Week 11 Fantasy Over/Under
Nov 10, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) stiff arms Atlanta Falcons safety Thomas DeCoud (28) on a run in the first half at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11’s “Seahawks Fantasy Over/Under” looks at the Seahawks matchup with the Minnesota Vikings within the friendly confines of the Clink. Last week the Seahawks finally put together a complete and impressive win that allowed their fans to exhale for the first time since their win against Arizona. The Vikings are a team that Seattle is expected to beat and if the game is particularly compelling then the Seahawks have done something wrong. This edition of “Fantasy Over/Under” will include the debut of Percy Harvin which I, for one, am excited about. I thought about including Jermaine Kearse but I don’t think this team can support four receivers who are relevant in fantasy. We begin at quarterback:
Russell Wilson
Projection Source |
Passing Yards
Passing Touchdowns
Interceptions
Rushing Yards
Rushing Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
291
2
1
44
1
28.04
Yahoo
224
2.1
0.4
39.8
0.2
20.86
Average
257.5
4.1
0.7
41.9
0.6
24.45
Prediction: Under. Russell Wilson has the potential to put up a huge game here, but not this huge. I think the Seahawks get ahead in this one for long enough that the running game is the focus. It’s unfair to project a rushing touchdown for a guy who gets them so rarely.
Next a man who was on a mission last week, Marshawn Lynch:
Marshawn Lynch
Projection Source |
Rushing Yards
Rushing Touchdowns
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
75
1
9
0
14.40
Yahoo
78.5
0.8
20.3
0.1
14.73
Average
76.8
0.9
14.7
0.05
14.57
Prediction: Over. It’s interesting how close the two predictions are. Now that the “Williams Wall” is long gone there is no reason to be scared of running the ball at the Vikings. The Seahawks are at home and should be ahead and Marshawn Lynch has looked great the last couple of weeks behind an improving offensive line. Huge day for Lynch.
Now we move on to the pass catchers, where Percy Harvin makes an appearance for the first time:
Golden Tate
Projection Source |
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
102
1
16.20
Yahoo
54.7
0.5
8.63
Average
78.4
0.75
12.42
Prediction: Under. I got burned last week by taking the Under for Golden Tate, but this week I will stay the course again. 12.42 points is a lot of points. He has a decent chance to make that total while Harvin is still limited and there is no one in the Vikings secondary, but still.
Percy Harvin (!)
Projection Source |
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
54
1
12.30
Yahoo
40.3
0.4
7.13
Average
47.2
0.7
9.72
Prediction: Under. I think that Percy Harvin can reach double digit fantasy points in this offense consistently but that would be tough to do with limited snaps. I can see Pete Carroll scheming in something for him in the red zone to get him going, but that’s a hunch I wouldn’t bet much of anything on.
Doug Baldwin
Projection Source |
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
95
1
15.90
Yahoo
49.9
0.4
6.41
Average
72.5
0.7
11.16
Prediction: Under.
NFL.com suddenly has realized that Baldwin exists but the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Baldwin isn’t a huge red zone guy so he remains a better receiver in real life than fantasy.
Zach Miller
Projection Source |
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
36
0
3.60
Yahoo
27.7
0.4
4.88
Average
31.9
0.2
4.24
Prediction: Under.
Not falling for Zach Miller’s bit again. I refuse. Having said that he will definitely score a touchdown now. I hope he does, I do quite like the fellow.
Last Week’s Results
Player | Aggregated Projection | Nick’s prediction | Actual Week 9 Fantasy Points | Nick was…. |
Russell Wilson |
23.95
Under
21.48
Right
Marshawn Lynch
16.99
Over
22.10
Right
Doug Baldwin
4.31
Over
7.60
Right
Golden Tate
13.40
Under
16.60
Wrong
Zach Miller
7.76
Over
0.00
Wrong (WOW)
3-2 isn’t pretty but it will work. That Miller pick was gruesome. His production is so touchdown based that it’s almost impossible to guess. But that’s no excuse. Tune in next week to see what kind of excuses I’ll be making up for these picks.