NFL Power Index: Seattle the new No. 1
By Keith Myers
The NFL Power Index has a new leader. For the first time all year, the Seattle Seahawks are back on top.
The NFL Power Index has been high on the Seattle Seahawks all year, even when they were losing. Regression to the mean meant that the Seahawks were going to start winning at some point, and they is exactly what has happened recently.
It probably shouldn’t be much of a surprise given how well the team has been playing lately, but the Seahawks leaped above Kansas City and is the new top team. The Seahawks have been climbing steadily for the last six weeks.
It is also pretty clear that there are three elite teams right now and then a group of 4 very good teams. Once you get down to passed Carolina, the teams haven’t played well enough this season to suggest they can win 3 or 4 playoff games in a row.
Unfortunately, that means that 25 of 32 teams aren’t truly in the hunt for championship this season. That isn’t parity. That’s mediocrity.
No team moved more than three spots this week. The NFL Power Index is created with season stats, so the sample sizes are large enough now that there is some stability. We shouldn’t see big changes at this point. Teams simply are what they are.
One exception might be Seattle. Without Lynch and Rawls, there’s a good chance that their running stats take a nosedive. Since the stats used are per-play stats, there isn’t much room for the passing stats to improve. Even if Wilson continues to carve up defenses, his yards per attempt isn’t likely to go up much.
NFL Power Index: Week 15
| Rank | Last | Team | Yds | 3% | SoS | TO | Power |
| 1 | 2 | Seattle | 2.1 | 11.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 96.30 |
| 2 | 1 | Kansas City | 1.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 12 | 92.96 |
| 3 | 3 | Arizona | 1.6 | 12.6 | -0.1 | 6 | 88.83 |
| 4 | 5 | Pittsburgh | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 4 | 80.63 |
| 5 | 4 | Cincinnati | 0.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 79.87 |
| 6 | 6 | New England | 0.4 | 6.2 | 0.1 | 5 | 76.01 |
| 7 | 7 | Carolina | 1.4 | 5 | -1.7 | 18 | 74.91 |
| 8 | 10 | Green Bay | -0.1 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 7 | 68.26 |
| 9 | 8 | Denver | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0 | 67.69 |
| 10 | 9 | Buffalo | 1.2 | -2.4 | 0.8 | 3 | 63.10 |
| 11 | 11 | NY Jets | 0.6 | 7.9 | -2 | 5 | 60.74 |
| 12 | 12 | Minnesota | 0.2 | 0 | 0.9 | 0 | 58.58 |
| 13 | 16 | Oakland | -0.2 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0 | 55.31 |
| 14 | 13 | Tampa Bay | 1.6 | -4.3 | -2.7 | 1 | 52.72 |
| 15 | 17 | NY Giants | -0.8 | -6.5 | -1.3 | 9 | 52.01 |
| 16 | 14 | Houston | -1.0 | 7.7 | -0.3 | -1 | 50.77 |
| 17 | 15 | Atlanta | 0.1 | 0.4 | -2.2 | -6 | 49.96 |
| 18 | 18 | Washington | -1.3 | 3.6 | -1.1 | 0 | 47.53 |
| 19 | 20 | Philadelphia | -0.6 | -5.4 | -0.4 | 2 | 46.68 |
| 20 | 21 | New Orleans | -1.8 | 10.9 | -1.1 | -2 | 46.16 |
| 21 | 24 | Jacksonville | 0.3 | -7.9 | -1.3 | -5 | 45.45 |
| 22 | 22 | Chicago | -0.7 | -2.2 | 0.9 | -2 | 43.47 |
| 23 | 19 | Tennessee | -0.5 | -9.2 | -2.6 | -9 | 43.33 |
| 24 | 26 | St. Louis | 0.0 | -7.5 | 0.8 | -1 | 42.02 |
| 25 | 28 | Miami | 0.0 | -12.9 | -0.3 | -3 | 37.38 |
| 26 | 23 | Baltimore | -0.4 | -8.2 | 0 | -12 | 34.63 |
| 27 | 27 | Indianapolis | -1.5 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -6 | 34.23 |
| 28 | 31 | Cleveland | -1.4 | 4.3 | -0.1 | -7 | 34.09 |
| 29 | 25 | Dallas | 0.0 | -2.7 | 0.8 | -15 | 33.04 |
| 30 | 29 | San Diego | -1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -7 | 30.86 |
| 31 | 30 | Detroit | -1.1 | -5.4 | 1.6 | -9 | 26.09 |
| 32 | 32 | San Francisco | -1.1 | -10.1 | 1.6 | 0 | 23.47 |
Historical data from over 15 NFL season were used to develop a model on how 32 stats cause teams to win and lose. The NFL Power Index uses that model determine how good teams are based on their stats from that season.
Also listed are sub-indexes that are compiled before being combined into a raw power index. The Raw power index is then normalized with historical data so that 50 is average. 100 is a theoretical maximum, and zero is a theoretical minimum.