These Seahawks will really take flight this season. Some may be surprising, but they’ll all play a major role in getting Seattle back to the title game.
We’ve featured some great articles about the battles for starting positions. In case you missed one or two, check out our look at who will start among the running backs, the offensive line and the defensive line.
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Time to take a look across the entire team for what I see as the five players who will take major steps forward this season. I’m not saying these are the five most important players, although one of them is certainly critical to the Seahawks success. The key here is these are the five Seahawks that will have the most buzz. In some cases, it might be because their level of play puts them back at the top of the NFL foodchain. In others, it may be that the player has shown flashes of brilliance, and puts it all together for an entire season. And in one case, it’s simply that no one expected this much this soon. Well, no one but the Seahawks.
As the briefest of previews, I will say that I’ve chosen three offensive players and just two on defense. While that might seem strange or possibly even ridiculous for a team as defense-oriented as the Seahawks, my reasoning is simple. It’s hard to break through and have a huge season that stands out when you’re doing it every season. Sorry, but Early Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, you do this all the time. I fully expect each of them to have great seasons. In other shocking news, the sun will rise and the 12s will be loud.
Now for those of you who skip to the last chapter of a book, I’ll drop a hint for you. He wasn’t on the roster last year.
Russell Wilson checks in at number five
At first glance it may seem odd to group Wilson here. Doesn’t he always have great seasons, just like Chancellor, Wagner and Thomas? Of course the answer to that was yes, until last season.
Up until last year, Wilson’s worst season passing was 2014. He “only” had a passer rating of 95.0, and “only” threw 20 touchdowns. He also only threw 7 interceptions, and only ran for over 800 yards and six touchdowns. His rank among NFL quarterbacks by QBR from his rookie season on through 2015: 3rd, 7th, 6th, 4th. You can check Wilson’s stats for yourself, courtesy of pro-football-reference.com.
In 2016, Wilson was hampered by injuries to seemingly everything but his right earlobe. A porous offensive line and a weak running game put too much burden on Wilson. His rank among the league’s quarterbacks dropped to 14th by QBR and 15th by passer rating. So while Wilson has been among the elite up until last season, 2016 unfortunately took him out of that automatic category.
Why will he bounce back? A much improved offensive line, a much improve running game, and much improved health. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Wilson have his best season ever. In fact, I’m cheating a bit by naming the quarterback. For Wilson to have a great season, those units have to be much better than last year. So Justin Britt, George Fant and the rest of the line will have to produce. And they will. In fact, Britt can drop that alternate bit from his Pro Bowl invitation this year.
As for the running backs, it doesn’t matter who’s carrying the load. Whether it’s Lacy, Rawls, Prosise, or the player to be named later, the Seahawks rushing attack will be much better than last year. And that will turn Mr. Wilson loose once again.
Bradley McDougald is the pick for number four
Wait a minute. Bradley “won’t-even-be-a-starting-safety” McDougald? That guy?
Yes, that guy. McDougald will be extremely valuable in the secondary as a backup to the starters, but also as the key piece to a big nickel package. Here, just read what Pete Carroll had to say on the subject.
"“There are ways for us to play a bigger nickel group, and we’re wide open to that flexibility and with Earl and with Kam,” Carroll said in March. “We played over 800 snaps of nickel last year, the most we’ve ever played by far, and there’s different opportunities in early-down situations to vary your groups, which we’ve done sometimes in the past already. We’re open to the competition of it and what the players bring. If they can bring something, hopefully we’ll identify it and we’ll figure out how to tweak things so we can do that. There’s a lot of opportunity for us.”"
Speaking specifically about McDougald, Carroll also said:
"“He’s a good football player. Played really aggressive and tough, was excited about coming here to help us out. Shoot, I think he’s a great guy to add. He has the kind of mentality in guys we are looking for. Has a chip on his shoulder, wants to prove it, he has always had to do that—make his own way. So he’s coming in here to battle with us. It’s a great addition. He has been good enough in the past to move guys around on their own team. There’s a chance we can be creative with some stuff and we’ll look forward to figuring that out.”"
McDougald had 87 and 91 tackles playing both safety positions during his last two seasons with Tampa Bay. Now imagine an offense facing Chancellor, Thomas, Sherman and – well, we’ll get to that last spot soon enough – and having McDougald there as well. Let’s not forget, Chancellor hasn’t played in all 16 games since 2013, and Thomas of course missed time last year.
Is McDougald as good as those two? No, but he isn’t that far off. And as a supporting member of the Legion, he’ll have a huge impact. The Seahawks know all too well the impact he can have on a a game. Just check your memory bank for the Thanksgiving weekend debacle in Tampa. I for one am glad to see McDougald on our side.
Jimmy Graham takes the number three spot
This was the easiest choice of all. Graham was injured coming into camp last season, and still had a decent year. Coming in healthy, you can expect Graham to put up numbers that – okay, got ahead of myself there. No, he won’t put up numbers like he did with the Saints, because Russell Wilson isn’t going to throw the ball 600 times.
