NFL Power Index: More movement at the top
By Keith Myers
The NFL Power Index for week 11 has a few very unexpected results. The Kansas City Chiefs, a team that looked awful at the start of the season, has taken of the league’s top spot. They’ve played well recently, but their assent up the rankings is still surprising.
Oakland and Denver were the two teams that dropped the most with week. It is east to see why with Denver. They simply lost too much ground in offensive efficiency and turnover statistics.
The Raiders were soundly beaten on the score board, but that had more to do with turnovers than them being dominated on either side of the ball. Instead, their drop had more to do with a tight grouping of the teams in the 13-17 range. A small change in overall index allowed many teams to pass them.
I’m at a loss to explain just how bad the Detroit Lions have been. Even with their victory over Green Bay, the Lions remain the worst team that this index has ever seen.
The Seahawks are at the other end of that particular spectrum. They keep losing, but are doing so in a way doesn’t cause them to drop significantly. That isn’t sustainable.
At least the NFL Power index isn’t the only one that likes Seattle in spite of their record. DVOA from Football outsiders also is still bullish on the Seahawks.
Top DVOA by team with losing record thru 9 games: 2003 TB, 2002 KC, 2015 SEA, 2008 GB, 1997 DAL, 2001 TB, 1991 SF, 2015 KC, 2004 KC, 2003 GB
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) November 19, 2015
NFL Power Index
| Rank | Last | Team | Yds | ST | 3% | SoS | TO | Power |
| 1 | 6 | Kansas City | 0.6 | 25.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 8 | 81.30 |
| 2 | 2 | New England | 0.7 | 15.7 | 6.8 | -0.3 | 6 | 80.39 |
| 3 | 4 | Arizona | 2.0 | 21.8 | 9.9 | -0.8 | 1 | 79.92 |
| 4 | 1 | Cincinnati | 0.2 | 17.2 | 7.4 | 0.1 | 3 | 72.92 |
| 5 | 3 | Seattle | 1.8 | 13.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0 | 70.92 |
| 6 | 7 | Pittsburgh | 1.7 | 18.7 | -4.9 | 0.4 | 5 | 69.95 |
| 7 | 8 | Carolina | 1.1 | 18.3 | 0.6 | -1.4 | 8 | 66.67 |
| 8 | 12 | Buffalo | 1.5 | 11.9 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 5 | 66.05 |
| 9 | 10 | Green Bay | 0.0 | 27.6 | -2.7 | 0.3 | 7 | 63.69 |
| 10 | 13 | Minnesota | 0.5 | 25.9 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 2 | 62.94 |
| 11 | 5 | Denver | 0.8 | 15.3 | -1.9 | 0.9 | -2 | 61.14 |
| 12 | 9 | NY Jets | 0.4 | 16.4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 3 | 61.07 |
| 13 | 15 | Atlanta | 0.9 | 21.7 | 4.6 | -2.5 | 0 | 56.44 |
| 14 | 16 | Philadelphia | 0.1 | 22.0 | -7.5 | -0.3 | 4 | 55.61 |
| 15 | 17 | NY Giants | -0.9 | 18.2 | -6.3 | -0.8 | 12 | 54.42 |
| 16 | 11 | Oakland | -0.2 | 24.7 | 3.7 | 0.3 | -1 | 54.03 |
| 17 | 14 | St. Louis | 0.7 | 20.5 | -7.7 | 0 | 4 | 53.20 |
| 18 | 19 | Tampa Bay | 0.8 | 25.8 | -4.4 | -2.8 | 0 | 50.33 |
| 19 | 20 | Houston | -1.5 | 23.5 | 10.6 | -0.5 | -1 | 49.88 |
| 20 | 28 | Washington | -1.5 | 11.6 | 3.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 46.47 |
| 21 | 18 | New Orleans | -1.6 | 22.5 | 12.4 | -0.9 | -4 | 46.13 |
| 22 | 24 | Dallas | 0.1 | 33.7 | -0.6 | 0.6 | -8 | 43.93 |
| 23 | 22 | Indianapolis | -0.8 | 18.3 | 4.2 | 0 | -7 | 43.43 |
| 24 | 27 | Chicago | -0.6 | 25.8 | -2 | 1.6 | -1 | 43.35 |
| 25 | 23 | San Diego | -1.7 | 26.9 | 5.8 | -0.5 | -5 | 42.80 |
| 26 | 21 | Tennessee | -0.4 | 16.7 | -6.4 | -1.9 | -8 | 42.15 |
| 27 | 25 | Miami | 0.3 | 19.3 | -10.5 | 0.8 | -3 | 39.74 |
| 28 | 31 | Baltimore | -0.6 | 26.3 | -7.7 | 0 | -10 | 36.05 |
| 29 | 26 | Jacksonville | 0.2 | 19.8 | -11.3 | 0.8 | -4 | 33.99 |
| 30 | 30 | San Francisco | -1.2 | 22.2 | -1.8 | 1.5 | -1 | 28.30 |
| 31 | 29 | Cleveland | -1.9 | 19.7 | 1.6 | 1 | -5 | 26.33 |
| 32 | 32 | Detroit | -1.7 | 27.9 | -10.2 | 2.6 | -10 | 2.65 |
Over 30 stats are combined into several indexes, and then those indexes are weighted and combined into a raw power index. That is then normalized to historical data from the last 15 years. 50 is average.
Yds – yards per play index. Offense and defense included, with run and pass weighted separately.
SOS – Strength of schedule ratings from TeamRankings.
ST – Special teams index, created using returns averages, both for and against
3% – Net third-down conversion rate