The Seahawks definitely need to improve their running game to return to the playoffs. Using their first round pick on a running back would be a waste.
The Seahawks will have the 18th overall pick in this year’s NFL draft. The odds of them actually keeping that pick are almost nil, of course. I’m just as likely to win the Pulitzer Prize; please, you’ve read my stuff. So this is something of a “what if?” piece. Like those “What if Batman fought Iron Man?” questions you had as a kid. Or last week, if you’re me. Batman wins, of course. Now, Batman versus Black Panther, there you’ve got a fight.
But let’s pretend the Seahawks actually use their first round pick for just the second time in six years. Drafting 18th, who would be available for them? Knowing where running backs have gone in past drafts would be a bit of helpful information, so let’s take a quick look at that.
In 2017, only two running backs were picked in the first round. Leonard Fournette was the fourth overall pick, and Christian McCaffrey was the eighth. Both had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage, both gone long before Seattle would have had a chance at them if they’d been in this year’s draft.
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2016 saw just one back taken in the first round. That would be Ezekiel Elliott, taken fourth overall. Elliott is certainly a bona-fide star. Again, wouldn’t have been available at 18. 2015 is a bit more interesting. Two running backs were take, but they were drafted 10th and 15th overall. That puts them both in striking range of a trade up. Would the Seahawks make that move to get Todd Gurley at 10th, or Melvin Gordon at 15th? I think they may have done so. That is, if their biggest need was at running back.
Can the Seahawks get a quality back after the first round?
Yes, obviously. I could go on with previous drafts, but you have to go back to 2012 to find the next running back taken in the first round. Even more instructive is who’s been taken in later rounds. Just a quick look at recent drafts:
Third round picks:
Alvin Kamara – over 1,500 yards from scrimmage, 13 touchdowns.
Kareem Hunt – over 1,700 total yards, 11 touchdowns.
Tevin Coleman – over 900 combined yards in 2016 and 2017 as part of the Falcons tandem.
David Johnson – over 1,000 total yards as a rookie, over 2,100 total in 2016.
Fifth round picks:
Alex Collins – He sure came through for the Ravens. Over 1,100 combined yards in 2017.
Jay Ajayi – 1,400 yards in 2016, then escaped the Dolphins for 5.8 yards per carry for the Eagles.
Pretty sure we all know it’s possible to even find value in the seventh round, right? And that leads me to exactly why the Seahawks won’t be drafting a running back in the first round. Or in the second or third, if they happen to trade down. “If” they trade down – that’s comedy gold right there.
Seahawks already have talent in the backfield
Anyway, there’s certainly no guarantee the Seahawks would find another Chris Carson in the seventh round in 2018. The good news is, they don’t have to; they already have him. And they have Mike Davis as well. Carson is coming back from injury, and Davis got dinged a few times. I’m not suggesting the Seahawks can rely on these two for 16 games each. Sadly, we know Seattle can’t depend on C.J. Prosise, the only other running back on the roster, to make it through the season.
But both Davis and Carson showed they can get the job done when healthy. We’ve seen that higher draft picks aren’t necessarily the answer. Second round pick Christine Michael, anyone? We’ve also seen that splashy free agent signings don’t always pan out. No, I’m not even typing his name. It’s too painful to recall how high my expectations were for him. I wasn’t the only one, but self-ridicule is as far as I’ll go.
Seahawks have more pressing needs than another running back
Yes, Seattle needs to pick up another back to challenge for the starting role. Whether through the draft or free agency doesn’t matter. What does matter is they have glaring holes on the offensive line. The Seahawks currently have two running backs that can get the job done. They could use an upgrade, but they desperately need to upgrade at tackle and guard.
Pro Football Focus graded left tackle Duane Brown at 77.9. It wasn’t such a pretty picture to the right of center. Germain Ifedi graded 59th out of 81 tackles. He was 73rd in run blocking. You’ll never guess who was ranked dead last overall at tackle. Aw, darn, you got it! It was Rees Odhiambo. The Seahawks need help there. George Fant at right tackle, perhaps? That would be great.
At guard, the picture was even worse. Luke Joeckel was graded Seattle’s best at 44.5, and he’s got his bags packed. Oday Aboushi had a decent rookie year in 2014, but turned in his third straight season of mediocrity in 2017. With another year under his belt, Ethan Pocic could definitely step up. His versatility is great, but the Seahawks really need some consistency on the line.
Until the line is fixed, the running backs don’t matter
The Seahawks have critical needs on the offensive line that simply must be addressed. They could have Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, and even he’d have trouble picking up yards until the line is fixed. As a matter of fact, he did. That’s exactly why he’s in Oakland now. By the way, if you missed your chance at a Beastmode bobblehead, they’re still available. Somebody picked one up just a couple hours ago, in fact. Hmmm…maybe there’s a weird trade rumor out there. Nah. Just a fan being a fan.
Remember, Alex Collins couldn’t get anything done with the Seahawks, but was able to fulfill his potential for the Ravens. Fix the offensive line, and the talent we have now will look much better.