That’s no exaggeration, of course. Drew Brees has thrown over 600 passes nine times in the last ten seasons. Jimmy Graham was targeted – are you ready, 12s? – 551 times in his last four seasons with the Saints. Graham had 355 receptions for 46 touchdowns. That’s a catch rate of 64 percent. With the Seahawks last season, Graham was targeted 95 times for 65 catches and six touchdowns. That’s a catch rate of 68.4 percent.
Diving a bit deeper into those numbers, Drew Brees targeted Graham on 20.9 percent of his throws from 2011 through 2014. Wilson targeted Graham on 17.4 percent of his attempts last year. Just a small uptick in targets, especially in the red zone, could make all the difference. Graham only had six catches in the red zone last season, and Coach Carroll has vowed that will change.
"“He’s so much more of a complete player than maybe we thought he would even become, really. So he surprised us. He and Russell are really tuned in. They spend a lot of time together. They communicate beautifully. I think it will hopefully show up as we get closer to the end zone — not quite as productive as we thought we could be. But that’s a big area of focus for us now.”"
Graham led all tight ends in one very big category last season at 14.2 yards per catch. Even with Wilson dialing back on the number of pass attempts, Graham can still have a major impact on the Seahawks push to the title game.
Paul Richardson dashes in at number two
Richardson has shown flashes of brilliance in limited opportunities. Most of those limits were imposed by injuries. We already have a terrific breakdown of Richardson’s potential greatness, so I’ll just refer you to that.
Ah, you’re back. As you can see, Richardson was indeed great when the team needed him most. If you skipped the link, shame on you, but I’ll just mention this. In his last four games (regular and postseason combined) Richardson had 15 catches for 213 yards and two touchdowns. Over a 16 game slate, that’s eight touchdowns, and that would have led the team.
And as is mentioned in the same article, Richardson’s presence gets Jermaine Kearse off the field. Jermaine Kearse, renowned throughout the league for 41 catches on 89 targets. Yes I know Wilson likes him and they have a rapport. I have a feeling that rapport was a lot stronger in 2015, the one and only season in which he caught more than 58 percent of his targets. 2015 was a good year, but Kearse didn’t make anybody forget Steve Largent. If only he could help us forget Percy Harvin…ah, but that’s a subject for another time.
So why Richardson and not Tyler Lockett? To be honest, I’d place them as a dual entry if I could, but that’s not quite playing fair. Besides, the only question for Lockett is his health. He should be back in plenty of time to have on impact on the playoff picture, even if his recovery meets a few hiccups along the way. With Richardson, it’s all on him. Lockett proved himself already. It’s Richardson’s turn to prove he can be part of a great Seahawks aerial attack.
Shaquill Griffin is number one
Yes, I named a rookie as the number one player to have a great season. No, I’m not crazy. Well, not because of this selection. Hear me out, 12s. This kid is the real deal.
We all know that the biggest stumbling block for an NFL rookie is opportunity. And where is the starting right cornerback from 2016, Deshawn Shead? On the shelf with a knee injury. Now Shead hasn’t been ruled out for the season opener. In fact, Pete Carroll said this about Shead.
"“He’s making great progress. He is one of the all-time best healers. He applies himself as well as a person can do in terms of getting back. He’s got all the grit and the perseverance about making it through this as quickly as you possibly can, so he’s doing great.”"
But let’s assume Shead won’t be back for the first few weeks. That’s the most likely scenario, after all. Does that mean the door is wide open for the rookie? Well, I’m sure Jeremy Lane would have a lot to say about that. Or more to the point, play, not say.
Here’s the thing, though. Lane has been with the Seahawks since 2012, and until last season managed just six starts. Not knocking him at all, but there are only a few guys around of the caliber of Richard Sherman.
And that’s where Shaquill Griffin comes back into the picture. Don’t get excited, I’m not saying he’s an All-Pro bonafide member of the Legion of Boom – not yet, anyway. Don’t believe me? Read what Seahawks defensive coordinator Kris Richard had to say about Griffin.
"“He’s got probably one of the best corner minds that we’ve had for a young guy around here. And that’s just regards to leverage, positioning, the understanding of our coverages and where we need tem to be. He’s picked it up fairly quickly. I just know we’re going to be really, really excited to see him strap it up and get out there and actually be able to compete for the football while it’s in the air. That’s kind of going to be the next phase, but his technique has been improving day after day. And he’s got real strength. I think that’s a positive. He has strength in his hands, you can tell he’s a powerful guy. Obviously the speed is there.”"
No, he didn’t say he was the next Richard Sherman. But he’s expected to make a significant contribution even if he doesn’t win the starting job – and he will win that gig. The only corner in the last seven years to have an impact as a rookie? You guessed it – Richard Sherman.
Besides, I cannot wait to hear Griffin during pressers. I mean, just listen to the guy. You know you want this guy to start.
I’m quite certain that at least three of my predictions won’t pan out. And that’s okay. As long as Wilson is one that does, we’ve got the depth everywhere else to still have a great season.