Mathematical NFL Power Rankings
By Keith Myers
It’s time for another installment of my mathematical power rankings. With the short week last week for the Seahawks, I didn’t have a chance to get them posted a week ago, but they are back this week.
Since we have so many new readers, here’s the basics of what this is. About a year ago, I started a massive project looking at tons of different stats and looked for correlation to winning. The result, after months of work, was a mathematical model of how each thing a team does that effects winning. I’ve parlayed that knowledge into a formula for that determines a “power” level for each team based on their stats.
This week, the Bears ride a great performance against the Lions and take over the league’s top spot. On the strength of their defense, special teams and third down efficiency (both offense and defense), they’ve been able to overcome having a fairly average offense into becoming statistically the league’s best team.
The Seahawks continue to drop, all the way to 16th this week. The Defense is still the league’s 3rd best, so thats not the reason. Offensively, the team is fairly mediocre, mostly because the passing offense is still one of the league’s worst. (I should note that this has nothing to do with total yards, but rather yards per attempt, and when the passes are completed) One of the biggest reason for the Seahawks fall is the complete lack of production on 3rd down on both sides of the ball, where the Seahawks rank in the bottom third in the league.
The big winner this week was Green Bay. With their offense finally returning to the form they showed last season, their stats are making big positive changes each week, leading to some quick jumps in the rankings.
| Rank | Last | Team | O |
D
ST
3rd%
Power
1
2
Chicago
13.65
11.95
7.32
12.2
92.0
2
3
Houston
13.4
12.05
-13.06
17.7
87.1
3
1
San Francisco
16.45
11.6
-10.24
1.5
86.0
4
4
New England
13.7
13.05
7.92
3.6
80.2
5
6
Atlanta
12.95
15.4
8.3
3.6
75.7
6
8
NY Giant
14.65
16.2
5.4
8.7
74.4
7
7
Minnesota
13.35
12.25
9.42
-8.9
69.6
8
5
Baltimore
14.35
13.5
8.7
-6.3
68.4
9
11
Washington
16.7
13.85
-2.72
-13.8
68.3
10
17
Green Bay
13.45
13.3
6.72
5.6
67.3
11
12
Denver
13.3
12.25
3.38
-0.3
65.9
12
14
Pittsburgh
12.75
12.35
1.52
6.6
65.5
13
13
Miami
13
12.15
14.74
14.4
64.8
14
19
Tampa Bay
14.2
13.15
-10.96
-6.2
64.4
15
10
San Diego
12.95
12.45
-8.54
0.5
64.0
16
9
Seattle
13.15
11.75
-1.42
-5.9
63.2
17
16
Arizona
11.7
12.7
-3.26
2.1
61.4
18
15
St. Louis
13.5
12.9
-9.78
-3.3
58.8
19
22
New Orleans
13.25
16.25
-3.7
10.5
53.9
20
24
NY Jets
12.25
13.5
14.78
-5.7
53.8
21
20
Philadelphia
13.25
12.35
-22.68
12.3
52.1
22
23
Dallas
13.2
13.3
-0.02
5.9
51.7
23
26
Detroit
13.15
12.95
-25.06
-3.7
50.7
24
18
Cincinnati
13.65
14.4
4.82
-10.3
50.2
25
21
Carolina
15
13.65
1.1
-13.4
48.9
26
27
Cleveland
12.3
13.95
5.32
-5.7
48.1
27
28
Buffalo
14.55
16.6
24.48
-4.9
44.2
28
29
Oakland
12.6
12.9
-8.52
-10.8
43.1
29
25
Indianapolis
12.25
14.5
-6.14
-0.1
42.2
30
32
Tennessee
13.1
14.35
8.22
-1.6
36.9
31
31
Jacksonville
11.45
13.8
-4.48
-15.2
32.7
32
30
Kansas City
13.5
15.95
-10.02
7
26.7
O – Index of many offensive stats, including yards rushing attempts and yards per passing attempt
D – Index of many defensive stats, including yards rushing attempts and yards per passing attempt. Lower numbers are better, since that means the D gave up fewer yards.
ST – index of many special teams stats, including yard per return, both offensively and defensely, for both punts and kick returns.
3rd% – relative success on third down, both offensively and defensively.