Using History to Decide Who Stays and Who Goes for Seahawks

Oh the life of an NFL General Manager! Having to make all kinds of decisions to not only save his or her own job, but to make decisions on who the team will retain or attract.

A GMs Job

I remember early on when John Schneider was introduced as the Seahawks General Manager, it was reported that he somewhat relied on statistics to make decisions for the future of the team. One such statistic was the average career span of an NFL player.

Looking at this year’s crop of players who have one-year remaining on their deals, it intrigued me to see how history can help John make the decision to renew or decline the renewal of the guys whose contracts are up at the end of this season.

With the salary cap, it’s interesting to see how statistics can help a team determine if they should take a chance on re-signing the player (or not).

A player being re-signed to a contract based on his leadership, communication skills and like-ability could work if there was no salary cap. Here’s a breakdown of the 2018 Seahawks free agents and my analysis of whether or not they should be re-signed. This is based on what history and the player’s overall future holds for helping the Seahawks be a championship-caliber team annually. Statistics taken from Sharp Football Analysis.

Tight End (Average career span is 5.5 years)

Jimmy Graham

Graham is entering into his eighth season. I imagine that the average career being at just under six seasons is due to the fact that the position on most teams requires the player to engage in blocking. Over time, having to block DBs, LBs and DEs can take a toll on a player.

Graham, however, was not asked to do much of that in his five seasons in New Orleans. One could argue that he didn’t do much of that his first year in Seattle. Only last season 12s saw him become more physical in the offense.

This physicality wasn’t consistent. Graham, though, creates a matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators and seems to be a good guy in the locker room. My hunch is that he will be re-signed to a three-year, inventive laden extension, either before the season or during this season.

Luke Willson

Willson, similarly to Graham, relies on his speed and catching ability to stay on in the NFL. He shows more physicality in the blocking scheme than Graham. Overall, he’s a good second TE. I think if he were to stay healthy, improve his route running ability and show more leadership, he could be re-signed to another deal. He is entering into his fifth season, which is right about the average for a TE. If he continues the same production he had last season, he could be re-signed to a one-year deal. 

Running Back (Average career span is 4.4 years)

Eddie Lacy

Lacy defected from Green Bay, where he was used quite frequently. His running style makes him take on quite a bit of punishment from opposing defenses. He is entering into his fifth season, which makes him “old” in running back years. This will definitely be a make-or-break season for Lacy. Will he keep his weight down to where Pete Carroll wants it to be? I believe that because there are younger guys at his position on this team, he will be a short-yard running back. This means he will get carries when the team needs him to get three or less yards for a first down or for a touchdown. I think he gets offered a one-year deal at the end of this season at the league average.

Wide Receiver (Average career span is 4.2 years)

Paul Richardson

P-Rich, the thunder to Tyler Lockett’s lightning, is entering his fourth season, all with Seattle. Injuries are his main concern going into his final season on his current contract. He has shown flashes of brilliance. However, if he follows history with other wide receivers, he could very well be done in this league. If he can stay healthy, I see no reason why he doesn’t get offered a one or two year deal at the end of the season.

Guys on the practice squad, including Kyle Lawler, should be considered for contract extensions at the league minimum, unless one of them jumps into a few regular season games due to an injured player. They are all very young and have some ceiling space to grow into possible regular season players.

Offensive line (Average career span is 4.9 years)

Justin Britt

Coming off of a Pro Bowl season, Britt is set to make a little over $886,000 this season. He is in his fourth season and isn’t showing any real signs of body breakdown. He is a candidate to be renewed before the season starts. I see him getting a four or five year deal to secure one of the spots that is the most vulnerable, center on the offensive line.

Luke Joeckel 

Allegedly, early reports are that he is more comfortable in the Seahawks zone-blocking system and is taking to the coaches in Seattle. He is entering his fifth season, just above the average career span of an offensive lineman. He has some injury red flags as well. If he plays at an average level this season and stays healthy, I can see the Seahawks pulling the trigger on a one or two year, incentive laden contract.

Oday Aboushi

I think he will be signed on at the league minimum at the end of the season but I highlight him because I think he is a wild-card on the offensive line. He played sparingly in 2016, but overall he showed durability. The more time he gets in the zone-blocking scheme can only benefit him going forward. Don’t be surprised if we are talking more about him a year from now.