Bills is no less potent, if not more so. A tough matchup on the road before heading home for the final 2 home games of the season.

December 23^rd, 2012              San Francisco 49ers

-          Round 2. Not to take anything away from the other two divisional opponents, but special attention has to be paid to the 49ers for 2 reasons in my opinion. The way the two clubs played each other last season, physical, violent. A massive makeover from the early days of the NFC West. And finally, the fact that the 49ers took the division from the Seahawks last year, with a cocky smirk on their proverbial face nonetheless. Why the NFL didn’t put this game on primetime eludes me. Maybe a flex consideration here. Late season matchup between two heated division rivals with possible playoff implications? At the Clink? How does the NFL Primetime saying go? “Come on Maaaan!!”

December 30^th, 2012              St. Louis Rams

-           See Week 4. 13 of last 14 go to the Seahawks. Add that we’re at home, in the season finale, against a division opponent and you would have to lean heavily for the ‘Hawks here. However, a healthy Sam Bradford for a full season, and a renewed confidence with the arrival of Jeff Fisher could catapult the Rams into relevancy. Only time will tell…

So that’s it. 17 weeks of illustrious Seahawk Football right there in front of us 12^th Man. Will tendencies, matchups, and rankings give us the answers we’re looking for? Most definitely not. They may be a great help to the Vegas line makers, but nothing will be officially told until the clock strikes 1:15pm PDT on September the 9^th.   Until then, I’ll settle for water cooler championships, and dreams of a February Parade.

I just always assumed Alex Smith was returning to San Francisco, and why not. The Niners are coming off a 13-3 season, Smith wants to return, the 49ers want him back, why wouldn’t this happen, right? Even once free agency started, Smith wasn’t visiting other teams, and the 49ers had reportedly offered him a fairly hefty contract.

But then the strangest thing happened. Nothing. Here we are over a week later and Smith still remains unsigned. So what gives? It turns out that Smith is looking for a long term commitment from the 49ers, and that isn’t the contract that has been offered. The 49ers have apparently offered a 3 year contract, but it is apparently a 2 year contract with a tacked on 3rd year that there is no way that he actually gets to keep unless he turns into Tom Brady.

It turns out that the 49ers see Colin Kaepernick, and not Smith, as their QB of the future. They aren’t going to give Smith a long term contract when they believe that Kaepernick is going to be taking over soon. Complicating things further is the revelation that the 49ers were the “mystery team” that were vying for the services of Peyton Manning. Clearly they aren’t committed to Smith.

Enter the Seahawks, desperate for a QB, and wouldn’t be all that against screwing over their division rival if they are able to. Now we’re hearing rumors that the Seahawks are interested and have been talking to Smith’s people. Connecting the dot isn’t too tough here.

The thing is, I just don’t buy it. Smith isn’t a top QB. That’s why the 49ers aren’t willing to commit to him long term, so why would the Seahawks? While Smith is a small upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson, there’s no reason for the Seahawks to commit to him any more than the 49ers would want to.

Which is why I don’t think it will ever happen. Smith is looking for a long term deal. The Seahawks are looking for a 2 year stop-gap upgrade to give them a chance to draft and develop a long-term solution. So while it might be nice for the Seahawks to try and hurt the 49ers, this just isn’t a fit for either player or team.