No, Russell Wilson does not have a Rams problem

Does Russell Wilson have a Rams problem? The stats and tape says that any issues are overblown.

The only NFC team that Russell Wilson has a losing record against is the STL/LA Rams, with a 4-5 record, including 3 straight losses. At first glimpse, the statistics look ugly: only 9 TDs in 9 games, 9 TDs to 6 INTs, and 37 sacks.

I’m going to furiously knock on all available wood and argue that the issues here are overblown. Specifically, (a) some of the games Seattle has lost since Wilson has taken over are due to reasons that are not likely to have predictive power going forward and (b) Seattle has been better in these games than their record suggests.

Issue #1: 10am road games

Football Outsiders estimates that the disadvantage for west coast teams playing road games at 10am is an extra 3+ points beyond the typical road team disadvantage. In other words, if a west coast team lost a 10am road game by 6 points, then on a neutral field one would expect the two teams to be about equal. Here are the 10am road games the Seahawks played in STL:

• 2012: Seahawks lose by 6 points
• 2014: Seahawks lose by 2 points
• 2015: Seahawks lose by 3 points in overtime

Issue #2: Defensive and special teams TDs

Coming into this season, Wilson’s Seahawks were 4-4 against the Rams. In all 4 of those losses, the Rams scored a non-offensive touchdown:

• 2012: Hekker TD pass
• 2014: trick play punt return TD
• 2015a: Tavon Austin punt return TD
• 2015b: the worst offensive play the Seahawks have ever run

Issue #3: Mitigating circumstances

Returning to Wilson himself, the first time he played the Rams was his 4th NFL start (and only 2nd on the road). The most recent time he played the Rams, he was essentially playing on 1 leg while his receivers were actively undermining him by committing OPI penalties to negate large gains.

Wilson against the Rams

In total, Wilson is 4-5 against the Rams. However, despite 1/3 of those games being played at 10am, the Seahawks have outscored the Rams in those games, 171-150, and Wilson has 7.9 yards/attempt, which is close to his career average of 8.0.

Next: Seahawks have been Kearsed this season

If you throw out the first Rams game, where Wilson wasn’t RUSSELL WILSON yet, and the last game, where he clearly wasn’t healthy, the Seahawks have outscored the Rams 155-122 (good for 4.5 pythagorean wins to 2.5 losses) and Wilson has thrown for 8.1 yards/attempt and only 3 interceptions.

If Wilson doesn’t play like he did Sunday, and if the Rams are prevented from scoring points while their offense isn’t on the field, then Seahawks fans can be cautiously optimistic for Thursday.