Jermaine Kearse’s value is tough to determine

The Seattle Seahawks want to keep Jermaine Kearse, but agreeing on a reasonable contract for him will be a difficult task.

To say that Jermaine Kearse is polarizing within the Seattle fanbase would be an understatement. Fans seem to think he’s either and major star, or a complete waste of a roster spot.

It is easy to see why, just look at the 2014 NFC Championship Game. Kearse had 2 passes bounce off his hands for interceptions. He stopped running on another pass, leading to a third pick. He later had two massive game-changing catches, including the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

That game was Kearse’s career at both extremes. It also was the perfect sample for confirmation bias to help set what you already believed about him.

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A year ago, the Seahawks kept Kearse when he was a restricted free agent. The $2.2 million salary was a vast overpayment based on his previous production, but the Seahawks couldn’t afford to lose him the year after losing Golden Tate, and with Paul Richardson expected to miss most of the season.

2015 was good to Kearse though. The emergence of of Tyler Lockett moved Kearse out of the starting lineup, and away from the opponents top CBs. Lockett speed also meant that he would often occupy a safety, which provided Kearse with more space to work.

He was no longer expected to be a playmaker on the outside. Instead, Kearse’s role shifted to being a third-down target. This is the same role the Bobby Engram and Paul Skanzi have played well in for Seattle in the past. It is also a role that suited Kearse’s skill set very well.

Kearse’s role expanded when Jimmy Graham was hurt. It didn’t happen right away, but the Seahawks found success using Kearse in the isolation concepts that they’d originally designed around Graham.

So that leads us to Kearse hitting free agency. Before 2015, the Seahawks would have been wise to simply let Kearse walk and take the compensatory pick. Now, the story is a bit different.

Over The Cap estimates Kearse’s value to be 3 years and $10.5 million. $3.5 million per year is completely reasonable for a player like him. With the salary cap increasing, pushing that number up closer to $4 million per year makes sense.

Above that number, it becomes tough to justify. Kearse is still a flawed played that will succeed only in a very specific role. That role isn’t one that justifies a larger salary.

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All of this puts the Seahawks into a delicate position. This is a player they want back, but if another team is willing to pony up the cash, they have to let him walk.

Hopefully it won’t come to that, and the two sides can agree to a reasonable contract before free agency begins.