With the 18th pick in the 2018 draft, the Seattle Seahawks select…?
The suspense is killing us! Will the Seahawks trade down like they have since Moses parted the Red Sea, or will they find a must-have in the first round?
As noted previously on this site, the Seahawks could actually confound their past draft history and trade up for a future star. That’s a great idea, except that I’m terrified that they’d wind up with the 2018 version of Ryan Leaf, no matter who they select.
People grouse about Seattle’s 2011 first round pick James Carpenter, but he’s been in the league for seven years now. As it turned out, he was a serious reach that early, but he’s still a decent player, unlike a lot of first round picks that barely hung around long enough to ruin their team for a season or two.
Time to prognosticate. The first question is this: what do the Seahawks truly need, and do they need a first round talent? That’s technically two questions, but you don’t have all day to read this.
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The answer depends on two situations: the never-ending “will Seattle trade Earl Thomas?”, and “will Kam Chancellor ever play again?” I say no to the first question. We’ve covered it before, but basically no one is giving anything approaching real value for top players this year. Then again, Thomas has made it clear he isn’t afraid to hold out for the extension he wants. While I really doubt he’ll be traded, he still may not be around for week on of the season.
The second situation, Kam Chancellor’s health, is much dicier. At this time there’s no way to know if he’ll be back for 2018. As of right now, the Seahawks are facing the strong possibility they may have a starting safety tandem of Bradley McDougald and Mo Alexander. If the situation hasn’t changed by April 26th, Seattle’s biggest need would be at safety.
Seahawks have two options at safety, and only one is the smart choice
If that’s the case, they have two options as I see it. One, they could trade up to get the player everyone is saying is the best safety in the draft, Derwin James. Most draft sites have him gone by the seventh pick, so John Schneider would have to work some real draft day magic to move up that far.
Two, Schneider could move down and still get the player who best suits their need. That would be Ronnie Harrison, the hard-hitting safety from Alabama. Many sites see him as the second-best safety in the draft. Luckily for the Seahawks, he happens to be the best fit for them. He’s an absolute beast against the run, and had a passer rating against of just 38.9 last year. That’s actually better than James mark of 46.2.
Another big factor in Harrison’s favor is his draft ranking. Instead of moving up to get their man, the Seahawks can slide down to the second round, still get their guy, and pick up an extra couple of picks. Those extra picks will be at a premium this year, as currently the Seahawks next pick after the first round won’t be until Saturday in the fourth round. Drop down, get the best fit, and grab two more players. That’s the Seattle way. Their must-have is waiting in the second round.
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Just in case you need a reminder that the top-ranked player in the draft isn’t always the best at his position, think of this. T.J. Ward, Taylor Mays, and Amari Spievey were all drafted ahead of Kam Chancellor. I’m comfortable with the Seahawks not going after the top-ranked guy.