Week 9: Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under

Oct 28, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Golden Tate (81) catches a pass for a touchdown defended by St. Louis Rams cornerbacks Trumaine Johnson (23) and Janoris Jenkins (21) during the first half at Edward Jones Dome. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Week 9’s “Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under” deals with Seattle’s matchup with the lowly Buccaneers. Despite an unimpressive performance against the Rams, this game appears to one where the outcome is hardly in doubt. With rookie quarterback in Mike Glennon, and without star running back Doug Martin, this Tampa team stands little chance of putting up points against Seattle’s defense. When you factor in the fact that the Seahawks are at home this could be a over in a hurry. However, even if the Seahawks aren’t in trouble this week your fantasy teams might be, so today we examine how the Seahawks players might produce from a fantasy perspective. Starting, of course, at quarterback:

Russell Wilson

Passing Yards

Passing Touchdowns

Interceptions

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

222

1

1

30

0

13.88

Yahoo

202

1.8

0.5

44.4

0.2

19.40

Average

212

1.4

0.75

37.2

0.1

16.64

Prediction: Over. This is a tough one. Russell Wilson is down Sidney Rice and he is going up against a respectable Buccaneers defense featuring Darrelle Revis. However, given that Marshawn Lynch isn’t 100% I think more will fall on the passing game in this one. Also, the Buccaneers just don’t have the edge rushers to terrorize Wilson the way the Rams did. I think he throws for a couple of touchdowns in this one which makes the projection very makeable.

Next up is the man with the suspect knee, Marshawn Lynch:

Marshawn Lynch

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

111

1

18

0

18.90

Yahoo

77.9

0.5

16.9

0.1

12.38

Average

94.5

0.75

17.5

0.05

15.6

Prediction: Under. Marshawn Lynch’s ailing knee is slightly concerning but he has often played through minor injuries and done so well so that isn’t my biggest issue with Lynch this week. The Buccaneers have only allowed 662 rushing yards against this year and 3.7 yards per carry so this is a very tough matchup. Added to that is the fact that while the Seattle will likely use the running game to close this out there is a good chance they turn to Robert Turbin for that given Lynch’s troublesome knee.

Now we move on to the receivers, where Sidney Rice is no longer with us. If Jermaine Kearse steps up and becomes remotely relevant he will be included here but I’m taking a wait-and-see approach on that. Soon enough Percy Harvin will be evaluated here but that won’t be this week:

Golden Tate

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

50

0

5

Yahoo

59.2

0.5

9.36

Average

54.6

0.25

7.18

Prediction: Over. Even though Darrelle Revis is lurking around every corner I still think that Tate surpasses this projection. With Rice gone he is the undisputed number one receiver on this team and he’s also the most dynamic (both those statements come with the qualifier “for now”). I think the Seahawks passing offense is much more effective in this game than they were on Friday and Tate is the main beneficiary.

Doug Baldwin

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

0

0

0

Yahoo

41.8

0.3

6.05

Average

20.9

0.15

3.25

Prediction: Over.

NFL.com either forgot Doug Baldwin exists or just has absolutely no respect for his game. I’ll take the low hanging fruit here and go with the over.

Zach Miller

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Fantasy Points

NFL.com

26

0

2.6

Yahoo

32.8

0.5

6.04

Average

29.4

0.25

4.32

Prediction: Over.

I don’t have a logical enough reason to justify this pick but I feel that with Sidney Rice out Miller becomes a big red zone target here. He also is unlikely to be covered by Darrelle Revis, which helps. I’ll probably regret this call.

Last Week’s Results

20.92

Under

15.16

Right

Marshawn Lynch

17.82

Over

2.70

Laughably Wrong

Doug Baldwin

3.98

Over

1.20

Wrong

Sidney Rice

9.26

Under

0.00

Right

Golden Tate

10.00

Over

21.30

Right

Zach Miller

6.38

Under

1.40

Right

It would have been a good week for me if I had not blown the Lynch call so badly. I’ll take 4-2 every time though. Coin flip or better is the goal.