Mathematical NFL Power Rankings
By Keith Myers
Time once again for my mathematical power rankings. If you’re new here, or haven’t been paying attention, these are based entirely on stats. About 30 season stats, are combined into 1 meta-stat (power) and the teams are ranked accordingly. There’s no popularity contest going on here.
As expected, Seattle jumped up over the 49ers into the #2 spot. The did so by improving in almost every statistical category, which is an amazing feat by itself, especially against a team as good as San Francisco.
I didn’t expect Seattle to be able to make up the entire 8 point deficit and catch the Patriots, who have had a strangle hold on the #1 spot for a month now. They did make it close, and are now just 2 points back. Pretty impressive considering how poorly the Seahawks offense played the first month of the season, and considering that the Seahawks have played a much tougher schedule than the 49ers have.
I want to highlight one statistical category that tells an interesting story for this season. There are 3 teams who average scoring more than 10 points per game more than their opponents. Seattle is one, and the others are New England and Denver. It’s an interesting indicator of dominance, but it doesn’t the tell the entire story here. Both of the AFC teams play in completely awful divisions. If you look at the strength of schedule, the Seahawks have had the substantial more difficult road of those 3 teams.
Rank |
Last
Team
PF
PA
PTDif
ST
3rd%
Power
1
1
New England
35.3
22.1
13.2
13.82
8.5
89.6
2
3
Seattle
26.1
15.5
10.6
3.56
0.5
87.6
3
2
San Francisco
24.7
17.3
7.4
4.3
2.1
86.9
4
4
Denver
29.5
19.1
10.4
9.24
13.6
83.7
5
6
Chicago
23.3
16.9
6.4
9.4
2.8
78.4
6
5
Houston
26.7
20.2
6.5
-1.96
6.1
77.7
7
10
Green Bay
26.6
19.9
6.7
10.58
4.6
76.7
8
7
Washington
27.2
24.7
2.5
5.98
-8.4
76.2
9
8
Atlanta
26.8
18.5
8.3
-1.52
6.6
74.6
10
11
Baltimore
25.4
21.4
4
8.1
1.2
73.4
11
9
Cincinnati
24.5
20.2
4.3
4.18
-2
71.7
12
13
Minnesota
22.8
20.9
1.9
4.24
-4.6
69.5
13
12
NY Giant
25.8
22.5
3.3
-3.1
-3.8
67.5
14
15
Carolina
20.9
21.7
-0.8
1.82
5.2
66.4
15
16
Pittsburgh
20.8
20.3
0.5
-5.2
6.5
63.8
16
14
Tampa Bay
24.5
25.1
-0.6
-10.76
-6.3
63.8
17
19
San Diego
21.7
21.9
-0.2
0.18
-2.4
62.2
18
20
Miami
19.2
19.3
-0.1
2.2
2
61.4
19
17
New Orleans
28.2
27.3
0.9
-6.26
8.1
61.0
20
18
Cleveland
19.5
22.9
-3.4
16.58
-7.3
59.0
21
22
St. Louis
19.1
21.9
-2.8
-10.28
-4.5
57.9
22
21
Dallas
23.9
24.8
-0.9
1.5
3.4
56.6
23
23
Detroit
23.2
27.4
-4.2
-8.06
4.8
53.2
24
24
NY Jets
18.1
23.1
-5
1.74
0
51.1
25
28
Indianapolis
21.9
24.7
-2.8
-5.2
4
49.7
26
26
Buffalo
21.1
28.4
-7.3
9.06
-6
49.4
27
27
Arizona
15.8
22
-6.2
-3.28
-8
46.7
28
25
Tennessee
19.5
30.1
-10.6
-2.62
-1.5
46.4
29
29
Philadelphia
18.2
26.8
-8.6
-9.84
-2
44.8
30
30
Oakland
17.9
27.9
-10
-15.62
-6.6
42.1
31
31
Jacksonville
15.7
27.1
-11.4
-9.44
-12.8
40.8
32
32
Kansas City
13.9
25.8
-11.9
-16.2
-4.6
36.1
Concentrating on points in the table this week.
PF – Points for per game
PA – Points against per game
PTDEF – point differential per game.
ST – Special team’s index. Combination os all parts of special teams play.
3rd% – The difference between 3rd down efficiency and defensive 3rd down efficiency.
There are also about 30 other things involved in determining the power level for each team. Those 5 are just the ones I wanted to include in the table this week.