Week 14: Fantasy Over/Under
Dec 2, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin (89) catches a pass for a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints during the second quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Today the Seahawks take on the 49ers looking to clinch the NFC West title. The 49ers are a tough team with a defense that could really stifle Seattle’s playmakers and make it a hard day for fantasy owners. Let’s take a look at what we are dealing with, beginning at quarterback:
Russell Wilson
Projection Source |
Passing Yards
Passing Touchdowns
Interceptions
Rushing Yards
Rushing Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
206
1
1
33
0
13.54
Yahoo
202
1.5
0.6
37.6
0.1
17.17
Average
204
1.25
0.8
35.3
0.05
15.36
Prediction: Over
Russell Wilson didn’t have much of a game last time the Seahawks played the 49ers but this projection feels conservative. Wilson has been rolling lately and the strength of the 49ers defense is the front seven not the secondary. Wilson is unlikely to put up monster numbers but 15+ points shouldn’t be too difficult.
Next up is Marshawn Lynch:
Marshawn Lynch
Projection Source |
Rushing Yards
Rushing Touchdowns
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
101
2
8
0
22.90
Yahoo
83.5
0.7
18.6
0.1
14.23
Average
92.1
1.35
12.3
0.05
18.57
Prediction: Under
Lynch has owned the 49ers of late including a 31.5 point performance against them in Week 2. Unfortunately, it’s unfair to expect him to repeat that kind of dominance. Lynch hasn’t cracked 55 yards in two straight games and the 49ers have a stout defense. The NFL,com projection is also way too optimistic. Not that I wouldn’t like to see Lynch put up a couple of touchdowns…
Now we move on to the receivers, where Percy Harvin’s brief tenure on the list is over for now:
Golden Tate
Projection Source |
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
41
0
4.10
Yahoo
49.5
0.3
7.14
Average
45.25
0.15
5.63
Prediction: Over
Golden Tate has been very inconsistent in terms of fantasy production but I will stubbornly continue to bet on him if the projection is this low. Tate is still a really dangerous player and he’s due for a big game. The 49ers will make it hard for him to accumulate YAC yards but 57 yards wouldn’t be that hard to come by and any touchdown would seal the deal.
Doug Baldwin
Projection Source |
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
55
1
11.50
Yahoo
47
0.3
6.58
Average
51
0.65
8.54
Prediction: Under
Doug Baldwin is on a tear lately, making this is a really tough call. However, 8.54 is a pretty meaty projection for a guy who is a WR3 in the fantasy world. With the impact he’s made in recent weeks you have to think the 49ers will be keying on Baldwin to some degree and I don’t see him scoring a touchdown in this game even though he has 3 in his last 4.
Zach Miller
Projection Source |
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns
Fantasy Points
NFL.com
30
0
3.00
Yahoo
35.2
0.3
5.53
Average
32.6
0.15
4.27
Prediction: Over
Zach Miller is incredibly boom or bust but he has 21.5 fantasy points in his last two games. Perhaps things are looking up for his role in the offense. I’m not sure I buy that but I’m willing to try to believe.
Week 11 Results
| Player | Aggregated Projection | Nick’s prediction | Actual Week 9 Fantasy Points | Nick was…. |
Russell Wilson |
17.27
Over
29.10
Right
Marshawn Lynch
13.66
Over
5.70
Wrong
Doug Baldwin
4.70
Over
13.70
Right
Golden Tate
5.20
Over
4.50
Wrong
Percy Harvin
9.93
Under
0.00
Right (by default)
Zach Miller
6.60
Under
14.60
Wrong
3-3 and I needed Harvin’s injury to even get that. Very disappointing stuff. Tune in next week to see if these estimations get more credible. Spoiler Alert: They won’t.