Thomas is too valuable for the Seahawks to move for a pick
Earl Thomas will likely be another player to have great seasons after 29. Since we’re talking about the Seahawks trading Thomas now in his age 29 season, the cream of the crop averaged about three top seasons from age 29 on. That’s defined as an approximate value of at least ten points by pro-football-reference.com. Thomas has averaged just under 11 points per 16 game season in his career, hitting 14 in both 2012 and 2013. He shows no signs of slowing, as we already noted.
So if Thomas plays at the level of the best safeties age 29 up – and there’s no reason to think he won’t – he’d provide between 30 and 45 points of approximate value over the next four seasons. That’s not as much as the average first round pick’s value, but remember that was over six and a half seasons. Over four seasons, the numbers could swing in the favor of Thomas. And don’t forget, more players like Courtney Brown and Ron Dayne get drafted than Alexander and Urlacher. You really want to trade Thomas for a second round pick? For a chance to draft Ike Charlton? No thanks; I’ll keep the Hall of Famer.
Thomas is the best player at his position in the league right now. So please tell me how it makes any sense for the Seahawks to trade that value away for anything less than a first round pick. Personally, I wouldn’t do it even then. It only makes sense if the season goes in the tank and Seattle has nothing to play for. For a player like Khalil Mack, of course you make the move. For now, Seattle is back on track, and you don’t trade the best player in the game for a roll of the dice.