Jan 19, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll (right) and general manager John Schneider embrace after the 2013 NFC Championship football game against the San Francisco 49ers at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
I hear so many times that the Seahawks don’t need eleven draft picks because they don’t have eleven holes to fill. You can’t look at it like this.
You have to look at draft picks like lottery tickets, the more tickets you have the better chance you have to win. If we do end up drafting eleven players, not all of these players are going to make the team or even be decent players. Lets breakdown PC/JS first three drafts and see how they did. First, 2010:
[table id=46 /]
For this exercise I’m going to break down each draft in two parts. First, rounds 1-3, then 4-7. The 2010 draft is pretty straight forward, the only pick I had trouble with would be Thurmond. I had to put him in the fail column due to his injuries. I know he played a good part in our Super Bowl winning season but that’s not enough. Rounds 1-3 the Seahawks went three for three, 100%. Okung has missed time but he deserves a passing grade. Tate you could argue, his first two years weren’t very good but his last two were. Thomas has been a beast so lets just move on.
Rounds 4-7 were rough in there first year. The only player that gets a passing grade is Chancellor, giving this portion of the draft a 16.7%. This would give the 2010 draft class an overall grade of 44% (4 of 9). Next, 2011:
[table id=51 /]
When it comes to the 2011 draft it’s almost the opposite. Fails in the early part and success in the back. The Seahawks tried to address the OL early in this draft and it didn’t work out so good. Carpenter only really showed anything when he was in a contract year and Moffitt, well you know the story. We didn’t have a second rounder this year so this gives us a pass/fail rate of 0%. Not very good, but they turned this draft around with the back-end. Durham, LeGree, and Levingston did nothing, but Wright, Sherman, and Maxwell have been studs. Wright and Sherman almost from day one and Maxwell the last year and a half. Malcom Smith was a seventh rounder who didn’t get a whole lot of time but did play well when he was on the field. Also how could you fail the Super Bowl MVP.
The Seahawks went four for seven in this part of the draft giving them a 57% success rate during rounds 4-7. In total the 2011 gets the same grade as the 2010 draft, a 44%. Lastly, the 2012 draft:
[table id=48 /]
This is considered by many PC/JS best draft. Some could give Bruce Irvin either a pass or fail, but I decided to give him a pass. He was asked to switch positions after his rookie year and did a pretty good job. Wagner and Wilson are both up for extensions this year so I think there play speaks for itself. Like 2010, all three draft picks round 1-3 received a passing grade giving them a 100%
As far as the back half, Howard, Toomer, and Guy are no longer on the team and Scruggs has hardly had much of an impact. Turbin and Lane have been good contributors and Sweezy is another guy who is up for a contract extension. Three of the seven players received a passing grade giving the Seahawks a grade of 43%. Obviously there is still another year for the 2012 class but I don’t really see it changing much.
If we add all the rounds together we get a 75% success rate (6 of 8) in rounds 1-3 and a 40% success rate (8 of 20) in rounds 4-7. In all we drafted twenty-eight players in these three drafts. Fifteen of the players are no longer with the team, eleven players have been anywhere from solid to great contributors, and McCoy and Scruggs are still on the team making little impact. In total, fourteen of the twenty-eight draft picks have panned out giving the Seahawks a success rate of 50%.
If we end up drafting eleven players, the percentages say that only five or six of the players will actually end up working out.
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