Bradley McDougald will have a huge impact on the Seahawks this season, as much as any move they made this year.
Eddie Lacy gets much more press than Bradley McDougald. Just google “Eddie Lacy Seahawks” and “Bradley McDougald Seahawks” if you don’t believe me. It’s only about 543,000 to 46,500. This isn’t to knock Lacy, not at all. I think it was a smart move to sign him, and a very smart contract, too. I’m just saying that McDougald will prove every bit as important to the Seahawks playoff hopes as Lacy.
Here’s why. McDougald will do much more than sub for Earl Thomas III and Kam Chancellor. I’m not minimizing the importance of his ability to play either safety spot. Thomas missed five games last year with injuries. Last season was the first he’d missed any games, but he did miss time. Chancellor hasn’t played a full season since 2013. Let’s assume Thomas gets back to his full slate of 16 games, though.
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McDougald isn’t at their Pro Bowl level, but he isn’t that far behind, either. Over the last two season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he had 228 total tackles and defensed 14 passes. Thomas had 183 total tackles in his last two full seasons, while Chancellor had 153 tackles. That’s solo tackles plus assists in all cases. Prorated to a full 32 game schedule, that’s 213 tackles. Again, I’m not saying McDougald is right at their level, but he’s much closer than the players the Seahawks have been using as subs.
First, some context. Just how many plays are we talking about? Last season the Seahawks played 1080 defensive snaps. In 2015, they played 996. Good things happen when you run the ball well – like your defense plays 84 fewer snaps. We’ll assume 1,000 defensive snaps, as they should be on the field less than last season. Plus the math is much easier.
Math with Bradley McDougald is fun, kids!
We’ll start with the substitutions. Plug McDougald in for Thomas for just another five percent of his Thomas’ plays. Give the man a bit more rest. Thomas already sits out 2 percent of the plays, or about 20 snaps. Do the same for Chancellor, and that five percent extra per star safety puts McDougald on the field for 140 plays total. That’s the two percent of snaps Chancellor and Thomas already rest, 20 each, plus another 50 snaps each from the additional rest. Add in the two games that Chancellor misses – I hope he misses none, just looking at the history – and McDougald is in for another 100. He’ll rest some too, of course. So we have 200 plays at strong and free safety.
Now let’s get back to that nickel package. Remember, Seattle had over 800 snaps in the nickel package last season. Jeremy Lane or Neiko Thorpe or Shaquill Griffin will get a lot of snaps in the nickel, to be sure. But again, the Seahawks have made it clear they want to play more big nickel. They’ve also made it clear McDougald is their choice for the role. Give McDougald half of those snaps, at a conservative estimate. That’s 400 more plays for McDougald, which puts him on the field for 600 plays, or 60 percent of the defensive snaps. Don’t worry the Seahawks might give up something in coverage skills with McDougald, either. He had ten pass defenses and two interceptions last season. Lane defensed three passes and had zero picks. If you still have doubts about McDougald, I refer you to week 12 of the Seahawks slate last season.
Compared to Eddie Lacy, McDougald will see at least the same number of snaps. At his peak, Marshawn Lynch was on the field for 711 plays. Lynch didn’t have Thomas Rawls or C.J. Prosise ready to step in for him, either. I expect Lacy to see maybe 600 snaps. The Seahawks newest running back will certainly be a big part of the Seahawks success this year. But I’m all in for McDougald to have a huge impact on the Seahawks playoff drive, too.