The Path to the (other) Title: Seahawks Week 9 DVOA Preview
By Brad Howell
As with other metrics, the Seattle Seahawks’ DVOA rankings have dropped due to their offensive struggles thus far in the season.
After eight weeks, the DVOA rankings are remaining fairly static. There were only three notable changes in the top 10 this week: Dallas leapt to second after defeating the top ranked Eagles, The Seahawks fell from second to sixth, and Kansas City replaced Arizona at the ten spot.
Although Philadelphia still remains in first place in these rankings, I think Dallas looked like the more dangerous team. Philadelphia is probably more balanced with their above average defense and special teams, but Dallas’s ball control offense is more dangerous for a team like Seattle. Facing Cleveland this week, Dallas has a strong chance to move into first place in the DVOA rankings.
New England continues to work their way up the rankings with Tom Brady back under center and I don’t think there is any question that they are the best team in the NFL today.
Another week, another disappointing offensive performance for Seattle. Considering the strength of the opponent, last week’s game was especially disappointing. I still am stubbornly hoping for a second half breakout, but that seems completely dependent on health at the quarterback position at this point. Sixth place isn’t up to their normal standards, but Seattle is still very much in play for the DVOA title this season.
As always, head over to Football Outsider’s for the full details on the current DVOA standings.
Week 9 Outlook
The key matchup this week is Seattle’s defense against LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor’s third rated rushing attack. Bills running backs, led by McCoy, are averaging just over 5 yards per carry behind FO’s 24th ranked run blocking offensive line – for reference, Seattle has the 27th ranked line.
Shady himself is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and is FO’s 3rd best running back in the NFL, behind only David Johnson and Jay Ajayi. If you think stats are for losers, then I’ll just say McCoy passes the “eye test” as well, looking as shifty and powerful as he did in his pre-Chip Kelly days in Philadelphia.
Seattle’s defense will, of course, miss Michael Bennett but I think his absence is less of a big deal in this matchup as it will be next week against the Patriots. Against Buffalo, the interior players like Reed, Rubin, and McDaniel will be critical for stuffing the inside run game. Additionally, this week will test the outside linebackers and cornerback’s ability to tackle McCoy and Taylor when they attempt to stretch runs outside. Buffalo is the 8th best rushing team at the 2nd level, meaning McCoy is really good once he gets past his below average offensive line.
The matchup for Seattle’s offense doesn’t look too daunting on paper, but this is the same offense that just made the Saints defense look respectable. Seattle has been weakest when facing good outside pass rushers, so pay attention to the status of the Bills sack leader Lorenzo Alexander as he is questionable with a leg injury.
I’d like to see Seattle put a little more effort into the running game early this week. I’m also excited to see what Bevell does with Prosise this week – he can be a major mismatch in the passing game. Overall, I hope to see some offensive balance this week so the occasional deep throw becomes a viable option again.
Next: Chancellor out again vs Bills. Will he ever be back?
Prediction
Unfortunately, I was just about spot on with last week’s prediction – that just felt like a week Seattle was going to lose. It’s too bad the referees had such a significant role in the game as that should never happen. This week, I think the Russell Wilson Seahawks maintain their perfect Monday Night Football record behind another dominant defensive performance: 27-6 Seattle.