The Seahawks landed the big receiver they’ve wanted for years. Can Brandon Marshall really turn back the clock and light it up?
The Seahawks watched 101 receptions and 16 touchdowns walk away this offseason, as both Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson went to new teams. A lot of people wondered how Seattle would replace those catches. Now we know Brandon Marshall is expected to be a big part of the answer.
Well, maybe he will be. Marshall has racked up some huge numbers over his career. He has six seasons with over 100 catches, with a career high of 118 in 2012 with the Chicago Bears. Marshall has topped 1,000 receiving yards eight times. His career high of 1,508 also came in 2012. That was back when Jay Cutler resembled an NFL quarterback.
And there’s the rub. At times Marshall has been one of the best receivers in the league. His best seasons would replace Graham and Richardson’s combined output last year. Unfortunately he’s also had some very forgettable seasons. Take his second, and last, season with the New York Jets for example. It was truly forgettable.
More from 12th Man Rising
- 4 prospects Seahawks could reach for at No. 20 in 2023 NFL Draft
- Seattle Seahawks Mock Draft: Post-first wave of free agency
- Seahawks podcast: A review of the first week of free agency
- 4 experiments the Seattle Seahawks could cut short in 2023
- 3 pros and cons of Seattle Seahawks drafting Anthony Richardson
Marshall had a great first season with the Jets in 2015. He had over 100 catches, over 1,500 yards and a career high 14 touchdown catches. The wheels came off in 2016. He only caught 46 percent of his targets, saw his receptions drop from 109 to 59, and had three touchdowns. It’s no surprise the Jets happily watched him go to the Giants.
If the wheels came off with the Jets, the engine block cracked with the Giants. After just 18 catches for 154 yards in five games, Marshall injured his ankle and was gone for the season. Given that Marshall averaged just 8.6 yards per catch and had zero touchdowns, it isn’t surprising the Giants allowed him to take his talents elsewhere in 2018.
What can the Seahawks expect from Marshall?
I’d say they can expect more than the Giants got out of him, at least per catch. For those scoring at home, Marshall would have had 58 catches for just under 500 yards over a full season in 2017. I’d peg his productivity somewhere in the middle of his two years with the Jets, just on the lower end. When Marshall snagged those 14 touchdowns in 2015, he was targeted 173 times.
That is not going to happen on the Seahawks. Doug Baldwin has never gotten more than 125 targets, so you can be sure Marshall will be getting a lot less than that. Even if he has a great camp and beats Tyler Lockett for the number two receiver spot, we’re still looking at a top end of about 90 targets for Marshall.
If Marshall pulls in 60 percent of those, about what he averaged in his good seasons, that’s right at 54 receptions. He’s averaged 12.7 yards per catch in his career, so we’ll be generous and give him that. That’s 685 yards, not too bad for the second wideout on a running team. And we do expect to be a running team. He has 82 touchdowns in his career. Based on his career touchdown average, you could expect Marshall to pull down five touchdown passes.
Again, that’s if we get the good Brandon Marshall. At best, if he turns back the clock to 2016, the Seahawks should be very happy. Just as the expectations for Jimmy Graham were completely unrealistic, there is no way Brandon Marshall will crank out another season like 2015. The opportunities simply aren’t there, and wouldn’t be even if he was the number one receiver.
Seahawks don’t need Marshall to be a Pro Bowler
Throwing the ball 170 times to one receiver has never been the Seahawks game, and it’s much less likely to be their game in 2018. Seattle doesn’t need to replace all 101 of the receptions from Graham and Richardson. They just need Brandon Marshall to be a solid target, particularly in the red zone. That is the one area that Jimmy Graham really came through last season. At 6’4″ and 229 pounds, Marshall should be able to make a very comfortable living in the red zone this season.
One thing to keep in mind, too. Marshall has never played with a quarterback nearly as good as Russell Wilson. He has been on the receiving end of passes from Jake Plummer, Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, Cutler again, Josh McCown, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and one of Eli Manning’s worst seasons. No one will mistake any of those performances for a Russell Wilson season. That alone gives me hope for a resurgence by Marshall.
Marshall doesn’t need to be a Pro Bowler, which is good, because they’re certainly not paying him like one. He signed a one year contract reportedly in the neighborhood of $2 million. For that money, 50 catches, 650 yards and five touchdowns is a great bargain. One last note on why I like this signing: Marshall can block. Even last year, which was basically a complete washout for him, Pro Football Focus graded him at 72.5 for his run blocking. That put him in the top ten of all wide receivers. Yeah, we told you the Seahawks are getting the running game back.