The Seahawks have a lot of big name free agents this off-season. Is there any chance that Jimmy Graham will be back? More importantly, should he be back?
Jimmy Graham hasn’t exactly had the impact in Seattle that everyone expected when the Seahawks got him from the New Orleans Saints. No secret there, as we and the rest of the western world have written practically millions of words about his production. Those expectations weren’t the most realistic, but at least he found the red zone in 2017. This is hardly the first time we’ve considered if Graham should be re-signed, and likely won’t be the last.
First, let’s take a deeper look at the career of Jimmy Graham. In fact, we’ll start with 2014, his last year with the Saints. Other than his rookie year, Graham had career lows in targets, receptions (tied), yards, average yards per catch, and longest reception. He did catch 10 touchdowns, one better than his previous post-rookie season low. Maybe it isn’t so surprising the Saints were willing to move him after all.
Regardless, 12s expected the player that caught 16 touchdowns and over 1,200 yards. Instead, they got barely over 600 yards and a miserable two touchdowns. Much of that can be blamed on the now departed Darrell Bevell. As Lee wrote a month ago in his look at Graham, “Darrell Bevell, let’s be honest, has no idea what to do with a tight end of Graham’s skill set.” So true. Graham missed five games with a torn patellar tendon, it’s true. But both his targets and catches dropped by one per game. He caught one third as many touchdowns per game. His first year with the Seahawks was certainly disappointing.
Jimmy Graham picked it up for 2016, then had a bizarre 2017
Graham was much better in 2016. He had the highest yards per catch average of his career at 14.2. He had the best catch percentage since his rookie season, at 68.4%. Sadly he only found the end zone six times, but see the Darrell Bevell comment for that. Despite the red zone issues, Jimmy Graham looked good in 2016.
2017, not so much. Coach Bevell remembered Graham was on the team at red zone time, but that was about the only thing that went right for Graham. He didn’t catch a touchdown till week five, then disappeared against the Jaguars and Rams. Two targets and no receptions against Jacksonville, and he was in for 38 snaps. Graham also got penalized for unnecessary roughness in the game. Not his best work.
He could have played like King Kong against the Rams and it wouldn’t have mattered. The Seahawks beat the Cowboys thanks to a ferocious defensive performance. Graham did get the Seahawks on the board near the end of the first half. But that Jacksonville game…that hurt. Graham came up big in several games, but he was practically a no-show in a couple of key losses, too. I’m not knocking ten touchdowns, believe me. But Graham was anything but consistent last season.
Is Jimmy Graham the right choice for the Seahawks?
Jimmy Graham made a cool $10 mil in 2017. The Seahawks are in such dire straights regarding the salary cap, there’s a lot of noise they’ll move Michael Bennett. When you’re considering trading your most consistent defensive end despite the fact your other starting end’s career may be over, you have serious cap issues. It simply makes more sense for the Seahawks to let Graham walk than to trade Bennett. Of course, they may do both.
With the recent coaching changes, it’s obvious Seattle is going to emphasize defense and the running game more than in the past few years. That’s a pretty strong clue that a pass-catching specialist that doesn’t block particularly well will be allowed to leave.
Pro Football Focus ranked Jimmy Graham 33rd in the league for 2017. I’m not prepared to say that’s right, or even makes sense. But, does anyone think he’s close to Rob Gronkowski? Or Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz? Graham is getting paid like those guys, but doesn’t have their all-around game. He’s certainly hasn’t been paid like the 33rd best tight end in the league. For the money the Seahawks paid, he’s been anything but a bargain.
Seattle already has a bargain on the roster
Graham won’t see $10 million a year this time around, not unless some GM is crazy – and there’s no shortage of those. Brock Osweiler, anyone? Regardless, even if Graham signs for $7 million, the Seahawks have more pressing needs. As for alternatives? Luke Willson isn’t exactly Gronk either, but he caught a higher percentage of targets than Graham every year they’ve played together. Willson also caught four touchdowns last year on just 15 receptions, a far higher rate than Graham. Willson is an unrestricted free agent too, but he’s coming off a $1.8 million dollar contract. That’s a lot more affordable for a player that fits the system better.
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Is Luke Willson necessarily the answer? Not really; there is this little thing coming up called the draft. But Willson certainly fits the Seahawks future (and past) scheme better than Jimmy Graham. Graham’s stay was frustrating at times, exhilarating a lot more often, but I believe it’s over.