Mathematical NFL Power Rankings
By Keith Myers
Very little movement in the rankings this week. Since these rankings are based on season stats, one game simple can’t change the stats very far when it’s trying to overcome the sample size of the other 11 games. Thus the rankings tend to be fairly stable over the last few games. Teams are what they are, and there’s no pretending at this point in the season.
Once again, you see the Seahawks sitting there at #12. They’ve been there for most of the season, and even a big win over the Bears didn’t move them up in the rankings. As the offense has slowly improved as the season has gone along, the defense has deteriorated in much the same way. What you’re left with is a team that is a borderline playoff team. Hopefully they can win enough over the last month to get in.
Arizona check in all the way down at #25. I looked, and every index, even the ones not listed here, comes up negative. That’s fairly tough to do. Think of this way, take any stat you want and their opponents have been better at is than they have been. They give up more yards per rush then they get offensively. Same goes for yards per attempt, punt return average, 3rd down %, etc. All of them. This isn’t a good football team. If the Seahawks can’t beat them, especially at home, then something is seriously wrong.
Rank |
Last
Team
Yds
PTDif
ST
Power
1
1
New England
0.45
14.1
17.8
92.1
2
2
San Francisco
4.85
9.8
2.58
87.7
3
3
Houston
0.9
10.9
0.56
83.6
4
5
Denver
1.9
8.8
15.82
79.4
5
4
Chicago
-0.2
8
6.22
76.8
6
6
Baltimore
0.45
5.1
13.1
73.6
7
9
Atlanta
-0.9
7.3
0.12
71.4
8
7
NY Giant
-1.1
6.5
-9.5
69.7
9
10
Washington
2.6
0.9
1.94
68.8
10
8
Tampa Bay
1.45
4
-15.08
68.7
11
11
Green Bay
-0.2
3.1
12.56
68.5
12
12
Seattle
0.6
3.4
5.86
66.1
13
13
Cincinnati
0.4
3.5
3.8
65.7
14
14
Pittsburgh
1
2
-7.8
62.5
15
15
Minnesota
1.85
-0.9
2.38
59.7
16
16
San Diego
0.3
0.1
-4.54
58.9
17
21
Carolina
1
-4.7
-1.2
56.1
18
19
Cleveland
-0.95
-3
7.42
55.8
19
20
Detroit
-0.3
-1.3
-8.56
55.6
20
18
New Orleans
-2.15
-0.5
3.42
55.5
21
17
Miami
0.4
-1.9
2.76
55.4
22
22
Dallas
-1.25
-1.3
-0.16
53.2
23
23
St. Louis
0.4
-3.9
-11.2
52.4
24
25
Buffalo
-0.05
-5
9.88
51.5
25
24
Arizona
-1.65
-4
-5.58
50.7
26
26
NY Jets
-0.55
-5.7
4.68
48.9
27
27
Indianapolis
-1.55
-3.4
-11.22
46.0
28
28
Tennessee
-0.6
-9.2
3.14
43.4
29
29
Philadelphia
-0.1
-8.6
-8.68
41.1
30
30
Jacksonville
-2
-11.3
-9.62
36.5
31
31
Oakland
-2.05
-11.7
-14.96
34.0
32
32
Kansas City
-2.4
-11.1
-3.48
32.1
Yds – A combination of offensive and defensive index. Generally a positive number means that a team’s offense is better at moving the move than how opposing offenses are at doing so against it’s defense.
PTDEF – point differential per game.
ST – Special team’s index. Combination os all parts of special teams play.
There are also about 30 other things involved in determining the power level for each team. Those 3 are just the ones I wanted to include in the table this week.