The Path to the (other) Title: Seahawks Week 11 DVOA Outlook
By Brad Howell
With their win over a good New England team, the Seahawks DVOA rankings soared into the No. 2 spot, with only Philadelphia above them.
The DVOA 5-Pete just got real folks. After an extremely impressive road win against the New England Patriots last Sunday, Seattle has risen to second in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. Now all that stands between Seattle and the top of the rankings is Philadelphia, who just happen to be the next opponent.
The rest of the top-5 remains the same, albeit reordered. After that, it’s really just a jumbled mess of teams. Only Miami even has half the rating as the fifth best team.
Miami’s rise from 18th three weeks ago to 6th now is nothing short of amazing. The emergence of Jay Ajayi and improved play along the offensive line have turned their season around. That 2-point win way back in week 1 is starting to pay more opponent adjustment dividends now as Miami climbs the board.
As things stand now, Philadelphia is the last opponent of the season with a DVOA ranking even in the top half of the league. Green Bay is the next “toughest” opponent at just 18th overall. This week’s game is the last best chance to make a significant statement in the race to the DVOA title.
Week 11 Outlook
This week’s matchup is basically the complete opposite of last week’s. The Eagles feature an elite defense led by a dominant pass rush opposite a conservative offense led by a rookie quarterback.
I do not expect Carson Wentz and whomever Doug Pederson decides to make his lead running back this week to be very effective in Seattle. In fact, I’m having a difficult time envisioning their offense scoring more than 10 points.
The Eagles are a better rushing team than passing, but not by much. Seattle ranks at the top of the league against the rush, but have been very mortal when opponents stick with their run game. In the last four weeks David Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram, and LeGarrette Blount all put up decent stat lines against Seattle.
I think Philadelphia’s recipe for success is likely to run Ryan Mathews into the ground and hope to limit the number of possessions in this game. Then rely on their elite defense and special teams to try to win a close game.
The Eagles defensive dominance is led by their line, which features the second best adjusted sack rate in the NFL. This is a potential major mismatch for Seattle’s 19th ranked offensive line. While the offensive line has improved recently, Seattle’s offensive tackles will have a difficult time with Brandon Graham and Connor Barwin on the edges. Fortunately, Russell Wilson appears to be mobile again.
On the surface, the Eagles are a dominant defensive team and a brutal matchup for the Seahawks offensive line. On the road though, the Eagles are a completely different team. The disparity between their home and away DVOA is a massive 35.7%, significantly more than any other team in the NFL.
On the season, Philadelphia is 1-4 on the road with the only win against the Bears back in week 2 when they forced Cutler from the game due to injury. I just don’t fear Carson Wentz and I think the Eagles superb pass rush will be somewhat muted in the hostile confines of CenturyLink Field.
Prediction
Well, I pretty much nailed the final score last week but picked the wrong winner. I am definitely okay with being wrong whenever I pick Seattle to lose a game.
I’ve had a few people mention this week’s game as a potential “trap game”, but I’m not picking up that vibe. I think the addition of the amped up Thomas Rawls will ensure nobody sleep walks through this game. Plus, it’s never smart to bet against the Seahawks this deep into November. Seahawks win: 27-13.