The Path to the (other) Title: Seahawks trends in DVOA

While 2015 sadly did not end in another Lombardi for the Seahawks, they did bring home their unprecedented 4^th consecutive Football Outsiders DVOA Title (The Schatz Trophy?). 2016 is off to another hot DVOA start as Seattle sits atop Football Outsider’s new “DAVE” stat, which is their newest method of predicting where teams will finish in the eventual end-of-season DVOA rankings.

Week 1 Results

Looking back at week 1, the Seahawks DVOA scores match what my eyes saw watching the game:

The offense was middling, with the passing offense outperforming the rushing offense basically only because of Doug Baldwin (10^th best week 1 DYAR performance among NFL WRs). Thomas Rawls was actually the only other pass catcher to finish with a positive receiving score.

Behind a dominant defensive line, Miami’s defense put forth a top 10 DVOA effort against Seattle, finishing one spot behind the Los Angeles Rams in defensive DVOA. In many ways, Miami’s defense may have been a good tune-up for Seattle’s offense (great DL, questions elsewhere). Let’s hope it works.

Defensively, the Seahawks dominated by posting the 2^nd highest total DVOA behind only the 49ers annihilation of the Rams. Hello, Case Keenum…can’t wait to meet you.

Outside of the one touchdown drive by Miami, the Seattle defense didn’t allow anyone to move the ball. The only notable player on Seattle’s defense that played poorly was Earl Thomas and I fully expect him to have his act together in week 2. Thomas has been POFG since he got in the league and he won’t tolerate substandard play for long. With top 5 finishes in all components of defensive DVOA, the Seattle defense is well on its way to another great season. Barring some Jeff Fisher voodoo, I expect the Seattle defense to dominate again in L.A.

Special teams were up and down last week, but still managed to finish 6^th in weighted DVOA. The unit blocked a field goal and did well to limit punt return yardage, but also missed an extra point and allowed a 45-yard kick return. Seattle made a special teams transaction this week by replacing Tharold Simon with defensive back Neiko Thorpe, a move aimed at improving the coverage units.

Week 2 Outlook

Looking ahead to week 2, on paper the matchup with the Rams has the making of a blowout.

Offensively, the Seahawks will be challenged by the Ram’s attacking defensive line much like Miami did but I find little else scary about their defense. Personnel wise, the Ram’s secondary is worse than last season and I expect Seattle’s pass catchers to be open much of the day. I think the running game can really get going against the overly aggressive Rams defensive line, especially if Gregg Williams insists on playing 3 safeties and 1 linebacker against power run formations again. Choo Choo!

Don’t forget Seattle was missing a lot of key players in last season’s losses. In week 16, the offensive line featured Alvin Bailey at left tackle and a physically overmatched Patrick Lewis at center. Sowell is at least an upgrade over Bailey and Britt has both looked better than Lewis and is a far superior athlete. Furthermore, Seattle only had Cooper Helfet at tight end as the others were injured. Luke Willson and Brandon Williams will offer some blocking help.

I’m most worried about Webb at right guard getting eaten alive by Aaron Donald. I suspect Britt will have to help Webb, which will leave Glowinski alone to the left. Welcome to the big time kid.

Defensively, Seattle should absolutely dominate this cast of characters the Rams call their offense. Last season, the Rams tight ends gave Seattle some fits but Kam is back now. Remember he missed the first matchup during his holdout and the second game to injury. Kam’s presence should also help with containing Gurley, which was a problem in the second game.

The Rams special teams were pretty decent in week 1, ranking 12^th in weighted S.T. DVOA. I don’t even know what to expect here, however, as special teams seems to be the source of Jeff Fisher’s confounding voodoo magic. Hopefully no animal sacrifice is involved in the special teams meetings.

Prediction

Despite losing 3 of their last 4 matchups, Seattle is still 7-5 against the Rams in the Pete Carroll era and this year’s team is far more complete, healthy, and focused then they did at any point last season.

Next: Wilson will play Sunday, but what about Ifedi?

I think Seattle wins 24-6 behind an early defensive score and 2016 breakout performances from Rawls and Lockett. After week 2, I expect the Seahawks to sit atop both the DVOA and DAVE rankings.