Seahawks Season Predictions: Will Special Teams Improve?

The Seattle Seahawks are widely considered the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl again this upcoming season. In previous articles I’ve explained how an aging Marshawn Lynch and a predictable offensive coordinator could knock the Seahawks from contender to pretender. This week, I’ll wrap up this series with a look at special teams.

If you’ve read either of my previous articles you know that I am a fan of using Football Outsiders defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) statistics to analyze the Seahawks past performances and then speculate on the upcoming season. In doing so, I noticed a significant disparity in special teams performance in 2013 and 2014. While this is likely not shocking news to anyone that follows the Seahawks, the stats can help pinpoint the cause(s) of the decline.

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According to special teams DVOA, Seattle finished with the fifth best special teams unit in the NFL in 2013. Their DVOA rating of 5% translates to a special teams unit that was 5% better than the average NFL unit for that season. Kansas City led the NFL in 2013 at just over 9% above average. In 2014 Seattle’s special teams plummeted to a DVOA score of -2%, “good” for 21st in the NFL. Like anything, there were multiple factors that contributed to this drop.

One method to study special teams is to assess the five elements of special teams individually: field goal/extra point, kickoff, kick return, punt, and punt return. Comparing each elements performance in 2013 with that of 2014 enables us to identify the specific issues that caused the special teams unit to fall to the bottom half of the NFL last season. A component of Football Outsiders special teams DVOA calculations includes an estimate of how many points, compared to league average, each team receives from the five elements of special teams. The chart below indicates all five elements of Seattle’s special teams were worse in 2014.

The FG/XP team is essentially all about Hauschka. The kicker did contribute to the special teams slide in 2014, however, it was actually just regressing to the mean rather than a true slip in performance. Hauschka had a career year in 2013, missing just two field goal attempts the entire season, resulting in a conversion rate of nearly 95%. However, his career average for field goal conversions is 85%, which is almost precisely what he achieved in 2014 (83.8%). Ultimately, this element of special teams did contribute to the overall decline in 2014 but not significantly or unexpectedly so let’s just move on.

Kickoffs were also not a significant factor as the numbers in both seasons were nearly identical in all relevant categories (average distance, touchbacks, average opponent start, percent returned, and average return yardage).

The punt team experienced the most statistically significant decline, swinging from adding over 10 points in 2013 to costing the team the equivalent of 4 points in 2014. The punt team, at it’s simplest, is the punter and the coverage unit. Comparing the punt team’s stats between the two seasons indicates the issues reside primarily with the coverage team and not the punter.

Generally Punter Stats

Punts

Avg

OOB

Ret

2013

42.7

20146144.169

Looking at the stats that are generally attributable to the punter you can see that Jon Ryan was relatively consistent the past two seasons. His average punt distance increased slightly in 2014, touchbacks were even, kicks out-of-bounds increased 12%, and the percentage of punts returned was almost identical (28.3% vs 27.8%).

If we look at the remaining punting stats, the ones I consider generally attributable to the punt coverage unit, you start to see the problems.

Generally Punt Coverage Stats

Punts

Net Avg

Down

Ret Avg

2013

39.2

3.9

2014

38.3

11.5

In 2013 the number of punts fair caught or downed was significantly higher than in 2014. Additionally, the average return yardage increased by nearly 8 yards! Since the punters numbers didn’t really change, these three stats indicate a failure of the punt coverage team to reach the termination point of the punt in a timely manner, whether by lack of speed or technique.

The struggles of both the kick and punt return teams were probably the most obvious to the average football fan. Last season a kick return that reached the 20-yard line felt like a victory and Bryan Walters looked more like a lost hiker trying to signal a rescue helicopter than a punt returner.

Somewhat surprisingly, the kick return team wasn’t that much worse last year than it was the year before…it was bad both seasons. Football Outsiders valued Seattle’s kick return team as costing the team 3.8 points in 2013 and 7.5 in 2014. Statistically, however, the unit was nearly identical during both regular seasons averaging 21-yards per return and 0 touchdowns.

The punt return team, however, suffered a statistically significant decline, dropping from adding over 7 points to the team in 2013 to costing Seattle 2.5 points in 2014. A lot of this decline was due to the loss of Golden Tate. In 2013, Pro Football Focus ranked Tate as the number one punt returner in the NFL (subscription required), and it wasn’t even close; Tate rated 40% better than the second ranked returner (Dexter McCluster). Going from Tate to the human fair-catch machine Bryan Walters was a massive drop-off: punt return yardage dropped by more than half and fair catches nearly doubled. I believe a lot of this can be attributed to the skills of the return man, but if the rest of the special teams performance is any indicator I’m sure blocking also played a role.

So if punt coverage, punt returns, and kick returns were the major contributors to Seattle’s special teams decline why the drop and will it improve this season?

Other than Tate, the biggest contributors on special teams in 2013 were Heath Farwell (ST Captain), Chris Maragos, Derrick Coleman, Richard Sherman, and Jeremy Lane. Pro Football Focus (PFF) rated Jeremy Lane as the NFL’s third best special teams player and the second best punt coverage player, where he excelled at the gunner position. PFF graded Heath Farwell as the NFL’s ninth most valuable special teams player. He was outstanding both in coverage and blocking. Maragos was also a talented special teams tackler, while Coleman excelled as a blocker for the kick and punt return teams. Not only a top cornerback, Richard Sherman was also ranked in the top 12 of all special teams players in the NFL and number three overall for punt coverage.

Last season saw significant turnover among these standout special teams players and their replacements did not fare as well. No player with significant playing time graded in PFF’s top 100 for special teams play. Heath Farwell missed the entire season due to injury. Chris Maragos left to Philadelphia in the offseason. Derrick Coleman played in only five games due to injury – his first missed action being the special teams disaster in week 7 versus the Rams. Richard Sherman only played on special teams in four games, down from ten the year prior. Lane also battled injuries throughout 2014 and only saw the field on special teams in five games. Ricardo Lockette replaced Lane as the primary gunner and, while he has the speed for the position, didn’t quite have the knack for it (ranked #220 by PFF).

The outlook for 2015 appears better, but much of that depends on rookies and players returning from injury. Derrick Coleman is fully recovered from last season’s foot injury but Jeremy Lane likely won’t return from his gruesome injury until at least mid-season. Farwell is currently a free agent and while Seattle has reportedly shown interest in bringing him back, that is unlikely unless all of the cheaper alternatives currently on the roster fail.

Tyler Lockett, Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

John Schneider and Pete Carroll focused on speed in this past draft specifically with an eye on improving the special teams unit. Third round pick Tyler Lockett was considered the best return man in all of college football last year and should provide a spark to Seattle’s lagging return game. Other 2015 draft picks such as Tye Smith, Ryan Murphy, and Obum Gwacham will likely play a lot of special teams this season and their speed should prove valuable. Kevin Pierre-Louis and Brock Coyle played OK on special teams last year and hopefully will build upon that this season. Derrick Coleman already singled out Brock and KPL during OTA’s as players that have the right skills and attitude to be special teams standouts this season.

Overall, I don’t think this special teams unit could do any worse than last season so that should be about the floor for expectation management. The ceiling is probably somewhere around top 10 in the NFL, but that largely depends on the legs of Tyler Lockett. If he is able to translate his college skills to the NFL quickly, then Seattle’s special teams unit will be much scarier this season. If not, well, we know what that looks like…we saw it last season.

Next: Seahawks Roster Battles: Offensive Line

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