Week One: Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under
Aug 29, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) runs with the ball while being chased by Oakland Raiders free safety Usama Young (26) during the 1st half at CenturyLink Field. Seattle defeated Oakland 22-6. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
In the first ever edition of what I’m hoping to be a regular series (you may or may not have noticed that I like to do things by the series) today I am proud to unveil “Week One: Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under”. The purpose of this series is to examine the fantasy projections for major Seahawks players and give a prediction as to whether they will perform better or worse than expectations. For each player I will look at their fantasy projections from NFL.com Fantasy and Yahoo Fantasy Football, average the two, and make a quasi informed prediction as to whether they will perform above expectations or fall tragically short. Appropriately we begin at quarterback.
Russell Wilson
Projection Source |
Passing Yards
Passing Touchdowns
Interceptions
Rushing Yards
Rushing Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
143
2
0
15
0
15.22
Yahoo
218
1.7
0.7
35.5
0.2
18.94
Average
180.5
1.85
0.35
25.25
0.1
17.08
Prediction: Over. Russell Wilson threw for 221 yards the last time these two teams met so I think the projections on passing yardage are very conservative. The Carolina Panthers were in the top half of both rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns allowed which means I think that Wilson will have to throw the ball a little bit for this offense to really move the chains.
The next player to examine is the fantasy stud on this roster, creator of earthquakes and destroyer of Skittles:
Marshawn Lynch
Projection Source |
Rushing Yards
Rushing Touchdowns
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
151
1
0
0
21.10
Yahoo
87.3
0.6
11.6
0.1
13.56
Average
119.15
0.8
5.8
0.05
17.33
Prediction: Under. I hate to question Lynch but I think that NFL.com was overzealous in their projection by a wide margin. The Carolina defense only gave up 11 rushing TD’s last year and barely over 100 yards a game on the ground. 17.33 fantasy points is not outside the realm of possibility, but it’s a little rich for my tastes.
Now we move on to the receivers, or more specifically the receivers worth owning in fantasy terms, which at the moment is only Sidney Rice and Golden Tate, starting with the former Viking:
Sidney Rice
Projection Source |
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
14
1
7.40
Yahoo
46.3
0.4
7.07
Average
30.15
0.7
7.24
Prediction: Over. Although the projection systems seem to be more sure that Rice will get a touchdown than I am, I’m not sure 72 yards isn’t out of reach even if he doesn’t hit pay dirt. I don’t think there is a corner on the Panthers who can shut down Rice and, as I mentioned before, I think the Seahawks take to the air in this game.
Golden Tate
Projection Source |
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
38
1
9.8
Yahoo
51.5
0.4
7.9
Average
44.75
0.7
8.85
Prediction: Under. In fantasy circles it seems like people have arbitrarily decided that Golden Tate is Seattle’s go-to receiver. I’m not so sure that’s the case. I think that Rice is still top dog until Harvin returns so this projection seems inflated to me. Tate will almost definitely have to score a touchdown to make this projection (He has only topped 88 yards receiving twice in his career) and that’s no sure bet in my book. I like Golden Tate a great deal as a player but this seems a bit much.
The next player to be examined is the Seahawks tight end who sits on the fringe of ownability, Zach Miller.
Zach Miller
Projection Source |
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
26
0
2.60
Yahoo
38.1
0.3
5.61
Average
32.05
0.15
4.11
Prediction: Over. 32.05 yards seems like a fairly estimate for Zach Miller but this projection definitely understates the likelihood of him scoring a touchdown. Miller has a TD in 3 of his last 6 games (including playoffs) and his performance in the 2012 playoffs (12 catches 190 yards and 1 TD in two games) might just be the harbinger of things to come in 2013. Even if it’s not, Miller is too talented to be pegged with a borderline insulting 4.11 fantasy point projection.
Unfortunately, NFL.com and Yahoo use different scoring systems for defense so it is impossible to average the two. That means we are sticking to skill players for now. I suppose I might make a comment about the kicker but nobody likes to talk about kickers, whether in fantasy or real life.
This week I’ve predicted that three Seahawks will produce above their projections and two will fall below them. That feels about right, although most predictions do at the moment we make them. Whether said predictions are remotely accurate remains to be seen. The answers will reveal themselves on Sunday.